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Which is the hand that plays the best against Aces? And for how much?

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  1. #1
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    Default Which is the hand that plays the best against Aces? And for how much?

    A simple question every one has to know the answer to. But it may turn that no one knows it

    Follows my letter to givememyleg_flopturnriver.com, which advised me to open a thread.

    Good reading and good thinking.

    ---

    Hello,

    Please, see what is my problem. I want to know which are the pocket cards that play the best against Aces. All these more than 15 years that I play Hold'em, I thought that these are 87 suited. Yes, but when accidentally tryed on PokerStove some 65s they turned to be better. I was tottally astonished and tryed some calculators.

    Here are the results (in %) I obtained:
    1 - CardPlayer (PokerListing is the same but work very slowly)
    2 - PokerStove (PokerRanger gives the same results but arounded to the hundredth)
    3 - CardsChat
    4 - Old FlopTurnRiver (as a couple of months ago)
    5 - New FlopTurnRiver converter

    1 2 3 4 5
    JTs 21.55 21.717 21.88 21.35 21.42(0.35 tie)
    T9s 22.61 22.765 22.43 22.50 22.66(0.33)
    98s 22.47 22.623 22.11 22.40 22.27(0.30)
    87s 22.87 23.021 23.33 22.97 23.02(0.28)
    76s 22.87 23.033 23.55 22.73 22.88(0.34)
    65s 22.87 23.056 23.23 22.51 22.87(0.39)

    Also I tryed your plain text odds calculator but received some error - Backend error:
    ----dropbox

    Well, it is of no practical importance these tenths, or hundredths of the percentage, but they have its theoretical meaning. I know that you use some optimization methods (I had red the source code of PokerStove, which is no more supported, and the author used some pre-calculated tables for faster obtaining the results), but the truth has to be one! And I expect you to help me to find it.

    Also, I had found this thread "Why is 56s best hand against pocket Aces?":
    ------
    (Use a search for me not to give a link to an other forum)

    Have a good day and all the best.

    Т П

    P.S. I lost one hour to cope with this software. That is why I rarely post anywhere!
  2. #2
    spoonitnow's Avatar
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    Fun and somewhat related question: Which Ax hand performs the best against AA all-in pre-flop?

    Answer: ATs
  3. #3
    Quote Originally Posted by spoonitnow View Post
    Fun and somewhat related question: Which Ax hand performs the best against AA all-in pre-flop?

    Answer: ATs
    Hmmm...that's interesting. How much of a reduction in equity are we looking at when talking about ATo instead of ATs?
  4. #4
    Interesting thoughts,
    it was worth making the thread.
  5. #5
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    Quote Originally Posted by BigSlickBaby View Post
    Hmmm...that's interesting. How much of a reduction in equity are we looking at when talking about A5s instead of ATs?
    fyp
  6. #6
    I don't really know why I need to know the answer to this. Whatever hand performs best against AA still perofrms like shit against it, in aipf situations. I know I'd rather be setmining vs AA than straight or flush mining. Any 66-99 is performing equally well and reduces AA's straight odds, so those hands are the ones I'd expect to perform best in terms of street-by-street poker.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  7. #7
    Quote Originally Posted by daven View Post
    fyp
    I am actually surprised there is a difference between ATs and A5s vs AA aipf. I'm assuming the difference is the ridiculously low chance of 5's full getting counterfeited, such as a 55777 board, whereas ATs holds up when the board is TT777.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  8. #8
    Learned something new. I didn't know ATs performs the best against AA all-in pre-flop
  9. #9
    Quote Originally Posted by ManchesterUnited View Post
    Learned something new. I didn't know ATs performs the best against AA all-in pre-flop
    Looks like you might not have learned.
    See first post; 65s apparently performs best against AA all-in pre-flop.

    (from 2nd post, A10s is only the best Ax hand, many other non ace hands perform better, as original post shows)
  10. #10
    Quote Originally Posted by chemist View Post
    Looks like you might not have learned.
    See first post; 65s apparently performs best against AA all-in pre-flop.

