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Folding AK on AKx flop to check-raise

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  1. #1
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    Default Folding AK on AKx flop to check-raise

    I haven't played in a long time so my apologies in advance if this is trivial. This is a fictional hand I was thinking about yesterday.
    Imagine villain is an ABC TAG.

    ----------------
    10NL 6-max

    UTG ($10.00)
    MP ($10.00)
    CO ($10.00)
    Hero (Button) ($10.00)
    SB ($10.00)
    BB ($10.00)

    Preflop: Hero is MP with Ah Kc
    3 folds, Hero bets $0.40, SB calls $0.40, BB folds

    Flop: ($0.90) As Kh 6c (2 players)
    SB checks, Hero bets $0.60, SB raises to $1.20, Hero ???
    ----------------

    I guess Hero's c-bet is debateble, but as played I think Hero should fold here. Intuitively that seems wrong, but I can't really see why.

    The only cards I can see in Villain's range here is a set of sixes assuming he doesn't call my preflop raise from EP with AJ-Q. Even with something like AJ I don't think he would check-raise this flop often. Assuming he's not leveling me, which I wouldn't expect him to be at the micros, this would be an incredibly stupid board for him to do a check-raise bluff on as it hits my range very hard. If the 6c was a 6s/h or something like a 10 it would be a different story as his range could consist mostly of semi-bluffs, but as is I can't convince myself that calling is the right move here. Why am I wrong?
  2. #2
    I cant speak for 10NL, as I've only played 25NL+, but it's completely reasonable to c-r here if you're SB with any hand or bluff as most button raise ranges are pretty wide. My read here is that the x-r is just exploiting the likely continuation bet that button will throw out on that board and a x-r is a decent play against his range. If he's really nitty, then sure he may have caught a good piece of the board, but without knowing his cold call by position stats, I wouldn't be narrowing his range down so quickly to a set of 6s. He may have any A, two pair hands like A6, K6s, or even a K with backdoor draw like KQs.

    For example, last night I was playing a 6max session and my button raise % 1st in was sitting at 76%. Most players at my current limit hover around the 35-50% 1st in raise, unless they're complete nits. With that range, if I was sitting in villains shoes I would definitely increase my bluff range against a cbet (although I'm also aware of that so my cbet % personally is reflective of that)

    I personally see c-r on the turn as being much more indicative of strength. I'd be much more worried about that set of 6s if he x-c flop and x-r turn.

    I don't think I'm ever folding that flop to such a pissy min-raise without really solid reads
  3. #3
    bjsaust's Avatar
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    Fictional TAGs at 10NL don't check/minraise this flop.
    Just dipping my toes back in.
  4. #4
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    Quote Originally Posted by renegaderob1 View Post
    it's completely reasonable to c-r here if you're SB with any hand or bluff as most button raise ranges are pretty wide.
    You're absolutely right about that. This doesn't hit my open Button raising range as hard as I initially assumed it did and with that in mind a c-r bluff from his end is actually pretty understandable. His SB calling range might even be ahead of me on this flop. I'll run some ranges on stove tonight (it's morning here atm). If this is the case though, would he often take this line of action with a AJ-Q? I believe he would nearly always donk or x/c those.

    Quote Originally Posted by renegaderob1 View Post
    I cant speak for 10NL, as I've only played 25NL+
    To be fair, I only picked 10NL for readability. As stated, this is a fictional hand. I'm probably going to start off on 5NL or even 2NL depending on how much tougher the games have become in the last few years.

    Quote Originally Posted by renegaderob1 View Post
    such a pissy min-raise
    This right here shows how much out of the game I have been: when coming up with this hand I thought this was a pretty standard r size. I guess I really have some reading up to do. What would have been a better min-raise size for Villain here?
    Last edited by Runge-Kutta; 03-18-2015 at 07:12 AM.
  5. #5
    Hero's cbet is not debateable, it's a good cbet and it's not close imo.

    Villain is only min-raising, and this is one of the best hands in our range here (assuming we check back AA sometimes, it becomes even closer to our best hand). Call the raise and let's see the next street.

