Nitty looking BB leads into 2 players after cold calling 3bet

The BB is 17/12, only over 50 hands though. He can be protecting smaller overpairs here, but also, since we're kind of deep, he can be cold calling preflop for sets, especially given positions and that it goes multiway.

I don't think given position he leads AcKc/AcQc, since he'd be hoping I'll bet and the CO may call so he can C/R. I think his leading range is predominantly TT/JJ/QQ/88/55/44. 9 combos of sets and 18 of overpairs.

I partly want to call and let him value town himself, but I don't like giving the CO a good price on this board. I kind of want to raise/fold too.

His sizing looks odd, but I'm split between feeling that it's an overpair betting "just enough" for protection (but if that was the case, I think he should bet bigger given it's multiway and the board is so wet), or on the other hand that it could be a set inducing a raise.

Poker Stars, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

SB: $10.44 (104.4 bb)
BB: $23.93 (239.3 bb)
UTG: $10.65 (106.5 bb)
Hero (MP): $20.69 (206.9 bb)
CO: $10.33 (103.3 bb)
BTN: $10.15 (101.5 bb)

Preflop: Hero is MP with A A
UTG raises to $0.30, Hero raises to $0.90, CO calls $0.90, 2 folds, BB calls $0.80, UTG folds

Flop: ($3.05) 8 4 5 (3 players)
BB bets $1.35

IDK if he's calling BB w/ 55-. I'd include only half of those combos when thinking about his range PRE. I'd also be including more suited braodways and AXs if he's playing 99-66. He's deep enough with you to play T9s and some other SC's - keeping his 17/12 in mind, these are less likely.

I think there's too much in his range PRE to assume he's only got overpairs and sets. There's just always gonna be FD's in there.

I think there's enough in his range PRE that it's not out of the question that he's donking some of his air OTF. (Tight doesn't always mean good, but it does always mean disciplined. A disciplined player at 10NL may have any adjustments that work... it isn't out of the question to pick up on when you donk and everyone folds, that you can bluff there.)

I think I'm not folding AA to one bet OTF in many situations. Most of them include a ridiculous overbet.

I think a raise is probably ABC standard, here. Given how deep you are, even more so. If he takes a cheap draw and then further reduces the cost of the river card by betting into a smaller pot OTT, then he's just getting away with murder on all of his draws.

I think raise/fold is understandable, but he has good equity against anything except sets with his AXcc hands. I think you have to raise/raise here if you have any sense that he has a shoving range OTF that includes NFD, or pr+FD or straight +FD hands (A7cc could a fine hand to play with here from his perspective... it has 33% against just sets, and over 45% against your AA).

I did some CREV on this, I agree he may not be cold calling with the smaller pairs, even this deep, so if we give him 88-QQ, ATs+, KQs, KQo, AQo+ preflop, then if he donks his flushdraws, overpairs and sets, then I raise and he folds his overpairs and jams his sets and flushdraws, calling his jam has a +ve EV of 9bb for me. It's a bit better obviously if he also continues with his QQ/JJ, which probably depends how he sees me. For simplicity I've assumed the CO is uninvolved and folds the flop.

If I call the flop, that has an EV of 33bb, assuming the following turn action: he check-calls QQ/JJ on the turn, check-folds his smaller overpairs, bets sets and flushdraws again and I call again (the turn call for me is here is very marginally +ev).

For river play I assumed, for the sake of simplicity, that he bets sets again and I fold, or it checks down.

So it looks like calling the flop is better than raise/fold, but I'm not entirely satisfied with my analysis and I find it hard to think about the flop because of the various possibilities on later streets - involve the CO and it gets worse.

I think we're losing to 3 combos against BB. I think he has 88 pre but not 44/55/67s. He can have 99-QQ, and some KQcc etc. I'd say this flop donk really doesn't look like 88, given the sizing. CO being in the hand makes it awkward for sure, but I'm still raising because this flop bet looks like a blocker with a draw. If CO 3bets, I can't fold fast enough. But I think I'm willing to take on BB here. If BB 3bets our raise, well I very likely call and proceed to call it down on non club runouts.

BB and CO are capped strictly to JJ/QQ and AK in my experience in these spots. I'm calling to keep CO and BB in and calling turn and possibly river depending on sizing, timing and run out. The issue though is that we're face up as KK+ in villain's eyes, so we can probably find a river fold if facing bombs, since this guy isn't going bet bet broke with JJ/QQ multiway.

You should definitely look to incorporate villain's line if you do flop it in this situation-it's going to be far and away the most profitable line imo.

Bean Counter nailed this one.

You play poker for years and years watching especially-tight TAggs cold calling OOP, and you keep think you're going to be surprised by what they showdown, but no, the pretty much show up with non-nut premiums: QQ/JJ, AK. There are exceptions and you have to be ready to reevaluate if things go fucky, but it's safe to assume hands like those until proven otherwise.

Anyway, his sizing on the flop looks exactly like a tentative overpair that is blocking/probing/protecting because they hate all their other options. If we already thought small PPs were unlikely, then this is *certainly* not the standard for an extra-tight TAgg to play a set on a sopping wet board 200bbs deep. It would make sense for him to do this with a draw if he were planning on dropping the hammer on future streets, but we're talking about a different kind of thought process for a completely different player at this point.

I would call most turns (or if checked, bet something inviting), and again, I have to agree with Bean Counter that if he bet/bet/bombs, then it's time to reval.

Of course I'm generalizing because all sorts of cards can hit and CO can do all sorts of things, but I expect everyone to play very straightforward for the remainder of the hand given the circumstances.

Given stacks I think BB could end up calling a fair number of pairs. CO as well.

Flop is definitely a WA/WB spot, where i'd expect to be WA more often than WB. I think if we raise, he can probably find a fold of TT-QQ on the flop or turn. Barring some aggressive dynamic, I'd just call down.

Call/re-eval, this spot becomes interesting with the Ac.