|
Lacking reads, I tend to assume a turn raise is strong, especially on a rainbow board where villain hasn't simply picked up a backdoor flush draw.
The preflop open is on the big side, but if people are calling x5 opens, it's fine. Flop bet is fine, it's rainbow and there's not many straight draws, so we want value from worse Ax and some 88/99/87s type hands, while also wanting to cbet our KQ hands without it being too expensive. Pot size flop bet would be bad, half pot is about right. If people are calling flop bets light, you can increase this, but don't default to pot size bets on relatively dry boards unless people are really bad.
Turn, sizing is fine, but we can check here too, hoping to induce bluffs from his floats. His 89s AT and TT get there, all in his range, and he could even have 89o, or a flopped set he slow played, while there isn't much worse he can call a second bet with. OK we choose to bet, and we're raised. This is now a clear fold unless we have good reason to think this guy is getting out of line. You decide to call a $25 raise into a $114 pot leaving $16 behind. This is terrible, if you're not folding this then shove it. But it's a fold.
River, well we're pot committed now, we have insane pot odds, we can't fold.
|