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Cooler of the year?

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  1. #1

    Default Cooler of the year?

    No point to this thread really, just thought this was funny. Poor dude - what you gonna do, fold?

    Poker Stars, $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
    Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

    BTN: $146.17 (584.7 bb)
    Hero (SB): $73.10 (292.4 bb)
    BB: $8.50 (34 bb)
    UTG: $85.18 (340.7 bb)
    MP: $72.43 (289.7 bb)
    CO: $26.71 (106.8 bb)

    Preflop: Hero is SB with A A
    UTG raises to $0.75, 2 folds, BTN calls $0.75, Hero raises to $2.75, BB folds, UTG calls $2, BTN calls $2

    Flop: ($8.50) 4 A A (3 players)
    Hero checks, UTG checks, BTN checks

    Turn: ($8.50) 6 (3 players)
    Hero bets $2.75, UTG calls $2.75, BTN calls $2.75

    River: ($16.75) Q (3 players)
    Hero bets $5.50, UTG raises to $23, BTN folds, Hero raises to $67.60 and is all-in, UTG calls $44.60

    Results: $151.95 pot ($2 rake)
    Final Board: 4 A A 6 Q
    BTN mucked and lost (-$5.50 net)
    Hero showed A A and won $149.95 ($76.85 net)
    UTG mucked Q Q and lost (-$73.10 net)
  2. #2
    Lukie's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by BorisTheSpider View Post
    No point to this thread really, just thought this was funny. Poor dude - what you gonna do, fold?
    yup
  3. #3
    I think this hand is pretty interesting actually.

    You play this so transparently Boris with your line and sizing that villains both have an easy fold on the turn (at worst, you have KK when you take this line). You're also also missing out on a shed-load of bbs with your sizing, since half pot would likely still get two calls (since nobody believes you've flopped trips) and you make an extra 12bb over the sizing you used the 92%-96% of the time villains don't river a boat.

    You need to bet this flop imo, but whether bet/bet or bet/chk is a better line, I'm not sure.
  4. #4
    Yes he should fold, he doesn't even have the fourth nuts, from his perspective.
    Quote Originally Posted by Jay-Z
    I'm a couple hands down and I'm tryin' to get back
    I gave the other grip, I lost a flip for five stacks
  5. #5
    Yeah, I agree - I was thinking more about this hand last night:

    From his perspective I can have:

    AQ x 2
    A4 x 6
    A6 x 6

    With my line and river sizing, I think he can never really expect me to have worse, but as soon as he raised the river I expected to get a jam called by QQ because, well, zeebos law.

    BC - yeah, I agree half pot on the turn is much better.

    I have the deck so crushed, if I bet the flop I think I'm essentially hoping someone has the nut heart draw, and that's pretty unlikely in a 3bet pot when Ah is on board. Myabe KK calls one street, but KK probably 4bets so is unlikely. I can't really see why I'd want to bet here - I crush it so hard, my only hope of getting any value seems to be to let someone catch up a bit no?
  6. #6
    Lukie's Avatar
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    Flip this around and be honest. What hands would you actually play this way? I think you almost always have aces here. You might stumble into aces full with something like As6s if you occasionally 3-bet those types of hands in that preflop situation. But you're never bluffing on the shove and you're never overplaying AK or hearts this badly.
  7. #7
    How long did he take to make the final call?
    Was it a crying call or was he still caught out by the joy of filling up on the river?
    If he takes the time to think about it Aces full becomes more of a possibility,
    but the quads is still a slam dunk.
  8. #8
    Quote Originally Posted by chemist View Post
    How long did he take to make the final call?
    Was it a crying call or was he still caught out by the joy of filling up on the river?
    He insta-snapped it off. Zeebos theorem yo.
  9. #9
    I'm betting this flop somewhere in the region of never, roughly about as often as villain hits it. I'd probably check the turn too seeing as we know villains do not have trips and will pay us off on river if they fill up.

