Can we c/f turn?

Villain seems competent enough, 24/17/4.0. Seems positonally aware too.

Sure, it looks like the kind of flop where he can stack off with a lot worse - but can he really have it?

Say his calling range for the 3bet is [QQ, JJ, TT, AQs, AQo] then 57% of his range on the flop is straights. If he folds QQ on the flop, or at least only calls one street then shuts down with it, then 72% of his turn continuing range is straights and the rest are the undersets.

Thoughts?

PokerStars Zoom No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (6 handed) - Converted at http://www.handhistoryconverter.com

Button ($38.31)
SB ($29.93)
BB ($26.90)
UTG ($37.01)
MP ($49.22)
Hero (CO) ($28.06)

Preflop: Hero is CO with K, K
1 fold, MP bets $0.75, Hero raises to $2.25, 3 folds, MP calls $1.50

Flop: ($4.85) K, 10, J (2 players)
MP checks, Hero bets $4.25, MP calls $4.25

How many outs do you have to beat a nut straight if you brick OTT?

What size bet would be a bad gamble for you to call IP, assuming Villain's range is exactly AQ?

EDIT: If he flopped it, he flopped it. If he gets there, it's a bad beat. NOT playing for stacks when you have top set is a leak unless you have thousands of hands backing up a read that a particular Villain would only have a straight here. Even still, your odds are too good to out-draw a flopped straight to fold OTF, or to any reasonable bet OTT.

you see more monsters under the bed than any other two people i know combined.

If he has AQ and you don't fill up that's a cooler. Never folding top set. He could legitimately have TT, JJ, QQ, AK, or any good-looking pair and draw combo that you're crushing.

I'd like to know what the turn is and see his sizing before I decide if I can ever c/f it. Maybe if he overbets a 9 Q or A turn. Maybe.

Dafuq, are you on a really bad downswing Boris? Monsters under the bed tilt can be a nasty one.I don't mean that in a bad way, it's just that if you are on this kind of tilt recognising it sooner rather than later is important. I've been there.

I suffer from MUTB syndrome myself from time to time but my god if you c/f this turn I'd puke in an empty jelly jar and overnight it to your doorstep.

Originally Posted by Carroters

Dafuq, are you on a really bad downswing Boris? Monsters under the bed tilt can be a nasty one.I don't mean that in a bad way, it's just that if you are on this kind of tilt recognising it sooner rather than later is important. I've been there.

Thanks for the advice.

Downswing? I just think I run really bad generally, for a long time (well, long-ish, like 100,000 hands).

I know a downswing can go on for a long time, and I do recognise that I have a fuckton to learn and am bad at poker, so I'm not trying to make excuses for my own shortcomings, but yeah, I do believe I run bad as well.

It's why I didn't play for so long - too tilted, so I just figured it was better to step away until I could think clearly. When I was playing regularly before and getting coached by Bikes he used to tell me over and over again that I had monsters under the bed, so I guess it's not a new problem.

I dunno, I still can't see in this particular hand how he doesn't have more straights than anything else on the turn, so I don't like to just stack off then call it a cooler.

As it happened, turn bricked, he check-jammed, I called (without odds to fill up, but knowing he would also jam the undersets) and he showed me AQ.

I mean, I don't know if I'd even be capable of folding top set on a brick turn here, regardless of my range analysis in the OP, even deeper than this. I guess the fact I'm even thinking about it is a MUTB symptom given what everyone's said.

Originally Posted by TNreg

I suffer from MUTB syndrome myself from time to time but my god if you c/f this turn I'd puke in an empty jelly jar and overnight it to your doorstep.

LOL. At least I didn't c/f, I did stack off so I have spared myself a jelly jar delivery.

I think your range is a bit tight for him. He can also have KQss, QJs, JTs.

Originally Posted by BorisTheSpider

Say his calling range for the 3bet is [QQ, JJ, TT, AQs, AQo] then 57% of his range on the flop is straights.

Others have touched on this, but I'll say it more clearly (in a constructive/supportive way). This is really horrible thinking. If his calling range for the 3bet is as you say it is then you are ahead!

You need to think in terms of equity, not just in terms of how often you are ahead. When you are ahead, you are way ahead. When you are behind you are slightly behind (to the point where you would have to call a pot sized shove if he turned his cards face up).

Also, as others have said, he has shown no massive sign of strength so far. Why is the only hand he can have the nuts?

I don't think you're entirely crazy here by any means. I mean there 16 annoyingly unblocked combos of AQ as long as you're confident he flats AQo OOP to the 3-bet OOP.

