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Originally Posted by DonkeyBets
Example on the turn you check and villain bets $3.50 into 7$ pot
Your pot odds to call are 3:1
Does this mean you need to be good 1 in 4 times to call the turn or does this kind of assessment best suited for the river without further betting rounds ?
When the payout odds are 3:1, you need to win the bet 25% or more. This is always true, because it's deeper than poker. It's just math.
For any financial decision, if the cost to participate is C, and the reward for participation is R, then the break even point is P, the percent of times you need to achieve the reward for each entry fee, where 0 <= P <= 100%.
P of the time, we win R. (1-P) of the time, we lose C.
P*R - (1-P)*C = 0 | Our problem to solve for P
P*R - C + P*C = 0 | Distribute to eliminate the ()
P*R + P*C = C | Rearrange in preparation to isolate P
P*(R+C) = C | Reverse distribute to isolate P
P = C / (R+C) | We are finished
P = bet / (pot + bet) is just the way it appears in poker.
Where poker makes it complicated is in implied odds. I.e. the value of the payout is assumed to be bigger than it actually, currently is. You imply that if you call now, you will get another bet or call from Villain.
What happens after the bet in question affects the total profitability of the line, but the fundamental basic part hasn't changed. If the total equity of the call is above 25%, you can profitably call. That total equity includes the additional equity of when you bluff them off the best hand and the reduced equity of when you fail to bluff or when you make your draw and they don't put in any more bets, etc.
Originally Posted by DonkeyBets
Say on the turn we only need to be beating his hands 1/4 times so what I have to do is discypher what he could be bluffing with versus what he’s value betting so decide if I am in fact good enough to call profitably..I’m trying to also figure out bluffing ranges so I can make correct calls with the value to bluff ratio but I’m trying to tie it all together here.
That's an good way to go about it.
As ever, work on understanding your own ranges first. Figure out when and why you bluff, and what you expect when you do so.
Each villain will bluff differently, in different spots, for different reasons, with different bet sizes.... that's all stuff you kinda have to just take on a case by case basis.
Starting by understanding your own ranges gives you a baseline to compare their ranges to, and to try to extrapolate, "if they're doing A, then maybe they also do Aa..." and you can work in steps like that.
You'll 100% always be surprised by villains. You're not a mind-reader. This is guess-work that punishes us with every missed guess. It hits the opponents just as much as us, more preferably.
Have you tried playing with my suggested Pre-flop ranges, yet? I'm interested in your feedback, as I think it's the correct place to start figuring out ranges.
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