    If I were villain I would assume at river that hero has A4 or AA, I'd expect A6 to bet flop due to hearts, and 44 is unlikely to 3bet pre or shove over this river raise. I certainly wouldn't snap call this river, though I might tank, call and break the mouse for not being good enough to fold a boat when it's obviously crushed. But villain only has an underboat, an important concept when facing a shove of this size on the river. He's crushed by all boats except 44 and 66, which we don't have in our range, and AK is not going to check flop, pussy bet turn and overplay river. This is a ldfo fold in theory, but much more difficult in practise. That said, I'd like to think I can make this fold on the river based on us having an underboat and beating nothing that shoves this deep.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  10. #10
    Yah to play devil's advocate for player with QQ.

    -Villain likely won't check some weak Ax on flop, like A6, given there are hearts there (so villain can't have A6)
    -Villain might check A4 on flop, but would bet turn potentially harder and certainly bet river harder once he got called on the turn since villain can have worse Ax (so A4 not likely)
    -For the combined reasons above, villain will not show up with AQ with this line and these sizing choices. Villain also blocks AQ.
    -44/66 are unlikely due to preflop and due to hero's line and sizing

    Really the ONLY hand that makes sense that QQ loses to that takes this line + sizing combination is the one combo of AA (has the deck so crippled it bets smaller on turn / river since there's not much worse that can call)
    Quote Originally Posted by Jay-Z
    I'm a couple hands down and I'm tryin' to get back
    I gave the other grip, I lost a flip for five stacks
  11. #11
    If I concluded as villain that hero's range is AA, I wouldn't fold because quite frankly it's ridiculous to give someone a range that is one combo large. I think it's fair to say that A4 can take hero's line too because it flops the nuts and is only losing to A6 and AQ by river, while beating 44 66 QQ and any Ax that villain is overplaying. If hero shoves this river with A4 and gets called by boats only, it's +ev because there's 1x 44, 6x 66, 6x QQ (=13) vs 3x AQ, 3x A6 (=6). In fact we're only losing river rake if he only calls QQ AQ A6, if my combo counting is correct, so we'd only need one call from worse than QQ some stupidly small % of the time to move into clear profit territory.

    So yeah I'm folding river as villain if I am on top of my game, because I think hero's range is A4 and AA (=7 combos), and very very occasionaly he's gonna show up with 44 A6 and 66, but they all cancel each other out anyway.

    But I can easily make this call too because it takes skill and discipline to make this fold, and those two aspects rarely click into place for me.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  12. #12
    If my combo counting is off, I'd quite appreciate it if someone corrected me, this is the part of my game I'm trying to focus on at the moment.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  13. #13
    LOL for a hand I initially though was kind of uninteresting, this has actually turned out to be a very worthwhile discussion.

    Quote Originally Posted by OngBonga View Post
    If I concluded as villain that hero's range is AA, I wouldn't fold because quite frankly it's ridiculous to give someone a range that is one combo large.
    Although I can see what you mean in one sense (and I do sometimes have MUBS and concentrate on small parts of peoples ranges that I don't want to run into), I don't think this is necessarily a valid way to look at it. Sometimes, if someones range literally is one (or very few combos) folding is absolutely OK.

    For example, a 10/7 opens UTG, he folds to 80% of 3bets and his 4bet range is 1%. You 3bet him with AA, he flats. Flop is K72r, he checks, you pot it and he jams for another 150bb. You calling?

    Same player opens UTG, you 3bet on the button, the BB cold 4bets and the nit UTG jams it in. Happy about your kings now?

    So although I think it's rare, sometimes I do think you can fold even when someones range seems ridiculously narrow. I know it's not quite the 1-combo range we were talking about, but it's not far off.

    I think it's fair to say that A4 can take hero's line too because it flops the nuts and is only losing to A6 and AQ by river
    Yeah, I agree up to a point. I think A4 can play exactly like this right up until the river jam. I think I'd just flat his river raise normally with A4, unless I was very confident he could overplay a bare ace or smaller boat. Maybe that's a mistake, but I think I'd often just call the river raise there.