    (from 2nd post, A10s is only the best Ax hand, many other non ace hands perform better, as original post shows)
    Yes I was talking about the 2nd post. But I still don't understand why A10s are better than AJs against AA
    Can someone explain that to me?
  11. #11
    ATs can make more straights that AJs.

    For example, AJ can latch onto 789T, 89TQ, TQK... that's three potential straights.
    On the other hand, AT can make 6789, 789J, 89JQ, JQK... that's four.

    That's why ATs outperforms AJs vs AA aipf.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  12. #12
    I'll rather just pick pocket ducks or crabs. They never fail
  13. #13
    Quote Originally Posted by Farseer View Post
    I'll rather just pick pocket ducks or crabs. They never fail
    It's using terms like ducks or crabs that will get you banned form a poker site that discusses strategy. Feel free to post on youtube if you want to talk about these.


    The fact that such a stupid useless post as AA vs whatever gets more replies than most hand history threads tells me this site has gone to the freeroll birds
  14. #14
    Quote Originally Posted by jyms View Post
    It's using terms like ducks or crabs that will get you banned form a poker site that discusses strategy. Feel free to post on youtube if you want to talk about these.
    I don't even know what these terms mean. I take it from your post that this is a good thing.
  15. #15
    The fact that such a stupid useless post as AA vs whatever gets more replies than most hand history threads tells me this site has gone to the freeroll birds
    I can see where you're coming from, but that said I think there's value in thinking about why certain hands perform better than others in certain spots, even if they're useless spots in reality, as it helps to understand equity that little bit better, at least to those of us who understand mathematics. I dunno if knowing why ATs is better than AJs vs AA is ever going to provide me with practical help in my poker game, probably not, but it's interesting at the very least. It's better than "what's the best hand you've ever folded", which I take about as seriously as a discussion about cats and why they're shitter than dogs.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  16. #16
    Quote Originally Posted by BigSlickBaby View Post
    I don't even know what these terms mean. I take it from your post that this is a good thing.
    They're twat terms for pocket pairs. Ducks is 2's, crabs I actually don't know, nor do I care. People who use these terms tend to be new to poker.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  17. #17
    lol bigslick is twat term for AK isn't it?
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  18. #18
    Quote Originally Posted by OngBonga View Post
    lol bigslick is twat term for AK isn't it?
    I suppose it is now, isn't it? lol

    I am new to poker though. I'm only playing since June. I've been doing really well though and BigSlick was kind of a joke. I had a few people over the house and I was playing in a $3.50 R/A Tournament and I kept stacking people with AKo and AKs. I just kept getting dealt the hand in shove spots. I wound up placing 3rd in the tournament and winning like $20 and for me, this early, that was a big win so I just went with BigSlick. "Baby" got added on at the end because after I stacked like the third guy with it, he was crying about a bad beat (it wasn't...he had garbage) and I just responded with "Big Slick Baby...".
  19. #19
    No need to be so damn hostile right from the beginning. I wouldn't say my post so much ruined this topic, although I'm mainly just MTT player.

    While most of the time knowing how bad chances you have vs AA with every hand is almost useless, it is sometimes important information in special situations like satellite bubbles when opponent shouldn't call except with aces or so. Though so, this question is rather useless in small stakes cash games.
  20. #20
    Quote Originally Posted by BigSlickBaby View Post
    I suppose it is now, isn't it? lol

    I am new to poker though. I'm only playing since June. I've been doing really well though and BigSlick was kind of a joke. I had a few people over the house and I was playing in a $3.50 R/A Tournament and I kept stacking people with AKo and AKs. I just kept getting dealt the hand in shove spots. I wound up placing 3rd in the tournament and winning like $20 and for me, this early, that was a big win so I just went with BigSlick. "Baby" got added on at the end because after I stacked like the third guy with it, he was crying about a bad beat (it wasn't...he had garbage) and I just responded with "Big Slick Baby...".
    Every poker player was new to the game at some point. tbh I can remember playing at the pub, calling aces bullets, 2's ducks, and having a "special hand" that I play because I like that hand and it's my hand. But after one or two million hands, the novelty has well and truly worn off. My "special hand" now is AA, because it wins me the most money, and they're just called aces.