    That being said I can already tell you I'm calling whatever the card is, so call turn and let's see a river.
    Quote Originally Posted by Jay-Z
    I'm a couple hands down and I'm tryin' to get back
    I gave the other grip, I lost a flip for five stacks
  6. #6
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    Quote Originally Posted by griffey24 View Post
    Hero's cbet is not debateable, it's a good cbet and it's not close imo.
    I guess you're right. Honestly, the problem I'm having with this hand is that I am fairly clueless about Villain preflop range. That is obviously unforgivable so I should probably study that for a while before asking questions about specific hands. I mean, he would never call preflop with something like A5s or 78s right? At this moment I would assume his preflop calling range is something like {AJ-Q,KJ+,QJ,JT,55+} and that's if I assume he setmines loosely.

    That being said, I guess Villain does x/c enough worse hands here so regardless of whether the range I give him is still too tight, a c-bet should always be fine. Not sure why I doubted that in the first place. I guess it's another consequence of my inability to put Villain on a range preflop.

    Quote Originally Posted by griffey24 View Post
    Call the raise and let's see the next street.
    Now that it has been established that we're always calling here. What would you say his range is after the x/r? Is it really only {66,AQ-J,a few low pairs} or would he ever do this with {QJ,78,TT-88,Ax} assuming that's even in the PF range?
    Last edited by Runge-Kutta; 03-18-2015 at 11:13 AM.
  7. #7
    These are my thoughts on this hand. I know it's fictional, but nonetheless:

    Hero - BTN steal sizing at 0.40 (4x) is too large. Somewhere between 2x and 3x is probably fine.
    SB's range for flatting a 4x BTN steal I'd imagine is reasonably tight - Axs, mid-pairs 77-TT (might even fold or 3b low pairs like 66 and less). Will also have JT/QJ/KQ/KJ/AJ/AQ.

    Don't under-estimate the impact of you stealing 4x in this example vs 2x or 3x. It will impact ppl's ranges.

    SB's range for min c/r - Well my above assumption was that he potentially wouldn't even flat 66 to a 4x steal in the SB. So now he's c/r with AT+ potentially. A6. Gutshots potentially (but a min raise seems weird for a gutshot). Some ppl do weird things like c/r Kx here.

    Don't under-estimate the impact of him min raise c/r in your example. I'd guess a min-raise range to be quite different than if he had 3x raised.
    Quote Originally Posted by Jay-Z
    I'm a couple hands down and I'm tryin' to get back
    I gave the other grip, I lost a flip for five stacks
  8. #8
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    If Hero bets 3BB PF and Villain x/r 3x, would a fold still be too nitty then?
  9. #9
    Quote Originally Posted by Runge-Kutta View Post
    If Hero bets 3BB PF and Villain x/r 3x, would a fold still be too nitty then?
    I have no plans folding at any point But if I didn't have a great feeling, I would probably do my best to make sure I made the most out of his air/bluffs/worse hands (probably call, and call down).
    Quote Originally Posted by Jay-Z
    I'm a couple hands down and I'm tryin' to get back
    I gave the other grip, I lost a flip for five stacks
  10. #10
    bjsaust's Avatar
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    ^ That. I can't see folding this fictional hand, but I let him do the betting after the c/r.
    Just dipping my toes back in.
  11. #11
    Quote Originally Posted by Runge-Kutta View Post
    You're absolutely right about that. This doesn't hit my open Button raising range as hard as I initially assumed it did and with that in mind a c-r bluff from his end is actually pretty understandable. His SB calling range might even be ahead of me on this flop. I'll run some ranges on stove tonight (it's morning here atm). If this is the case though, would he often take this line of action with a AJ-Q? I believe he would nearly always donk or x/c those.


    To be fair, I only picked 10NL for readability. As stated, this is a fictional hand. I'm probably going to start off on 5NL or even 2NL depending on how much tougher the games have become in the last few years.


    This right here shows how much out of the game I have been: when coming up with this hand I thought this was a pretty standard r size. I guess I really have some reading up to do. What would have been a better min-raise size for Villain here?
    I personally have a very limited cold call range when playing as SB vs BTN. In fact, I'm almost always (95%+) 3b here if I get into a hand because the BB is such a pest if I cold call when he chooses to squeeze/attack dead money. So it's hard for me to accurately give you a "standard" SB cold call range without more information.
    (Generally speaking, the things to look for in your HUD when making range decisions include; VPIP, PRF, VPIP/PRF ratio, raise 1st in by position, cold call by position, 3b by position. There are other stats, but they're the main ones I tend to use.)

