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Does this OP have logic behind his responses and plays?

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  1. #1

    Default Does this OP have logic behind his responses and plays?

    OP is betting small on flop and turn, I am wondering are we really trying to bet this size ? it feels to small, are we being called by worse or making better hands fold ? what do you think ? The person commenting as "Casey55" is me .

    https://www.pokerstrategy.com/forum/...23#post3108223

    just tell me if I am blatantly wrong I don't mind, I don't know what the proper answer is I just feel like his small bets arn't doing much, I think his point is that he would do this if he held his Nut hands like AA or KK aswell but we have a bluff with equity here do we want to bet bigger and put pressure on his marginal hands/ top pair or is his betting 1/3 on flop betting 1/3 on turn have merit? I think he said his idea is he plans to shove on most rivers but what do you think about that ? I think his opponent may have been reading his 1/3pots on flop and turn as weak .
    Last edited by DonkeyBets; 02-21-2020 at 09:07 PM.
  2. #2
    idk how bad those stakes are, but it's still micros and there's surely still plenty of fish calling too much. I think just bet flop half pot. Yes it means these bluffs need to get through more often, but on the flip side we get more value when we have AQ QQ+, and if we're only bluffing AK and AJs here then we're doing ok.

    I think turn he should just check/fold. It's hard to imagine he has anything we beat, and once he calls flop he probably has enough of it to call turn. JTs might fold, JJ probably won't. idk, we need reads really and we don't seem to have any. I haven't read through the replies though, just OP. Assuming no reads, I guess it depends how fishy these stakes are. It's been a long time since I played 5nl. I'm leaning turn c/f though.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  3. #3
    I think turn he should just check/fold.
    WE should check/fold, that should say.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  4. #4
    MadMojoMonkey's Avatar
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    He says OTF he wants to be able to go for stacks OTR, at least some times. However, his sizing in the hand would require a PSB shove OTR, which probably isn't optimal for Villain's response. Which we could ignore, 'cause micros, except his whole argument for betting so small is that this villain is savvy enough to respond appropriately to that size. Seems like he's switching his read mid-flow if he's betting small to exploit villain's awareness, but then shipping large on the river to exploit that villain wont be able to respond appropriately.

    This is a decent example of what I said in another thread about sizing your bets OTF and OTT for a river shove being something you don't need to put too much thought into, just bet ~2/3 PSB on each street and you'll be sized OK for a river shove.
    In this hand, 3-bet PRE means he can get stacks in with 1/2 PSB's pretty well.

    I have only the same advice as before. There's little-to-no benefit to your growth as a poker player in the micros to be looking at when and why to bet smaller than 1/2 PSB. The Villain's against whom this matters are not the majority of the population of fish you should be targeting.
    There are so many more important leaks in any micro-stakes player's game to focus on that come up more often and have a greater affect on your bb/100 hands.
    You can find any pattern you want to any level of precision you want, if you're prepared to ignore enough data.
  5. #5
    very interesting thanks for responding. I was wondering if we look at villains re-raise on the turn

    1.40/4.19=.334. =33% is how often his bet needs to work as a pure bluff to break even

    If we give hero a range of: QQ+, AK. he has Ace-high 51% of the time, meaning this re-raise as a bluff is not such a bad idea since he needs to defend 67% of his range but only has a premium hand like over-pair and set a total of 48% of the time.. Although with AK he has a gutshot. I thought that part was interesting what do you think about this ?

    Another thing I was thinking about was calling villains min-raise on the turn , We have about 29% Equity versus villains Check-Raise range on the turn:

    JJ-TT,AQs-ATs,KJs+,QJs,AQo

    we need to call $0.70 to win a pot of $4.19, we need roughly 2:1 pot odds given our Equity and we are gettiing 5.9:1, I know part of the reason of our good odds is because we just put .70c in. On the River if an Ace comes we have 50% Equity, if a King comes we have 73% Equity and if a Jack comes we have the nuts. Does this mean even on a river an A,K,J comes if we check and villain goes all in.

    pot on river=$4.89

    Hero checks,Villain shoves $2.58

    Pot odds will be 2.89 to 1 meaning we need to be good 1 out of about 3 times and we have that equity assuming he is capable of doing this with his whole range of JJ-TT,AQs-ATs,KJs+,QJs,AQo which would be turning some of his hands into bluffs but I thought it was interesting to look at. We could also shove river on 1 of these 3 cards ? I'm not sure was just speculating the hand.
    Last edited by DonkeyBets; 02-22-2020 at 08:26 PM.

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