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Graph question

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  1. #1

    Default Graph question

    Is the yellow line (all-in ev) supposed to be close to the blue line (showdown) at least in an ideal world? For example in this graph, would the difference between the yellow and blue lines suggest runbad or some totally different issue? Like paying off people entirely way too much? Or can you not tell from the graph?

    Last edited by abelardx; 09-26-2013 at 10:52 AM. Reason: elaborated on the question
  2. #2
    Your graph is upside down

    I'm not even sure the AIEV stat line works. I mean does it account for anything other than headsup pots where all holecards are revealed? It's just a results-oriented stat, no?
  3. #3
    I don't think AI-EV line should be close to showdown. There are tons of spots where you win at showdown on the river that don't contribute to AI-EV (ie: every pot where we aren't all-in prior to the river and proceed to get to showdown).
    Quote Originally Posted by Jay-Z
    I'm a couple hands down and I'm tryin' to get back
    I gave the other grip, I lost a flip for five stacks
  4. #4
    MadMojoMonkey's Avatar
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    I don't use any tracking software, so grain of salt with this post.

    Judging by the fact that your blue line and red line are in the wrong places, I think it's safe to assume that you are over-valuing your mid-strength hands and V-towning yourself with them.

    You have a nice positive winrate for non-showdown hands, but you're losing tons when you get to showdown. This means that, on average, you bet to the point where villains have folded all the hands you beat. Which probably means your betting too aggressively when you have mid-strength hands.

    Also, it means you're probably trying to bluff the stations, or that regs are stationing you down because you bluff too often.

    Again... just some quick thoughts, not a hard criticism.
  5. #5
    At the stakes you are playing your red line should be pretty flat, probably capable of being positive as you have so many chances to steal and people don't steal or value bet enough and can take down a lot of pots with cbets.

    And your blue line should be going up up up up up because so many people are calling stations and we should be getting loads of value from them with our strong hands vs their not so strong hands.
  6. #6
    I'm not sure if this is what you are asking but...

    Red line plus blue line = green line i.e. what actually happened

    Yellow line is what your green line would look like with "average" luck but doesn't reflect what actually happened i.e. the difference between your yellow line and green line suggest a small amount of "bad" luck. In theory, the two should converge over a bigger sample but will never meet.

    The others are right though in terms of what your graph is telling you. FWIW, I've never seen a graph like that for a micro player as showdown is where you typically print money.
  7. #7
    OK thanks. I have a lot to think about.
  8. #8
    Yeah a blue line like that is definitely not a healthy scan of your game at 5NL/10NL. It looks like you're bluffing, stationing far too much. The fold button is your friend and shouldn't be avoided. I'm almost certain from looking at that graph that you don't fold anywhere near enough.
  9. #9
    I have always had a much bigger red line (non showdown) than blue line (showdown).

    I wouldn't worry too much about which is bigger as long as your green line (total winnings) is in a good place.

    That being said, an increase red line and decreasing blue line likely indicates:
    1. bluffing too much, bluffing too many stations
    2. calling too much, not folding many rivers
    Quote Originally Posted by Jay-Z
    I'm a couple hands down and I'm tryin' to get back
    I gave the other grip, I lost a flip for five stacks
  10. #10
  11. #11
    Please tell me how you got your red line like that - if my red line looked like that, I would be smoking cuban cigars and bathing in fine cognac (but perhaps not at the same time).
  12. #12
    Quote Originally Posted by BorisTheSpider View Post
    Please tell me how you got your red line like that - if my red line looked like that, I would be smoking cuban cigars and bathing in fine cognac (but perhaps not at the same time).
    Sadly this isn't true because your red line and blue line are tightly tied together. If you got his red line, then your blue line would tank along with it
    Quote Originally Posted by Jay-Z
    I'm a couple hands down and I'm tryin' to get back
    I gave the other grip, I lost a flip for five stacks
  13. #13
    Quote Originally Posted by griffey24 View Post
    I have always had a much bigger red line (non showdown) than blue line (showdown).

    I wouldn't worry too much about which is bigger as long as your green line (total winnings) is in a good place.
    My red line is also generally bigger than my blue line, but I think you're almost definitely doing something wrong if you're losing money at SD at 10nl. If both are positive and red is above the blue, then fair enough, can't really complain about that.
  14. #14
    Quote Originally Posted by griffey24 View Post
    I have always had a much bigger red line (non showdown) than blue line (showdown).

    I wouldn't worry too much about which is bigger as long as your green line (total winnings) is in a good place.