    Your analysis of why jamming A4 is +EV if he calls with all the boats is interesting. I get a slightly different result, A6s is only possible for villain on this board when we hold A4s if we have Ac4c, then he can have Ad6d, otherwise if we have Ad4d, Ac6c is blocked by the 6 on the board being the 6c. In this situation, I have QQ being 43% of his range, so we lose to 57%, and that assumes he always raises the river and calls a jam with queens full.

    Holding A6 is the opposite, we win 57% if he calls a jam with all the aces full combos and QQ.

    I agree that it's somewhat unlikely for A6 to check back the flop, but I certainly feel like I can check the flop back here at least somewhat often with A6 - the board, other than the heart draw, is dry. I'm not as worried about the heart draw as I am about building a big pot with a dominated ace here, and if I get called by worse I'm almost never getting 3 streets anyway, so I probably quite often check back the flop for pot control and deception. If the flush turns or rivers and I'm unimproved, I'll deal with that when I come to it - for now, I'm more concerned that betting the flop is way too thin and if called I'm out of position for the rest of the hand with a low(er) SPR, very deep stacks, a flush draw out there and a hand that's too good to c/f and too bad to be happy about shovelling in money with.


    But I can easily make this call too because it takes skill and discipline to make this fold, and those two aspects rarely click into place for me.
    Having thought this hand through, I actually think I do raise-fold QQ. I originally posted indicating I didn't think he could fold, because I make a lot of bad hero folds myself, so I have to work on that - however this probably isn't a bad spot for one, and in-game I really doubt I call it off with QQ on the river here. I doubt I could ever fold A4 here, but that's very marginal as we've established and doesn't seem to matter much either way.
  14. #14
    There's a significant difference between one combo and very few combos.

    The thing about villain having a range that is one combo large... he only needs to bluff as often as he gets dealt the range he's repping for us to break even (ignoring rake). On that basis I'd make the call with QQ, if I concluded that hero never 3bets A4. But in this hand I'd factor in A4 as well and now we need him to be bluffing 7 times more often, because he's 7 more times more likely to have A4 or AA than he is just AA (7 combos vs 1). That's what I mean by a significant difference between one combo and very few.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  15. #15
    Even if hero only has A4s and AA (which is what I'd assume as villain), then that's 3x more likely to happen than AA alone.

    Folding a boat to a range of 3 combos is pretty sick in its own right, but it would also be pretty sick for hero to have worse than QQ here. I think the point I'm making is I'd expect the probability of hero being full of shit here is roughly about as often as him having AA. I'd only need to conclude it's a bluff a non-zero % and it's a call, if hero reps AA only.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  16. #16
    Lukie's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by OngBonga View Post
    If I concluded as villain that hero's range is AA, I wouldn't fold because quite frankly it's ridiculous to give someone a range that is one combo large. I think it's fair to say that A4 can take hero's line too because it flops the nuts and is only losing to A6 and AQ by river, while beating 44 66 QQ and any Ax that villain is overplaying. If hero shoves this river with A4 and gets called by boats only, it's +ev because there's 1x 44, 6x 66, 6x QQ (=13) vs 3x AQ, 3x A6 (=6). In fact we're only losing river rake if he only calls QQ AQ A6, if my combo counting is correct, so we'd only need one call from worse than QQ some stupidly small % of the time to move into clear profit territory.

    So yeah I'm folding river as villain if I am on top of my game, because I think hero's range is A4 and AA (=7 combos), and very very occasionaly he's gonna show up with 44 A6 and 66, but they all cancel each other out anyway.

    But I can easily make this call too because it takes skill and discipline to make this fold, and those two aspects rarely click into place for me.
    It isn't crazy to give someone a range only 1 combo large when the hand involves a player stacking off 300bb deep, with most of that coming on the river with a seemingly reasonable hero b/3b shoving into a very possible boat.