    As for bad beats, well I've learned that they basically don't exist. I prefer the term "statistical inevitability". When my KK runs into AA, I'm sighing at the rake I'm losing, not my stack. When some muppet chases 99 on Axx and binks river 2 outer, I make a note, and while smoking my calmdown bong I accept shit like that will happen sometimes in poker. It's not a bad beat, it's a bad player and I should be very happy they exist.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  21. #21
    Quote Originally Posted by Farseer View Post
    No need to be so damn hostile right from the beginning.
    Try to not post fluff just to boost your post count in an effort to get passwords, and people like jyms will probably not be so hostile towards you.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  22. #22
    Quote Originally Posted by OngBonga View Post
    Every poker player was new to the game at some point. tbh I can remember playing at the pub, calling aces bullets, 2's ducks, and having a "special hand" that I play because I like that hand and it's my hand. But after one or two million hands, the novelty has well and truly worn off. My "special hand" now is AA, because it wins me the most money, and they're just called aces.

    As for bad beats, well I've learned that they basically don't exist. I prefer the term "statistical inevitability". When my KK runs into AA, I'm sighing at the rake I'm losing, not my stack. When some muppet chases 99 on Axx and binks river 2 outer, I make a note, and while smoking my calmdown bong I accept shit like that will happen sometimes in poker. It's not a bad beat, it's a bad player and I should be very happy they exist.
    I do already know what you mean about statistical inevitability and the fact that variance goes both ways. Positive and negative. I've already taken some horrible beats but at this point I have a very zen attitude about it, such as what you detail. I smoke a bowl, go outside for a few, and get ready for the next game. I play enough that I know over the long haul I'm going to win most of these situations. I had one today in an MTT that I would have placed well in the money in otherwise. KK (me) vs. K4o (donk). He catches the runner, runner, runner, diamond flush to win the hand and take my stack. That one bothered me only because the guy is one of the biggest donks on the network but I sat back and realized that I've already taken a lot of chips off of him in the past couple of weeks and I'll assuredly take many more in the future. I can deal with the bad beat now and then, you know? At least it will keep the ATM at the tables.
  23. #23
    I can deal with the bad beat now and then, you know? At least it will keep the ATM at the tables.
    But it's not a bad beat. Changing this mentality is very challenging, but very rewarding. When some twat gets his stack in with K4 and wins, you should consider it a GOOD beat. You should laugh, not swear. I'm talking theory here, and it's something I don't always do. Much depends on my mood. But when I laugh at a donkey who did something stupid and won my stack off me, I feel a lot better than I do when I make an angry note while smashing my mouse on the table. The fact is, we WANT people to do crazy shit with K4, and the very nature of poker means it is a statistical inevitability that K4 beats KK sometimes. Thus, it's not a bad beat. It's a good beat because you want to find yourself in these spots as often as possible. If you can apply this thought process at the tables, you'll deal with tilt a lot better.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  24. #24
    Quote Originally Posted by OngBonga View Post
    But it's not a bad beat. Changing this mentality is very challenging, but very rewarding. When some twat gets his stack in with K4 and wins, you should consider it a GOOD beat. You should laugh, not swear. I'm talking theory here, and it's something I don't always do. Much depends on my mood. But when I laugh at a donkey who did something stupid and won my stack off me, I feel a lot better than I do when I make an angry note while smashing my mouse on the table. The fact is, we WANT people to do crazy shit with K4, and the very nature of poker means it is a statistical inevitability that K4 beats KK sometimes. Thus, it's not a bad beat. It's a good beat because you want to find yourself in these spots as often as possible. If you can apply this thought process at the tables, you'll deal with tilt a lot better.
    Thank you. This is pretty much the best advice anyone's given me yet it when it comes to beats and tilt.

    I had another one this morning - Raised 3x pre with AA, get one caller, go to a 3KT rainbow flop, I shove (villain is a total donk), he calls with KJo. Turn is irrelevant and the river is a J. Long story short, I wound up knocking him and his two whale friends out by the end of the tournament. Total fish. Advice like yours definitely helps to keep a more zen attitude at the tables.