    That being said, an increase red line and decreasing blue line likely indicates:
    1. bluffing too much, bluffing too many stations
    2. calling too much, not folding many rivers
    My blue lines is absolutely miles ahead of my red line. I seem to be the only person who has it that way round.
    Currently grinding live cash games. Life is good.
  15. #15
    Quote Originally Posted by surviva316 View Post
    My red line is also generally bigger than my blue line, but I think you're almost definitely doing something wrong if you're losing money at SD at 10nl. If both are positive and red is above the blue, then fair enough, can't really complain about that.
    Yeah but you spewtard Viva
  16. #16
    Quote Originally Posted by Cobra_1878 View Post
    My blue lines is absolutely miles ahead of my red line. I seem to be the only person who has it that way round.
    Same bra my whole poker career my blue has won around double what my red has lost. I know not how to even have a break even red line.
  17. #17
    Quote Originally Posted by Carroters View Post
    Same bra my whole poker career my blue has won around double what my red has lost. I know not how to even have a break even red line.
    haha what's your WTSD / W$SD?
    Quote Originally Posted by Jay-Z
    I'm a couple hands down and I'm tryin' to get back
    I gave the other grip, I lost a flip for five stacks
  18. #18
    Quote Originally Posted by Carroters View Post
    Same bra my whole poker career my blue has won around double what my red has lost. I know not how to even have a break even red line.
    That's good. I thought I was doing something massively wrong for a while there.
    Currently grinding live cash games. Life is good.
  19. #19
    +1 for the downward red line and more than offsetting showdown line.

    Fwiw, my WTSD/W$SD is about 25%/55%, which probably tells you I'm not aggressive enough before showdown in a few spots. Leak Buster tells me I'm far too passive too, although the WTSD/W$SD is ideal according to LB for the stakes I play.
  20. #20
    Yah I think WTSD/Won at SD is a decent indicator of red vs blue line. It also says that you are only calling on rivers when you are very likely ahead.

    I'm probably like 28-29% WTSD / 49-51% won at SD.
    Quote Originally Posted by Jay-Z
    I'm a couple hands down and I'm tryin' to get back
    I gave the other grip, I lost a flip for five stacks
  21. #21
    Quote Originally Posted by griffey24 View Post
    ...It also says that you are only calling on rivers when you are very likely ahead.
    This sounds right intuitively ofc, but not so sure if it applies to me - my river call efficiency is only about 1.2, which is pretty damn low.
  22. #22
    I've changed a bunch of stuff in my game this month, so only included last 30k hands. Been running fairly good so these %s could be skewed.

    WTSD: 22.78%
    Won @SD: 57.82%

    Last edited by Carroters; 09-27-2013 at 09:43 AM.
  23. #23
    Quote Originally Posted by Carroters View Post
    I've changed a bunch of stuff in my game this month, so only included last 30k hands. Been running fairly good so these %s could be skewed.

    WTSD: 22.78%
    Won @SD: 57.82%

    OMG, 23% WTSD and almost 58% won at SD?

    I think you're DEFINITELY missing out on profitable calls. What is your river call efficiency?
    Quote Originally Posted by Jay-Z
    I'm a couple hands down and I'm tryin' to get back
    I gave the other grip, I lost a flip for five stacks
  24. #24
    I thought I had a terrible redline, and an OK blueline until I saw Carroters graph. Now, I realise that it's actually the other way around.

    Proportionately my redline is similar to his in terms of bb/100, but my blueline is nowhere near as profitable.

    I take it this probably means that I bluff off a similar amount of money, but somehow end up winning much less at showdown.

    Thoughts:

    1. Could be getting to showdown with too many relative weak hands, but my WTSD/W$SD doesn't sound unreasonable given what Griffeys said here (mines are 26% WTSD / 49% W$SD).

    2. Could be failing to get value for my big hands, but I really doubt it - if anything I feel like I often value town myself when I bet-bet-bet against a fishy station and they call me down with a set etc.

    I dunno, does anyone have any idea how I can use this information to help locate my leaks?
    Last edited by BorisTheSpider; 09-27-2013 at 10:29 AM.
  25. #25
    Don't compare your stats to griffeys while looking at carotters graph. If you see griffeys graph you will shit your pants.
  26. #26
    Quote Originally Posted by jyms View Post
    Don't compare your stats to griffeys while looking at carotters graph. If you see griffeys graph you will shit your pants.
    Haha I've actually calmed down the last year or so. But yah my old graphs were horrible blue line and all red line.
    Quote Originally Posted by Jay-Z
    I'm a couple hands down and I'm tryin' to get back
    I gave the other grip, I lost a flip for five stacks
  27. #27
    Quote Originally Posted by griffey24 View Post
    my old graphs were horrible blue line and all red line.
    LOL, I didn't expect that - you seem a somewhat calming influence on my spewtard tendencies (thanks).
  28. #28
    I think we all have different styles and different red/blue line configurations are natural and good for different people. That said I do feel like i don't get to SD enough sometimes. I'm going to make some of my homework for next month to find some hands where I fold turns/rivers questionably. When I do call down light I win a very large amount of the time which probably means I'm not calling down light often enough.

