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Originally Posted by surviva316
Any reason to believe he's tilting (has he lost a big hand in the last hand or two or maybe three)?
Has he done this before, or have his 3bs been reasonably sized?
Barring any good reason for him to do this with anything other than premiums, I'd fold, but the above are the most common good reasons I can think of.
Not much swayed by the high 3b%, unless he's been doing this or something like this before. He probably recognizes that people notice he's reraising a lot and thinks this is a good way to trap with premiums. Even him being Spanish wouldn't sway me for the same reason.
I had no indication he was tilting.
This was the first time he'd done this sort of thing as far as I had seen.
Originally Posted by Outlaw
I agree that villain is unlikely to be shoving with AA/KK and probably not doing so with QQ either. I am guessing he has 77-JJ, AJ+. Based on the information provided, I call TT+, AK here. I think folding here is a pretty big mistake without a strong read.
A couple of questions though.
What is your steal percentage? Or have you stolen a bunch of hands in a row on this table?
Has button lost a big pot recently or been caught in a bluff?
Depending on your answers, here is a conservative Pokerstove:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 60.089% 59.05% 01.04% 345774480 6109608.00 { JJ }
Hand 1: 39.911% 38.87% 01.04% 227614272 6109608.00 { QQ-88, AQs+, AQo+ }
The cool thing is, even against a much tighter shoving range you are doing alright.
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 43.229% 41.86% 01.37% 176310408 5780460.00 { JJ }
Hand 1: 56.771% 55.40% 01.37% 233355456 5780460.00 { TT+, AKs, AKo }
My steal % is usually around 35-40%. I'm usually really active OTB and in the CO and though I don't remember if I had raised a bunch of times in a row I'm assuming he perceives me as stealy.
General consensus seems to be this is a fold until we see him do this kind of thing a couple more times, more information needed.
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