    The thing is that it also keeps me at the tables because I know that volume is the key to outlasting variance.
  25. #25

    Default These Aces...

    Quote Originally Posted by pti View Post
    A simple question every one has to know the answer to. But it may turn that no one knows it

    Follows my letter to givememyleg_flopturnriver.com, which advised me to open a thread.

    Good reading and good thinking.

    ---

    Hello,

    Please, see what is my problem. I want to know which are the pocket cards that play the best against Aces. All these more than 15 years that I play Hold'em, I thought that these are 87 suited. Yes, but when accidentally tryed on PokerStove some 65s they turned to be better. I was tottally astonished and tryed some calculators.

    Here are the results (in %) I obtained:
    1 - CardPlayer (PokerListing is the same but work very slowly)
    2 - PokerStove (PokerRanger gives the same results but arounded to the hundredth)
    3 - CardsChat
    4 - Old FlopTurnRiver (as a couple of months ago)
    5 - New FlopTurnRiver converter

    1 2 3 4 5
    JTs 21.55 21.717 21.88 21.35 21.42(0.35 tie)
    T9s 22.61 22.765 22.43 22.50 22.66(0.33)
    98s 22.47 22.623 22.11 22.40 22.27(0.30)
    87s 22.87 23.021 23.33 22.97 23.02(0.28)
    76s 22.87 23.033 23.55 22.73 22.88(0.34)
    65s 22.87 23.056 23.23 22.51 22.87(0.39)

    Also I tryed your plain text odds calculator but received some error - Backend error:
    ----dropbox

    Well, it is of no practical importance these tenths, or hundredths of the percentage, but they have its theoretical meaning. I know that you use some optimization methods (I had red the source code of PokerStove, which is no more supported, and the author used some pre-calculated tables for faster obtaining the results), but the truth has to be one! And I expect you to help me to find it.

    Also, I had found this thread "Why is 56s best hand against pocket Aces?":
    ------
    (Use a search for me not to give a link to an other forum)

    Have a good day and all the best.

    Т П

    P.S. I lost one hour to cope with this software. That is why I rarely post anywhere!
    The question is not so bad one, once we go to EV /expected value/. I will present three examples in two main categories: 1) crippled stacks and 2) multi-way hands, where more than a player can have positive EV.

    (Only after I finished this post, I realized that had not said that in this post is mostly spoken about MTTs. But all is the same, including the mathemathics

    1) In a satellite we are very (2-3 people to be burst) close to the bubble. Blinds 50/100 no ante. Me on the SB with thousands am qualified for sure and am dealt 6s5s. The BB has 60 (was severely crppled) after the post. Because it was SH 6-table we often were left in hands-up. If I am TAG, he is super-TAG. I never tryed to steal his blind and to irritate him as I prefered him on my back than some maniac. Even after he suffered a bad beat and was crippled I started to muck decent for the SB hands. This time I called, knowing that he is qualified. If I had remembered this hand it is because of the insanity he did - he pushed all his chips! Aces for sure! Even not Kings. Absolutely frustrated, what had I not did for him to survive and he - splash! On the turn he already packaged his knapsack. If Dan Harrington gave us a simple case where the Aces are to be folded pre-flop, this one is a more than obvious case where the Aces are to be slow played - check till the showdown, even if they lose, you have 50 for the next SB and the remaining 10(!) would have saved your life! But these are Aces Aces, sure, but they are not invincible...
    An other thing that chocked me and made me laugh half an hour non stop, when analyzing this hand, was that I am on the edge. My EV=0 is at 85 chips. Had he had and pushed 86, not 60 chips, my right play with my 3,300 chips is to FOLD, and no one could blame me for dumping! Can you imagine this to happen at a cash table? Expelled with kicks and banned forever not only from my casino, but all casinos in the country, even around the world (One more half an hour non stop laugh)