    River call eft: 1.91

    I have no idea what this stat means or how to use it Griffey, could you help me out?

    Also wtf I've gone from like 27/22/11 to 24/20/7 c-bet has dropped from like 74% to 64%. Since I've made these changes the red line has gotten better! LOL
    Last edited by Carroters; 09-27-2013 at 11:10 AM.
  29. #29
    Yah I don't think we should be aiming to have some specific red / blue line at all. But I think if your WTSD is so low and won at SD is so high, it probably just means you are leaning your calls towards spots where you are very likely ahead and missing out on more marginal spots.

    I mean often times we are faced with a bet on the river and only need to be good like 30-35% of the time. I would imagine that you are folding a lot of these hands that are good 30-40% of the time, which are technically correct/profitable calls but also marginal calls.

    River call efficiency is a tough stat to interpret. It's essentially how much you win for every $1 you call on the river. So it should for sure be > 1. There are very mixed camps on what the optimal is. Some people say that it should be very close to $1, which means you are essentially taking every single positive expectation spot. I think most winning players are probably in the 1.7ish to 2.1ish range.

    Something in the 1.9-2.1 ballpark though I think can suggest that you are waiting for the best of it, OR that you are an amazing hand reader and great at calling in spots (even marginal) where you are ahead and folding those same spots when you're behind.
    Quote Originally Posted by Jay-Z
    I'm a couple hands down and I'm tryin' to get back
    I gave the other grip, I lost a flip for five stacks
  30. #30
    Mine is 1.28, I take it this probably means I'm calling too many rivers with just a bluffcatcher?
  31. #31
    It seems like a stat that is dependant on loads of other stats, so going "mines 1.28" isn't really going to mean a huge deal imo. Although this is based off just reading Griffeys description of it.
  32. #32
    Quote Originally Posted by BorisTheSpider View Post
    Mine is 1.28, I take it this probably means I'm calling too many rivers with just a bluffcatcher?
    Yah it could mean that. Or it could mean that you are making some mistakes in big pots, which I would imagine would skew your river call efficiency more than mistakes in smaller pots (assuming they were happening at the same frequency).

    I've tried googling good explanations but havent found any that are really good or conclusive. If anyone finds any let us know.

    You can also try filtering for spots where you faced a bet on the river, and what your won at SD % is. Because WTSD / Won at SD also includes a lot of spots where river goes check check, or hands are checked down etc.
    Quote Originally Posted by Jay-Z
    I'm a couple hands down and I'm tryin' to get back
    I gave the other grip, I lost a flip for five stacks
  33. #33
    Interesting - I guess this kind of thing takes some ferreting out of the stats.

    My stats for "Saw River"+"Did not see showdown" look terrible, this year there have been 758 hands like that (out of about 30,000 played since I started again) and I've lost 218bb/100 here.

    For "Saw river"+"Bet river"+"saw showdown" I'm very profitable, so I'm obviously not bluffing off money on the river.

    Doing what you suggested, and filtering for hands where I faced a bet on the river, I lost a lot of money here, and WTSD 30% to W$SD 45.7%

    Filtering that still further, when I saw showdown after facing a bet on the river, I lost 509bb/100 (210 hands) for a total loss of $250, but I lost $1100 (-893bb/100) in the 485 hands where I didn't see showdown after facing a river bet.

    Overall, I won a little for all hands where I saw the river.

    I'll have to pick over this and see what I can deduce.
  34. #34
    Quote Originally Posted by BorisTheSpider View Post
    Doing what you suggested, and filtering for hands where I faced a bet on the river, I lost a lot of money here, and WTSD 30% to W$SD 45.7%
    This to me is another indication that you may be losing / making mistakes in big pots.

    Technically if you always face a pot size bet on the river, as long as you win 33% of the time then you should break-even.

    Here you are winning 45% of the time, but still losing a lot. So could be something to look into. You can also filter by final pot size to see if there is any difference.
    Quote Originally Posted by Jay-Z
    I'm a couple hands down and I'm tryin' to get back
    I gave the other grip, I lost a flip for five stacks
  35. #35
    Thanks - didn't realise I could filter by pot size. The results are very interesting.

    In the problem rivers (didn't see showdown when facing a river bet, where I folded the river):

    - Lost $1092 overall
    - Lost $72 when the river pot was bigger than 80bb
    - Lost $779 when the river pot was smaller than 50bb

    So I'm getting to a lot of rivers in small pots where I then end up folding. Whether that is because I'm not calling wide enough, or because I'm 2-barrelling too much and not following through on the river, I haven't looked at yet, I will do some more filtering shortly.