    Your analysis shows the flaws of using unweighted ranges. 6 combos of A4 and 1 combo of AA sounds good but in reality I'd expect hero to nearly always 3-bet preflop with AA and almost never 3-bet with any given combo of A4 (usually folding A4o and calling the 2 combos of A4s) which makes AA far more likely than A4 given preflop action alone.
    Last edited by Lukie; 11-20-2013 at 09:34 AM.
  17. #17
    Ok so maybe there are times when villain reps just one combo, but the point I'm making is when his range is literally only one combo large, we need to pick off a bluff so rarely (ie as often as we flop quads with AA) that I'm struggling to believe I can ever fold when I reach that conclusion.

    But you're right about my combo analysis. Even if we say he 3bets 50% of the time with A4s, and calls 50%, his range is down to 2 combos. But this is just talking me into calling it off with QQ on the river. If his range is 2 combos large, then he can bluff twice as often as he flops quads and we're still only losing the rake paid on river.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  18. #18
    Lukie's Avatar
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    It is a little more complicated than that.
  19. #19
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    Wait - You're saying that AA beating QQ is cooler of the year? lol

    My AA just got cracked by JJ with the whole table in the pot. That's not even an amazing cooler.

    Shit happens.
    Last edited by Nostalgia; 11-21-2013 at 05:32 PM.
  20. #20
    Quote Originally Posted by Nostalgia View Post
    Wait - You're saying that AA beating QQ is cooler of the year? lol

    My AA just got cracked by JJ with the whole table in the pot. That's not even an amazing cooler.

    Shit happens.
    I believe the board in this hand MIGHT have something to do with calling it a cooler.
    Quote Originally Posted by Jay-Z
    I'm a couple hands down and I'm tryin' to get back
    I gave the other grip, I lost a flip for five stacks
  21. #21
    Quote Originally Posted by griffey24 View Post
    I believe the board in this hand MIGHT have something to do with calling it a cooler.
    The funniest thing about this is

    http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/32...tiway-1391674/
    Last edited by Savy; 11-21-2013 at 07:31 PM. Reason: If linking to 2+2 isn't allowed just delete the post pls
  22. #22
    I mean it was a popular bad beat, even referred to here:

    http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...ed-196473.html

    Nostalgia - Focusing on bad beats won't lead to progress. Even this thread probably shouldn't have started (given the original motivation was likely not strategic) but it did result in good discussion.
    Quote Originally Posted by Jay-Z
    I'm a couple hands down and I'm tryin' to get back
    I gave the other grip, I lost a flip for five stacks
  23. #23
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    Quote Originally Posted by ImSavy View Post
    You really find that funny?

    No wonder you play games called "World War Werewolf". What a nerd.
  24. #24
    Haha this guy.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  25. #25
    Quote Originally Posted by Lukie View Post
    It is a little more complicated than that.
    Yeah I had to take a step back and try to figure out if you're wrong here, or I'm wrong.

    but the point I'm making is when his range is literally only one combo large, we need to pick off a bluff so rarely (ie as often as we flop quads with AA)
    And after some thought, this comment is way off. Dunno what line of logic got me here but it's heavily flawed.

    Let's say hero has a 3bet range of exactly KK+... well there's 6x KK and 1x AA... villain would only need hero to turn his KK into a bluff once to counter the one combo that actually beats him... so if hero can bluff this river spot 1 in 7 times, villain can make a profitable call... obviously this is not nearly as juicy as the idea that we need to pick a bluff as often as hero flops quads, which is around 1 in 400.

    But still, the wider hero's 3bet range is, the more likely it becomes that hero is bluffing. If we say hero is 3betting exactly JJ+, well now there's 6x JJ, 6x KK and 1x AA... so of the 13 combos hero now has, 12 can be bluffs, so villain is looking to pick off a bluff 1 in 13 times to profit, because we only have the nuts 1 in 13 times.