    2) Crippled stacks ofen occur in long MTTs when a few - 2,3,4, players are remaining with a few chips, even partial a chip (Yes, there are tournaments won by a player, who at some moment had had a fraction of a chip!) Here all mesure are in chips (SBs) in this example (100 entries, 1500 starting chips, 36th level - 15K/30K, 10 min per level, 6 hours play, four remaining - more than normal). The situation is reversed - the 65s is the short stack. Four player still alive, blinds 1/2, no ante. Player A(SB) puts 1, B(BB) - 2, C raises. You with just one chip (1/2 BB) left, have 65s. Do you call? Against Aces you have 23% chance to win, or EV -0.08 chip. The next hand, UTG, you have the chance of 25% to be dealt the winning hand, but in the pot there will be only 2 chips, or EV +0.50. A further one more hand you are forced all-in on the BB with EV +0.50, if two passes. Call now?
    Let the players be not 4, but 5. Same situation, but there is a player (the dealer) behind you. He may be forced, being cripled, or decide that such a big pot is worth to call. As we will see in 2), you have the same more than 20% chance to win the hand (AcAd/AhKh/6s5s is 63.5%/12.5%/24.1% ! We are not to expect such big clashes - AA vs. AKs too ofen when 4-handed but this is mostly theory.) but your EV +0.16 - clear call.

    No one has the time to make these calculations on the table. He is to make them beforehand at home, sitting in a confortable chair, with a paper sheet and a pencil in hand (it is faster than calculators), listening a quiet, relaxing music.

    Here is my homemade. It depends of 1) the prize structure (sometimes the difference between the 1st and 4th sums is in times, other times it is flat like this - $10, $8, $7, $6) and the amount of the prize itself ($10, $100, $1000 ?) in relation to my bankroll (I always follow the rule to have 20 buy-ins.) I assume the scheme $10, $7, $5, $4. In general (4-handed), if the 1st prize is less than my bankroll (20 buy-ins), I made it till now well (4th prize has to be no lesser than 5 buy-ins, usually that put you a level higher), it is worth a push - call with 65s, but fold with, what may look better for some people - QJs (19.7% win, EV -0.21) and KQo (13.7%, EV -0.45). If the 1st prize is bigger than my bankroll, I did it very well till now, am in big money and every place up means new big money - fold with at best EV -0.076. If the prize structure is very flat, I call in both cases - that may be my day, I do not play so many tournaments

    For the 5 handed table in both prize/bankroll cases, if we assume that the dealer will call with 50% probability, which means 3,5 pot, our EV +0.04; if he wll call in 25% of the cases, pot 3,25, EV -0.02 -> no one can know 50% or 25%, so call. If I am the dealer and he had already called, it was said above - EV +0.15 on 4 pot and call. In the latter case, pot 4, I would call even with QJs - EV -0.015. The suited connectors from 54s to JTs are with positive +EV, if in a sperate suit. (Difficult against 4, 6 or 8 cards, but I am not going to make the exact calculations. Someting like 18,5% /EV -0,075/ if one card in the 65s suit and 18,0% /EV -0,10/ if two cards, instead of the needed >20% /EV 0.0/. You decide the risk!) Examples:
    1) AcAd : KhQh : 5s4s . pass . pass = 60,6% : 17,8% : 21,5%
    2) AcAd : KhQh : 5s4s : 9d9h . pass = 49,1% : 14,7% : 20,6% : 15,6% ........... EV +0.03
    3) AcAd : KhQh : 5s4s : 9d9h : AhJd = 41,7% : 13,2% : 23,0% : 17,2% : 04.9% ... EV +0.15
    but
    4) AcAd : KhQh : 5s4s : 9d9h : 7h2s = 43,6% : 14,5% : 18,7% : 15,7% : 07.6% ... EV -0.065
    5) AcAd : KhQh : 5s4s : 9d9s : 7h2s = 43,6% : 15,8% : 17,0% : 16,1% : 07.6% ... EV -0.15

    The math behind my reasoning is very simple. At this stage of the game, final 10 and lesser players remaining, it is not the EV in chips that counts, it is the EV to Win the Tournament (EVWT) that is the essential. Let in the example above player A has (before the posts) 2 chips (SBs), B - 3, C - 4, Me - 1. My EVWT is 10%.
    EVWT = my chips / all chips = 1 / 10 = 10%
    If I win the main pot (the other pots do not interest me) I will have 4 chips for EVWT = 40% or a gain of 30%. The same way as for the EV in chips, the question is - if I put my 10% in the pot of 30% what are to be my chances/probabililies (0 < X < 1) to win the pot for that not to be a losing move? We are to resolve the equation:
    (30% * X) - (10% * (1 - X)) = 0 X = ?
    The anwer is X=0.25, or in percentages - 25%. In the above hand (AcAd/AhKh/6s5s) I am very close - 24.1%. So I call in some situations. But not with QsJs - 19.7%.

