|
Pot is 164bb, 77bb to call
We can reasonably expect another 44bb to go in, and we're drawing on the nuts with spades, while K's and 8s are obviously huge enough for us to consider nut cards too. So it's a 77bb call into effectively a 208bb pot. We're getting just under 3:1, meaning we need around 28% equity.
With 13 outs from 46 cards, we have around 28% equity.
Man this is super, super close.
When we're raised by the loose passive guy, I'm convinced that he has aces up at the very least. He's passive and is putting 90bb in at the turn. He has better than us, always. He's never bluffing here. So our showdown value against him on the turn is zero.
The aggro donk, I'm not folding this against him for 100bb on the turn. I'd consider our 2pr to have enough showdown value that the draws are a bonus for when he has better than us.
I think this is really close in terms of EV, and since we have 2pr with nut flush draw, it's practically impossible to fold this. This would be really close in PLO too, although I'd likely tank fold this spot in PLO due to the risk of KK and other spade draws blocking.
|