    So if the range of hands that beat us that hero reps is exactly one combo large, then it's clear we don't need to pick off a bluff nearly as often as when there's many combos that beats us... but my initial estimates were quite some way off, so granted, you're right luckie, it's not quite as simple as I first thought.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  26. #26
    It still seems flawed. Someone better than me explain why my logic is fucked please.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  27. #27
    Quote Originally Posted by OngBonga View Post
    It still seems flawed. Someone better than me explain why my logic is fucked please.
    Looking at it from a different perspective, I shove for about pot giving him $44.60 to call into an $89.85 pot, almost exactly 2:1, so he needs to be winning 1/3 of the time to break even calling that.

    If he beats only my bluffs (which I think we've agreed), taking your JJ+ range for me, I have 12 combos I could be bluffing with and 1 I'm value betting, so I'd need half a combo of bluffs (along with one of value bets), if I had more than 1/2 a combo of bluffs, calling would be +EV for villain. One time in 24 that I held JJ/KK I'd need to be bluffing.

    That's only giving me a rather odd JJ+ range though, so let's be more realistic - I can definitely have A4s/A6s here (I disagree with the idea that I can't have A6s as I said earlier, maybe I should bet A6s on the flop here, but I often wouldn't), I don't think I can have AQs too often - value raising it OOP wouldn't be great (UTG was tight), and it's too good to bluff with preflop - I'd rather play a multiway pot, so since there's only 2 combos of it left anyway by the river, lets just ignore AQs and say, with weighting preflop, I can never have it.

    Preflop, there's $1.85 in the pot, I 3bet to $2.75 making the pot $4.60, let's say a typical 4bet size here would be about $6, an extra $5.25 to UTG, so I lay him $4.60 to $5.25 on a bluff, so he can 4bet any two cards if I'm bluffing more than 53% of the time, so if I'm 3betting KK+ for value here, I can be bluffing about 12 combos, or say A4s-A6s. That also assumes that the BTN never calls a 4bet, and that I bluff this much vs. a tight UTG open and a cold call. I can have some more 3bet bluffs if I intend to 5bet bluff, but we're so deep he can flat a 5bet IP here, he was also tight UTG and he also was not someone I had a ton of hands on and I'd be more inclined to 5bet bluff if he was a reg and I thought he'd take a note, and also if I knew I could show down a bluff if called (ie. if we were 100bb deep and I could bluff jam), so we'll say I'm never 5bet bluffing here.

    KK, as I'll expand on below, I think it's very unlikely that I can be betting the river with, and even if I am there's certainly no value in him raising.

    A5s is very similar to KK here, almost the same hand in fact, so I think betting the river would be too thin, but meh - maybe KK could call one more small bet, but it's a very small part of his range as it would nearly always 4bet preflop.

    So I can be betting the river with only AA, A4s and A6s if the preflop range I gave is correct. His stats were tight, and he's opened UTG, so if we weight A4s-A6s to say I only 3bet them about half the time, then my river range is even more value oriented.

    Looking at that range, I have 1 combo of AA, 2 of A4s and 2 of A6s that I can be betting the river for value with. For him to pick off a bluff, I need to be bluffing with 3 combos. What that I intend to bluff with do I check back the flop though? Maybe if I can have AJo preflop, I check back the flop for pot control, then bet the turn, I then bet the river very very thinly indeed and _always_ decide to turn it into a bluff when he raises the river - that gives me 4 bluff combos, assuming that I have quite a lot of preflop bluffs in this spot. It seems unlikely.

    How often do I check back the flop with KK?, if I then bet the turn really small and am called, is betting the river really small too thin - I think so, and he can't imagine that I'm then calling a big river raise, so we'd have to assume that I took this line of trying to get exceedingly thin value from something like JJ/TT on the river, then when he made a big river raise I decided to turn it into a bluff, but on this board how often can I expect that bluff to work?

