how many overpairs do we put villain on?

Seat 1: SB (18.66).
Seat 3: BB (16.14).
Seat 4: MP (25.35).
Seat 5: Hero (43.45).
Seat 6: BTN (27.44).
MP raises (.75) Hero is dealt and raises (2.25), BTN calls, SB folds , BB folds, MP calls


*** FLOP ***: [ ] POT = $7.10


MP checks, Hero bets ($4), BTN folds, MP calls


*** TURN ***: [ ] [] POT = $15.10


MP checks, Hero checks


*** RIVER ***: [ ] [] POT = $15.10

MP bets $10.50, hero ??

stats for villain

VPIP=30/PFR=23/3B= 7.3/F23B=53
4B=6.7/F24B=50
WTSD%=20/F2CBET=52

What kind of hands is villain calling 3bs OOP with? Is he set mining? Does he call hands like 67s or 78s to 3bs OOP? If he calls hands like that OOP to 3bs, then it seems really easy to exploit.

With that said, try to not think of this one hand as a standalone hand. Think of the same action being done over infinite hands. The amount of time he will call 3bs with hands like that OOP and C/f or C/C then C/f (or even get it in with worse) will be greater in $ than the amount of times he hits and takes your entire stack.

What I would personally do in this situation is widen my 3b value range and increase my 3b amount to 10-11bb. I like to keep it 8-9ish if my 3b range is more polarized against villain. Bet bigger on flop and happily bet/get it in on turn if he happens to have 77, 67, 78 or set.

Originally Posted by Sup3rM4N

What kind of hands is villain calling 3bs OOP with? Is he set mining? Does he call hands like 67s or 78s to 3bs OOP? If he calls hands like that OOP to 3bs, then it seems really easy to exploit.

With that said, try to not think of this one hand as a standalone hand. Think of the same action being done over infinite hands. The amount of time he will call 3bs with hands like that OOP and C/f or C/C then C/f (or even get it in with worse) will be greater in $ than the amount of times he hits and takes your entire stack.

What I would personally do in this situation is widen my 3b value range and increase my 3b amount to 10-11bb. I like to keep it 8-9ish if my 3b range is more polarized against villain. Bet bigger on flop and happily bet/get it in on turn if he happens to have 77, 67, 78 or set.

I think hes a setminer. I remember in the hand that I was thinking he wants me to bet the turn so he can shove, I checked and he insta-half pot. which sends me to the tank, I cant believe he would do this with TT or JJ so what can I really beat?

my 3bet vs. him is actually closer to 10% because he calls resteals with a set range. his stats don't ramp up towards the button, theyre pretty consistent/ also this is the only hand in database where he donk lead after I missed a CB. for any street. so it kind of makes me sway in the "just muck and move on" im printing money off this guy in the long run no reason to look him up light in a spot where hes got us crushed a lot. ( donk leading river, and being know for setmining)

Meh, I doubt villain is decent enough to realise he's perceived to have all sets and straights here and therefore turn tt-qq into a bluff against you with this particular sizing. Your typical 25nl player is normally stupid enough to bet river here with tt-qq in my experience tho, thinking they're doing so for value. How many combos of these overpairs or random spaz do you realistically need to make the river a call?

Do you think it better to bet/food half pot on the turn? That's not me saying I think it is better by the way.

Originally Posted by The Bean Counter

Do you think it better to bet/food half pot on the turn?

yes.

You don't think he could be stabbing with AK/AQ?

Originally Posted by Timlagor

You don't think he could be stabbing with AK/AQ?

the sample size is 500 hands, so no prolly not. 52% F2CB usually means he has something, the flop call villain timed down pretty long (he was playing 4tables and didn't have cards as I was at all 4 tables) so I assumed he was debating raising/folding. turn he tank checks, and after I take a few secs to check back he insta-bet the river. his name blinked maybe once or twice so he was just waiting for the buttons to pop up for him to bet. in hindsight I should have called I think. 2.43 to 1 = 29% equity OTR. TT are the only overpair we beat. as his 4b range is JJ+. which means he has air/shit that beats us. maybe its a fold, idk seems like a neutral spot no matter what I do fml.

Originally Posted by acg123

idk seems like a neutral spot no matter what I do fml.

This is the thing with a lot of hands. If you start working through the combos that realistically beat you on the river, and then how many worse value combos and bluff combos villain needs to be betting, you'll realise that a lot of these spots are close and not a huge deal to your bottom line overall, compared to say, a decision as to what combos to cbet on the flop and how much on different flop textures.

That said, you can generally assume that most 25nl and lower players are under-bluffing in most river spots, especially when out of position and no draws seem to brick. This is especially true when facing 3 barrels against non-aggrotards. Most micro players just don't have it in their arsenal, and you can arguably overfold.

Originally Posted by acg123

yes.

Why?

Originally Posted by The Bean Counter

Why?

because I like bet/food. lol

no seriously, I don't think villain will ever jam with worse vs. turn bet, he can call with TT, he 4bets JJ+ pre so any other overpair we would of heard from, 99 too I guess. given line it looks a lot like pocket 99 with the speed he bet the river. either way I def. like bet/folding turn better than checking because we will be bluffed OTR some non-zero % and we get value from worse OTT where OTR its more of a guessing game. even a non-agro fish will stab a river every once in awhile. in the moment, getting to showdown cheap seemed like the best play with villains 4bet freq. now I think different, and for that...I thank you. lol