The thing is though that you still have 10 outs vs those on the turn and you completely crush everything else. On a 4d turn you have 43% vs a range of sets and AQ alone so b/c the turn just can't be a mistake given you can get value from KQs QJs QQ AA??? sometimes too. If his turn betting range is any wider than AQ TT JJ then your c/f would be abso ridiculously horrible and still bad even if his range is just 16 AQ combos and 6 set combos. Again....you crush 6 combos and have some equity vs the other 16 that's what nsnures your equity is always okay here even in the worst case scenario where his range is that tight. Also, there may not even be that many AQ in his range, TT JJ are more likely hands IMO given preflop.) So yeah, there's some method to your madness but c/f still remains horrible.

Originally Posted by Pelion

Others have touched on this, but I'll say it more clearly (in a constructive/supportive way). This is really horrible thinking. If his calling range for the 3bet is as you say it is then you are ahead!

Thanks, and I hope my questions here don't come across at all as though I am questioning the validity of your advice, because I'm not, but I think if I post back with my thoughts on what you've said, hopefully it'll help me understand why I'm not thinking about this the right way. I get it - I really do, I am playing scared and thinking the wrong way because I'm tilted, so I want to understand so I can fix this.

You say that if (and it's a big if, but we'll go with it) my 3bet calling range for him is correct that I'm ahead. Yeah, marginally on the flop with about 56% equity, but if he folds QQ on the flop, then I am behind 73% of his turn range (16 combos of straights vs 6 combos of sets), and have only 23% equity when I'm behind.

You say I've got to think about not just how much of his range I'm ahead/behind, but about the equity as a whole, but if his turn range really is AQ/JJ/TT then I have only 43% equity against that range as a whole. As you said, that's enough to call a pot sized shove, but there's more than that behind, and betting the turn then puts me in a bad situation:

On the turn, we have $21.50 behind with a $13.30ish pot, so if I make even a small bet (say $7) and he shoves I have about $14 left to call into a pot of about $34. If he turned his cards face up, I couldn't do that - I'd need 29% equity, and I have 23% against a made straight.

Of course it's not actually quite as thin as that - I've got to call because he is likely also shoving his undersets.

Also, as others have said, he has shown no massive sign of strength so far. Why is the only hand he can have the nuts?

OK, so he hasn't shown a lot of strength so far, but as I said if I bet the turn I must call a shove, even if I bet small. What do I do - try and check it down? I can't try and check down top set, so I think I have to bet, even though it means I am commited to stack off.

My name is Boris, and I have monsters under the bed.

Originally Posted by griffey24

I think your range is a bit tight for him. He can also have KQss, QJs, JTs.

I don't really see regs calling that wide at my stakes, certainly not OOP, but KQs seems possible. I think that unless I have a read that he calls a lot of 3bets, I'd be more likely to see him fold QJs/JTs like 90% of the time, and the occasional agro-reg might 4bet bluff with them.

Dunno, I must be wrong about plenty of stuff ITT - I have no doubt you are better than me and I can learn a lot from you, but this (JTs/JQs in his 3bet calling range) I can't compute.

KQs doesn't make much difference on the turn though - a reg is probably not calling a brick turn with it unless there's some sort of notable history, and he's certainly not check-shoving it, so when I bet the turn I either fold out worse or get raised such that I am commited to call by a combination of better/worse (mostly better) which I don't do particularly well against.

[Half-assed reconstruction of genuinely huge post after missclick deleting it ]

As well as the general equity considerations, I also think you put him on too tight (and too pessimistic) a range. If he can have AQo, then it isn't all that unlikely that he can have KQs or AK.

I'd expect us to have at minimum 60% equity when he calls the flop with something like TT-QQ, AQ+, KQs, and even if we brick turn and river and he folds some weaker pairs/combo draws we end up with 40% equity against a range as tight as sets, straights and KQs/AK. This is pretty much worst case scenario with us winning 11 combos and losing 16 combos.

Finally, although it is a small factor, it is still important that literally every other combo he can reasonably have outside of this range is losing to you. Every time he misplays AA like this you win. Every time (or at least the vast majority of the time) he shows up with a suited broadway 2 pair or pair + SD/ pair + turned FD you win. While he won't play these hands in this way often, it is a large number of combos and every single one of them is in your favour. Remember, we only need 5 combos in his terribad missplay range before we are 50/50 on the river when we brick two streets and we don't even need 50/50 to call because there is so much dead money in the pot.