    I'm jamming for another $44.60 into a $45.25 pot, so I need a bluff to work half the time there to break even. I think that would be an exceedingly thin bluff this deep and on this board - he can have a lot that isn't the stone nuts that still is never folding.

    I can actually have more boat combos than him after preflop, but if he calls QQ (which he did) what is he actually folding (and given zeebos law, what is it reasonable to expect he might fold?):

    Assuming I hold KK he can have:

    - 6 x AQ
    - 3 x 44
    - 3 x 66
    - 3 x QQ
    - 4 x AK
    - We'll rule out AA for not 4betting preflop, which especially with so much dead money in the pot encouraging overcalls I think AA always 4bets pre here.

    Ignoring his own bluffs (and KK beats most of them anyway, but I guess raising AJ here is a bluff, still, I think KK beats 95% of what we could call a bluff by him when he raises the river), he can have 19 combos he'd raise for value on the river, unless he's insane he can fold AK, but I don't know how much else. Zeebos law. Even if he folds 44 and 66, he folds 10 combos and calls with 9, which taking rake into account probably makes it a bad bluff, and certainly no better than a breakeven spot with unnecessary variance.

    If I have JJ then AK is unblocked, now he can be raising:

    - 6 x AQ
    - 3 x 44
    - 3 x 66
    - 3 x QQ
    - 8 x AK

    Thats 23 total combos, of which AK/44/66 are 14 combos, so now he can fold about 61% of his river raising range, so the bluff is just about good here, making the very very ambitious assumption that he's ever capable of folding a boat.
    Last edited by BorisTheSpider; 11-22-2013 at 10:05 AM.
  28. #28
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    The most ambitious assumption you made in your analysis is not that he will be [raising and then] folding certain boats, it's that your ranges inherently imply that he will be playing all of those hands in the range the same way all of the time. He won't be.

    Take QQ and AK for example. There are 4 streets of action that he can reasonably deviate and play one hand more likely than the other. The post-flop play especially makes AK unlikely. Highly doubt he checks the flop, calls the dinky bet on the turn, and then raises (??) the river with AK. QQ does reasonably fit though. {edit: talking about the hypothetical where you have JJ of course}

    Or take 44. It would be a very peculiar line for him to take with an underfull.. checking flop and only starting to play aggressively when several other possible bigger boats are out there.

    From your perspective, shoving this river with anything other than AA or aces full is suicidal and even some of the aces fulls can reasonably be debated (you said earlier in the thread that you would probably just call A4 here.)
    Last edited by Lukie; 11-22-2013 at 06:01 PM.
  29. #29
    Quote Originally Posted by Nostalgia View Post
    You really find that funny?

    No wonder you play games called "World War Werewolf". What a nerd.
    Yeah, really funny. I can explain why if you like. It should be pretty obvious though.
  30. #30
    Thanks luckie and boris.

    Luckie, the assumption isn't that he always plays his range the same, it's that in a range of KK+, when only 1 combo of AA is winning, then he only needs to turn his KK into a bluff 1 in 6 times, because he has it 6x more often than AA.

    I'll read and try to take in boris' monster post shortly.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  31. #31
    I thought of one other perspective to look at this from on the river - what should I jam with if I intend to make his bluffcatchers break even - ie. to make him indifferent to calling with QQ here, so he can't comfortably always fold it, nor can he comfortably always call with it.

    He has $44.60 to call into a $89.85 pot, getting pretty much exactly 2:1, so I want to give him 33% equity with QQ to make it a breakeven call for him. If we say I'm always jamming AA and AQ for value which makes sense, that's 7 value combos, so 3 to 4 bluff combos gives him the correct equity, it'd be nice to block an ace when bluff jamming so if I can have A5s preflop and get to the river this way with it, I should bluff jam it half the time here.