    Let me sumarize. Supposing that I have full 25% to win the hand in the above example. Every 4 hand I win once 40% EVWT and thrice lose my 10%, for the sum of 30% lost EVWT and in the long lun I am left with my inital 10% EVWT. Neutral play - neither winning, nor losing. The EVWT is based on chips, but it is far more meaningful to say: "This hand I won 10% EVWT and I am 53% EVWT now.", than: "I won 100 (1,000 or 1,000,000?) chips." or: "I went 3 places up." In a MTT with 100 entrants and starting chips 1500, there are 150,000 chips. If some idiot (they still exist and reproduce themselves doubles up (two idiots are needed the very first hand, he gained 1% EVWT and now has 3,000 chips and 2% EVWT no matter how many other idiots on the other tables went home

    We may return some day to this example on an other place. Most of this hand, my decision and the tournament depends of the stack of player B. Is it in practice 2.9 or 3.1 chips(SBs)? Remember the first example.

    2) In a multi-way pot, many players involved in, more than one participants may have +EV, so good reason to play. Let us look at the following percentages to win and EV of the hands. All the participants have 100 chips and are all-in. Not so unprobable, if we remember that along, and even before, the No Limit Hold'em there is the Fixed Limit one. The settings are the most favorable for the 65s (and the Aces, too!) - all the pairs are in the black suits, the 65s are red. The 65s is last to bid. Given are only the numbers for the AA and the 65 (the first column), the other are irrelevant and far lesser than that of the 65.
    AA : 65 ....................... 23.1% : 76.9% ...... EV -53.8 ... +53.8
    AA : KK : 65 .................. 23.0% : 61.2% ...... EV -31.0 ... +83.6
    AA : KK : QQ : 65 ............. 23.0% : 47.9% ...... EV -08.0 ... +91.6
    AA : KK : QQ : JJ : 65 ........ 22.6% : 37.7% ...... EV +09.4 ... +88.5
    AA : KK : QQ : JJ : TT : 65 ... 22.3% : 29.5% ...... EV +33.8 ... +77.0
    It is not needed to comment how the one staying with the same percentages, go up in value, while the other one falling like a stone down in percentages, mark time on (almost) the same value.

    In these examples, that may look forced, I tryed to show why is it important to know how different pocket cards play against Aces. One thing is the 65s 23.056% win, an other one is the 72o 11.024%. All the other pockets are somewhere in between these two extremities. That give us a notion of how strong is our possession as compared to a sole standard - AA.

    As a matter or fact 65s plays not so bad against the range of the 5.3% best hands (12 in number) - 88+,AJs+,KQs,AKo - 29.0% : 71.0%. For comparision - QJs has 34.8% win, KQo has 33.1%, 72o has 19.5%.

    No, in no way am I anxious about the fate of the mediocre hand that 65s is:
    65s : rnd ..... 43.13% : 56.87% rnd = random hand
    65s : rnd : rnd 30.21% : 34.90% : 34.89% ............ etc.
    I am interested of how the situations look like from the position of the strongest hand - the Aces. Now we know their most tenacious opponent - 65s. What next?

    See you an other time at an other place.
    Buy.
    Last edited by pti2; 02-18-2015 at 06:37 PM.
  26. #26
    Quote Originally Posted by jyms View Post
    The fact that such a stupid useless post as AA vs whatever gets more replies than most hand history threads
    +1
    "The harder you work, the luckier you get." ~ courtesy of my fortune cookie from china king

    "One of the best pieces of advice I've ever read in this forum was three words long...

    bet fucking fold." Ong

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