KQo steal vs nit, K225T and river aggro

villain is shaping up nit over about 60 hands, lithuanian, on several tables, 13-7-1 over sample
snap fold river i guess? would KT be a call here? AA?

5 Players

Stacks:
UTG 116bb
CO 125bb
daven (BTN) 100bb
SB 99bb
BB 135bb

Pre-Flop: , 5 players) daven is BTN
2 folds, daven raises to 3bb, SB calls 1 fold

Flop: (7bb, 2 players)
SB checks, daven bets 5bb, SB calls

Turn: (17bb, 2 players)
SB checks, daven bets 15bb, SB calls

River: (47bb, 2 players)
SB bets 38bb, daven ??

I normally call in game and get shown it close to 100%. I mean this guy could be leading a busted flush draw and comfortably give us the odds to call, but players at these stakes would normally just check it down or bluff some retarded size. From villains perspective you look exactly like Kx and most people wont fold it but will check back the river, so his line kind of makes sense in terms of value for the 7 likely value combos he has.

Anyway, I should think if you folded vs this line every time, you're rarely going to be making a mistake and not many regs will be good enough to exploit it. What does your database tell you if you filter for villain taking this line and you calling?

Originally Posted by The Bean Counter

What does your database tell you if you filter for villain taking this line and you calling?

that occasionally i get lucky and split the pot, cheers for the sanity check!