    If I'm jamming wider for value like AA, AQ and A6s, that's 11 value combos, so I need 5 to 6 bluff combos, so jamming A5s about three quarters of the time balances my river jamming range to make QQ a breakeven call for villain.
  32. #32
    That's some interesting insight there.

    We need to factor in what else he would consider a bluff catcher. If he thinks QQ is good vs this shove, what else could be? Can he call 44, Kxhh or AK? Where's the balance point to have him in a tricky spot with a range of KThh KJhh AK 44 QQ A4s A6s?
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  33. #33
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    Quote Originally Posted by OngBonga View Post
    Thanks luckie and boris.

    Luckie, the assumption isn't that he always plays his range the same, it's that in a range of KK+, when only 1 combo of AA is winning, then he only needs to turn his KK into a bluff 1 in 6 times, because he has it 6x more often than AA.

    I'll read and try to take in boris' monster post shortly.
    People who 3b shove bluff in spots like this even 1/6 of the time have long been removed from the poker world. They either wisened up or went broke many years ago.
  34. #34
    Quote Originally Posted by Lukie View Post
    People who 3b shove bluff in spots like this even 1/6 of the time have long been removed from the poker world. They either wisened up or went broke many years ago.
    Yeah I actually do agree with this in practice. Although it's theoretically sound to make his QQ break even, since he'll always call with it once he's raised it, it doesn't matter if we make it a losing hand for him, because he'll just keep calling anyway, he's not about to exploit me by raise-folding it if I jam an unbalanced, excessively value-heavy range.

    We can talk about balancing our river shoving range with some bluffs, and that is a good exercise to do in terms of thought process, but at these stakes I think expecting anyone to raise-fold a boat (any boat) on this river is pretty suicidal. Against a known capable opponent who will raise a small boat for value here then fold to a shove, it could be good, but as a population read at my stakes I'd be inclined to never bluff shove this river in practise, because I think once the river gets raised we have pretty much no fold equity ever.
    Last edited by BorisTheSpider; 11-24-2013 at 10:43 AM.
  35. #35
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    It's just really not a good place to bluff shove at the end. You're shoving so much into such a strong range that I really think the optimal bluffing percentage is 0. If you have something like Tc7c or whatever air and want to make a move you are just so much better off barreling. Usually c-bet, sometimes follow up with a 2nd barrel, and occasionally fire 3. But don't let someone make a hand they like enough to value raise on the river and then try to shove him off it.
  36. #36
    Again you're right luckie, I don't expect KK to shove river 1 in 6 times. Pretty much all my posting in this thread has been an exrecise in trying to get my head around how often villain need hero to bluff to call a bluffcatcher vs a range of 1 combo + bluffs. Hero's 3b range is going to be wider than KK+, so villain won't need a crazy bluff shove 1 in 6 times, that's what he needs if hero is 3betting KK+ only. If hero is wider (which he is), then villain doesn't need to catch bluffs as often.

    Hero can have A5s too, and he'll admit he sometimes has A6s too, despite checking flop. That's fine. Hero's river range before he shoves can be pretty much everything he 3bets pre. When he shoves it's now A4s A6s AA and anything he decides to bluff. So now there isn't 1 combo beating villain's QQ, there's 4. How many combos does villain beat? Well there's 6 KK, 6 JJ, 6 TT, 8 AK, then we've got A2s-A4s and A7s-AJs, which is a further 16 combos. So it's 4 vs 38 combos. Now hero only needs to turn his hand into a bluff 4 times in 38, or just under 1 in 10 times. This is a little more realistic, though possibly still short of the requirement.

    This is a call for villain if he thinks hero can value shove Ax. I doubt Axs and KK bluff with anywhere near enough frequency to consider QQ a bluffcatcher in all honesty, but if hero had AA and bluffs only, and not the 3 combos of A5s and A6s, then it's a lot more reasonable for villain to think he can pick off a bluff often enough to profitably call QQ.

    This thread has been quite enlightening for a cooler thread.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong

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