    For x-r sizing, I think you'd typically see at least 3x.

    @Griffey; what's your experience with preflop bet sizing? I did an experiment before I moved up to 50nl from 25nl where I basically raised 4x pre with all my hands for 5k hands, and I honestly didn't think I saw much of a difference in what people were cold calling me with apart from when I was 4x raising from EP.
  12. #12
    Quote Originally Posted by renegaderob1 View Post
    I personally have a very limited cold call range when playing as SB vs BTN. In fact, I'm almost always (95%+) 3b here if I get into a hand because the BB is such a pest if I cold call when he chooses to squeeze/attack dead money. So it's hard for me to accurately give you a "standard" SB cold call range without more information.
    (Generally speaking, the things to look for in your HUD when making range decisions include; VPIP, PRF, VPIP/PRF ratio, raise 1st in by position, cold call by position, 3b by position. There are other stats, but they're the main ones I tend to use.)

    For x-r sizing, I think you'd typically see at least 3x.

    @Griffey; what's your experience with preflop bet sizing? I did an experiment before I moved up to 50nl from 25nl where I basically raised 4x pre with all my hands for 5k hands, and I honestly didn't think I saw much of a difference in what people were cold calling me with apart from when I was 4x raising from EP.

    I think the biggest thing with pre-flop sizing is to think about how often your steal attempt has to work related to the sizing you choose.

    2x steal - Risking 2 for 1.5, has to work 57% (2/(2+1.5)) of the time
    2.5x steal - Has to work 62.5% of the time
    3x steal - Has to work 67% of the time
    3.5x steal - Has to work 70% of the time
    4x steal - Has to work 73% of the time

    So just looking at the profitability of the steal in itself (not including any post-flop play etc). The range of possible steal sizes has you going from needing folds 57% of the time (from both blinds) all the way to 73% of the time. This makes a big difference.

    Generally I open larger when OOP, so I'd probably 3x from EP, 2 or 2.5x from BTN and 3x from SB in BvB.

    Other ramifications of choosing a smaller size:
    1. Blinds might be more likely to call you overall. This is bad from the point of view of immediate fold equity of your steal, but could also be good because they will be OOP with a wider/weaker range that they may not play well postflop.
    2. Blinds might be more likely to call you with a particular range of hands - instead of 3b with that range. ie: Someone may 3b a hand like 55 in the SB to a 3x or 4x btn steal, but may very well call to a 2x steal. This means that you get to see more flops with hands that would have otherwise folded to 3b.
    3. Smaller steal size, means you'll be facing smaller 3b sizes, which means stack to pot ratio will be deeper if you call, and you will have position. Given effective stacks remaining, you will also be able to profitably call a wider range of hands to 3b.
    Quote Originally Posted by Jay-Z
    I'm a couple hands down and I'm tryin' to get back
    I gave the other grip, I lost a flip for five stacks
  13. #13
    spoonitnow's Avatar
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    Folding such an exceptionally strong hand here makes you particularly vulnerable to flop check-minraises. It's not that playing in an exploitable way is bad (because you are by definition when you are exploiting someone else's play), but even if folding is correct in a vacuum here, then it's only barely so, and it's worth giving up that small amount of EV to avoid making yourself so ridiculously vulnerable to this flop check-minraise.
  14. #14
    MadMojoMonkey's Avatar
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    Excellent thread. Griffey is making me nod my head so much, he might as well be a DJ.


    EDIT: Math/Physics nerd love for the name Runge-Kutta.
    Last edited by MadMojoMonkey; 03-20-2015 at 11:56 AM.
  15. #15
    Yeah great points raised griffey.

    Thank you for raising point 3. I hadn't thought about it like that. I suppose it also means your 4b bluff raises get to be smaller overall which is also helpful
  16. #16
    Quote Originally Posted by renegaderob1 View Post
    Yeah great points raised griffey.

