Massive station nitfolds AA

Villain is 22/20, stolen 50% from the button so far. Too few hands for postflop stats (65).

I think it's so easy for him to have a set here and a made straight is entirely reasonable too, he's also got 2pr coming out of his ass. Even against his OESDs I'm not so much better than flipping. Against an overall range of [QQ-99,KQs,QJs,JTs,KQo,QJo] I'm crushed.

Solid fold, or am I suffering from MUBS?

Poker Stars, $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

BTN: $25 (100 bb)
Hero (SB): $49.79 (199.2 bb)
BB: $26 (104 bb)
UTG: $25 (100 bb)
MP: $25 (100 bb)
CO: $13.25 (53 bb)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A A
3 folds, BTN raises to $0.62, Hero raises to $2, BB folds, BTN calls $1.38

Flop: ($4.25) T J 9 (2 players)
Hero bets $3, BTN raises to $8.13, Hero folds

Fold looks good on this board and given villain's sizing is bigger than a typical 3bp bluff size at these stakes.

OOP I would 3b bigger for sure, to around $2.30ish. As played, yah this board is pretty brutal.

You can just do an EV calculation here, and assume you have no SD value (ie: facing a shove). You need 40% here pretty much vs his calling range (worst case scenario).

Seems pretty bleak:


Board: Ts Jh 9c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 23.594% 22.31% 01.28% 5522 317.50 { AcAd }
Hand 1: 76.406% 75.12% 01.28% 18593 317.50 { QcQs, QdQh, JJ-99, AJs, KQs, JTs, JTo }

Looks like a solid fold to me