    Folding a lot of smallish river pots.
  36. #36
    I don't get why my blue line is so bad. Isn't 1.64 a decent river call efficiency?



    It's the won at showdown, isn't it? The 46.80, isn't that horrible?

    WSD(ns) is won at showdown for pots where you put in >= 5 blinds. The ns is non-small.
  37. #37
    I think it could be c-betting and giving up too much esp vs the fish. My flop c-bet is 71 with flop c-bet success of 46. idk that doesn't sound too bad.
  38. #38
    I think I've found it. Calling all-in on the flop or turn have been big money makers but raising all-in on the flop or turn have been big losers. So I guess too many bad semi-bluff shoves and/or over-valueing big pairs, something like that.

    called aiotf -> +525 bb/100
    called aiott -> +780 bb/100
    raised aiotf -> -1274 bb/100
    raised aiott -> -306 bb/100

    So I think I should be a little more circumspect on the flop perhaps.
    Last edited by abelardx; 09-27-2013 at 03:25 PM. Reason: added numbers
  39. #39
    Now I'm not sure if the PokerTracker stat is me calling all-in for example or anyone calling all-in. This is really frustrating.

    edit: Sorry for the zillion posts. I'm gonna figure this out and make one post. There's no way to delete posts, is there?
    Last edited by abelardx; 09-27-2013 at 03:36 PM.
  40. #40
    River call efficiency isn't the only factor to 'showdown' vs 'non-showdown'.

    Just think of every spot where a pot is building up and you don't get to showdown.

    Do you call lots of flops and turns and fold tons of rivers?
    Do you bluff raise flops, bet turns but shutdown on rivers?
    Do you 4b bluff a ton and fold to a lot of 5bets?
    Do you 3b bluff a ton and fold to a lot of 4bets?
    Do you cbet and c/f a ton of turns, or double barrel and c/f a lot of rivers?

    Yada yada, all of these types of things will kill your "non-showdown" line, but will also probably keep your "showdown"line nice and positive.

    Again, over the years I've seen so many of these "my red line sucks" threads, but just worry about your green line!
    Quote Originally Posted by Jay-Z
    I'm a couple hands down and I'm tryin' to get back
    I gave the other grip, I lost a flip for five stacks
  41. #41
    Quote Originally Posted by griffey24 View Post
    River call efficiency isn't the only factor to 'showdown' vs 'non-showdown'.

    Just think of every spot where a pot is building up and you don't get to showdown.

    Do you call lots of flops and turns and fold tons of rivers?
    Do you bluff raise flops, bet turns but shutdown on rivers?
    Do you 4b bluff a ton and fold to a lot of 5bets?
    Do you 3b bluff a ton and fold to a lot of 4bets?
    Do you cbet and c/f a ton of turns, or double barrel and c/f a lot of rivers?

    Yada yada, all of these types of things will kill your "non-showdown" line, but will also probably keep your "showdown"line nice and positive.

    Again, over the years I've seen so many of these "my red line sucks" threads, but just worry about your green line!
    Ya but his problem is his readline doesn't suck, his blue line does. So his problem is more Am I calling too much, am I being valuetowned. Am I overbetting my showdown hands and getting too many folds. Am I bluffing too much on the river?
  42. #42
    Aha, I found mine. If I filter further for B/C or raise flop, then that's where most of the leak happens when I fold the river, so I need to be deciding more often on the flop when either I raise it, or call a raise, whether I'm commiting to the hand at that point.
  43. #43
    Boris I'm not really sure what you're showing there. Maybe I'm misunderstanding, but it seems like you are saying:

    "If I filter for times I put money in the pot and then folded, the bb/100 is negative. Therefore, this must be a leak".

    Since you never make any money from pots you fold, I don't see how this could ever be anything other than hugely negative. That doesn't make it a leak.
    gabe: Ive dropped almost 100k in the past 35 days.

    bigspenda73: But how much did you win?
  44. #44
    I think he's saying when flops are raised and he folds rivers he is losing too much. I think he's calling or raising flops too often with the worst of it.

    I know for me, and there are filters built in for this, but getting raised on the flop is a huge factor in a losing winrate if you aren't folding to these enough. Depending on hand strength obviously
  45. #45
    Maybe, but you'd need to include marginal hands that you call flop and then win at river as well to see if it's overall positive/negative to call in those spots. I'm not sure he has done that.
    gabe: Ive dropped almost 100k in the past 35 days.

    bigspenda73: But how much did you win?
  46. #46
    Ya, I don't filter stuff like that as seeing or not seeing showdown because I think things are too obvious. If you are calling any raise, or raising any street and not seeing showdown your red line will plummet.

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