    Thank you for raising point 3. I hadn't thought about it like that. I suppose it also means your 4b bluff raises get to be smaller overall which is also helpful
    Yep, smaller 4b size is also nice! They might also be more willing to flat a small 4b OOP, which is fine by us. Playing a large pot IP can't be that bad.
    Quote Originally Posted by Jay-Z
    I'm a couple hands down and I'm tryin' to get back
    I gave the other grip, I lost a flip for five stacks
  17. #17
    Really good read.

    These two hands both occurred in tonight's session and this post came to mind. Each hand is the opposite end of the scenario.

    Hand 1
    PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.05 BB (9 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from http://flopturnriver.com/

    MP1 ($5.18)
    MP2 ($4.66)
    MP3 ($12.04)
    CO ($5)
    Button ($5.99)
    Hero (SB) ($5)
    BB ($5.49)
    UTG ($5)
    UTG+1 ($6.24)

    Preflop: Hero is SB with Q, Q
    3 folds, MP2 calls $0.05, MP3 raises to $0.25, 2 folds, Hero calls $0.23, 2 folds

    Flop: ($0.60) Q, K, A (2 players)
    Hero checks, MP3 bets $0.43, Hero raises to $1.60, MP3 raises to $11.79 (All-In), Hero calls $3.15 (All-In)

    Turn: ($10.10) 10 (2 players, 2 all-in)

    River: ($10.10) K (2 players, 2 all-in)

    Total pot: $10.10 | Rake: $0.42





    Hand 2

    PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.05 BB (9 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from http://flopturnriver.com/

    UTG ($1.79)
    UTG+1 ($2.20)
    MP1 ($8.25)
    MP2 ($6.33)
    MP3 ($4.86)
    Hero (CO) ($9.37)
    Button ($7.36)
    SB ($5.02)
    BB ($5)

    Preflop: Hero is CO with K, A
    5 folds, Hero raises to $0.20, 2 folds, BB calls $0.15

    Flop: ($0.42) K, A, 5 (2 players)
    BB checks, Hero bets $0.26, BB raises to $0.60, Hero calls $0.34

    Turn: ($1.62) J (2 players)
    BB bets $1.03, Hero raises to $2.06, BB raises to $4.20 (All-In), Hero calls $2.14

    River: ($10.02) 5 (2 players, 1 all-in)

    Total pot: $10.02 | Rake: $0.42
  18. #18
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    I would re raise SB..
  19. #19
    Quote Originally Posted by vatopkr View Post
    I would re raise SB..
    Yeah valid point. I didn't because villains fold to PF 3bet was so high. My thinking was that i am so far ahead of his range why chase him off?
  20. #20
    MadMojoMonkey's Avatar
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    You always raise the top of your range - that is, hands that have at least 50% equity against Villain's calling range.

    If Villain folds too much to a reraise, then, in general, you polarize your range. That means that instead of raising only your top hands, you split your raising range into some from the top and some from the bottom of your range.

    The basic rule is that you estimate Villain's calling range, and you raise with all the hands that have 50% or more equity against that range.
    Then you may find that you are still being exploited by bet-sizing, and now you're not raising often enough.
    You need to add more hands to your reraising range, but you don't want to add the strong hands with less than 50% equity.
    You want to add hands that you are happy to get Villain to fold, so you start adding the bottom of your range, as pure bluffs.

    The only reason to NOT reraise QQ PRE is if you have a very strong read that Villain's calling range gives your QQ less than 50% equity.

    I'm not going to bore you with the math behind the error bars on poker stats. It is enough to know that the error bars are going to cover a range of many %-age points. When you're looking at a very small number, like estimating a stat at 5%, the error bars are gong to go from like 2% to 9%.

    Meaning that even if the shown stat dictates that you may merely call with QQ, it won't be a "bad" play to raise with QQ, because the uncertainty you have in the shown stat is a real, verifiable amount.

    ***
    Moral of the story:
    If Villain calls a reraise with { JJ+,AQs+,AKo }, then you would have 48% equity with QQ.
    If Villain calls any wider than that, your equity will be above 50%, and you should be raising QQ.

    If NOT, then calling with QQ is prob. best.

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