Flop trips in position vs weak cbet

Flop standard?

Thoughts on the turn chk back? It looks like a WA/WB spot and I think we can get value on the river if we check the turn - I think villain is more likely middle pps than Ax that may fold the turn after the flop action but convince himself to call a bet on the river.

As played, is the river looking grim for hero?

PokerStars Zoom No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from http://flopturnriver.com

Hero (Button) ($55.70)
SB ($64.57)
BB ($89.83)
UTG ($62.92)
MP ($93.77)
CO ($175.57)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A, J
1 fold, MP raises to $1, 1 fold, Hero calls $1, 2 folds

Flop: ($2.75) A, 3, A (2 players)
MP bets $0.50, Hero raises to $2.91, MP calls $2.41

Turn: ($8.57) 9 (2 players)
MP checks, Hero checks

River: ($8.57) 2 (2 players)
MP bets $8, Hero??

Well if you're playing the hand like this then it's got to be with the intention of snap calling river.

You raise the flop because you think you're ahead, so nothing has changed now. That being said I would probably raise flop somewhat smaller to induce oop floats or re-bluffs. $1.65-$2ish or something.

Raise flop, b/ f turn. Fold river now

Vs Middle PP's the correct play is betting the turn. Because checking isn't likely to get more value than betting. It's more than likely just letting him free roll you for his 2 outs of which you will always call a river bet when he hits. Just bet like 40% pot on the turn IMO.

On the river I would make a fairly easy call.

Call. Don't hate the pot control on turn. Hes betting pp's for value on the river.

Originally Posted by dranger7070

Call. Don't hate the pot control on turn. Hes betting pp's for value on the river.

I think this is very unlikely imo, and certainly unlikely given the sizing he's decided to use. Unless he's turning a low pocket into a bluff here, like 44/55 or something, in which case i can maybe see that. I really don't think this is value with JJ-KK though.

I do not understand the check on the Turn. All it does is give the villian a free card and increaes the risk of them hitting two pair with an A or trips. Surely you had to bet on the Turn and try and take the money at that point. It looks to me like he has hit two pair or trips and you are faced with a really tough decision now on the River.

I think there is a lot that can be learned from this hand. I think there are a lot of inconsistencies between decisions at certain junctures in this hand and future decisions.

Flop) We have trip aces. Presumably our flop raise is for value and not a bluff. For this raise to be for value, we need villain to call with more worse than better hands.

Decision: To raise or to flat, which is more EV? In this instance hero chooses to raise which is fine, but you should always think about the possibility that vs some players flatting may in fact be greater EV if villain is prone to bluffing but folding most of his small sizing cbet range.

Decision: Once we decide to raise, what size? Hero chooses a pretty large size imo. I think if vill calls, he still calls with more worse than better, but I think a smaller size (1.85 or so) is probably better.

Decision: Estimate what range you think villain is continuing with. My estimate is 33 (3), 88+ (30 combos), A2s-ATs (7 combos), AJ(3), AQ(4), AK(4). We beat 88+ (30), A2-ATs (7) - 37 combos. We lose to 33 (3), AQ (4), AK (4) - 11 combos.

Turn) 9d

Assumption: From the flop, we presumably chose a sizing that we felt villain would continue to that contained more worse hands than better. (If this is NOT true then we made a mistake in flop sizing).

Decision: Did this turn card significantly improve his range?

We were beating 37 combos and losing to 11 combos. The 9 improves his 99 (3) and A9ss (1).
We are now beating 33 combos and losing to 15 combos.

Decision: Bet vs Check.
If we bet X size, will villain still continue with more worse combos than better?
If we check, will villain bluff/bet enough combos of hands that would have otherwise folded on the turn, to make up for the value lost by not betting when his worse hands might have called one or two bets?

In this spot we still beat 33 combos and lose to 15. I think we beat enough of his range to definitely bet here. We just have to bet a size that doesn't blow out most of his worse hands. Bet sizing is CRITICAL here between making a good value bet and a mistake value bet.

6 of his combos are calling most bet sizes (A2-ATs)
27 of his pair combos (88,TT-KK) may or may not fold. We need him to continue with at least 9 of these hands. As played, I think a bet sizing of $3.50 will easily get called by JJ(3),QQ(6),KK(6) - 15 combos, making a total of 21 worse calling and 15 better.

River)
Decision: If we bet turn, we were beating 21 combos and losing to 15. After this river, A2s improves, we are beating 20 combos and losing to 16. A value bet here is clearly very thin and we must choose a sizing that will not blow out any of his worse pockets. In order to do this we will have to bet small likely, which will get raised by some of his hands (33,A2,A9). If we can't b/f here then a check is best.

Decision: After having checked turn, he gets to river with 32 combos we are beating and 16 we lose to.
He will pot with all 16 we lose to. We need about 33% to call, so we need him to bet 8 combos of worse.
He will likely bet all Ax like this, so that is 6 combos we beat.
The main decision is: Will he bet / spazz with 2 of his remaining 26 combos on the river? I think this is definitely likely enough after our turn check that we must call river.

This is just the type of thinking that should be considered here. I think the main mistake in this hand was the flop raise sizing. Choosing a bad sizing here influences the number of worse hands that continue, and this propagates through every subsequent street.

The turn check may or may not be a mistake. We saw in my example that there is minimal value in a river bet, so we don't have 3 streets anyhow, so a turn check may not be so bad depending on villain's tendencies.

It's probably a mistake to raise for value on the flop and then fold to river as played though. Though as my calculation showed, even that is a close river decision and probably not a fist pump.