You can fold the turn vs some action if the turn is a queen or an ace.
TT/JJ/QQ/KQs/QJs/KTs/JTs/AQ/AK are all in the mix based on preflop and flop. AQ is obviously in there, but so are the others. Vs a turn overbet shove it's close and a crying call, vs anything else, well, you're betting the turn and obviously calling a shove.
Coolers happen sometimes. Tell him that when he flips TT. Tell yourself that when he flips AQ and you don't fill up.

Originally Posted by BorisTheSpider

turn bricked, he check-jammed,

what was your turn sizing?

Originally Posted by daven

what was your turn sizing?

$8.50

Originally Posted by BorisTheSpider

Thanks for the advice.

Downswing? I just think I run really bad generally, for a long time (well, long-ish, like 100,000 hands).

No offensive but have you thought that maybe you're just not playing well enough to beat the games?

Originally Posted by Pascal

No offensive but have you thought that maybe you're just not playing well enough to beat the games?

Yeah, I have no doubt that's a distinct possibility. I really don't think I'm that terrible though, and I feel sure at least a sizeable part of it is runbad.

Originally Posted by BorisTheSpider

Yeah, I have no doubt that's a distinct possibility. I really don't think I'm that terrible though, and I feel sure at least a sizeable part of it is runbad.

Maybe this is out of line but it isn't intend to be. You don't seem to be that good. 25nl zoom the standard is for the most part fairly good. From what I've seen the people who are beating 25nl zoom tend to have fixed a lot of the stuff you are doing wrong in their games and are now fairly confident with it.

That's not to say beating 25nl zoom is some impossible task, but just drop down to 10nl and fix these problems there and then move back up when you're beating 10nl.

Originally Posted by ImSavy

Maybe this is out of line but it isn't intend to be. You don't seem to be that good. 25nl zoom the standard is for the most part fairly good. From what I've seen the people who are beating 25nl zoom tend to have fixed a lot of the stuff you are doing wrong in their games and are now fairly confident with it.

That's not to say beating 25nl zoom is some impossible task, but just drop down to 10nl and fix these problems there and then move back up when you're beating 10nl.

I don't think you're out of line at all - I'm always happy to hear opinions politely put, and you may well be right.

Please can you be more specific, given what you've seen me post, about what problems you think I have and what you think I should work on first?

I've never played as high as 25nl so take this advice with a grain of salt.

I think one of the most important things you can work on when moving up is 3/4/5betting. It's something that happens more and more and you need to have a standard plan in place to deal with it and exploit people doing it. There's loads of stuff about on this so just have a look through it and do some serious studying and looking at related hands.

I also think you need to be questioning yourself more and justifying your decisions better. Obviously this is something that takes time and your thought process improves as you study more because you gain a better "poker brain". I also think you need to be more aware of your own range in some situations this ties into the above though, or should do.

I've played a lot of 10 NL, some 25 NL, and now I'm starting back at 5 NL. Before Black Friday I was a rakeback breakeven winner on Full Tilt. This whole 'Are you beating microstakes?' question is very interesting. If it helps anyone, I recently read Crushing Microstakes by Nathan Williams. He's like the biggest 5 NL winner in PokerStars history, up about 40k or something ridiculous. His book is a really good description of ABC poker, not nit poker, just standard play, written for us (as of yet) non-handreaders. It really helped me. I had a lot of serious misconceptions about what ABC poker is. All I know is his strategy is not super exciting but it definitely wins. I still need to work on making some of the tougher late street folds but I'm getting there. IMO many micro tags think they are playing ABC when they're really not, bluffing more than they should, and not value betting as hard as they should.

There's definitely a lot of dick measuring going on at the micros esp among the 'regs', and it is super expensive. It's not just about bluffing too much or not value betting enough, whenever you feel like 'this ahole is messing with me' or 'i can't let them run over me', that's a sure sign of bad play at the micros where everyone is on level zero virtually all the time.

Recently I've been thinking of poker as commentary not competition. We have no control over the outcome at all period. No matter what we do, we can't force a win or force a fold. So that's not really a competition imo. What we are doing is commenting on a game where we see only a small part of what's going on and the result is decided entirely by chance, by blind idiots if you will. That means that the real winner is the best commentator who understands best what the hell is going on, making the most appropriate betting decisions etc.

Thinking of it that way has helped me to fold a lot easier and pick better spots instead of wanting to 'fight' the people bullying me which is my normal reaction and very bad poker.

Sorry if that's off topic. You got me going.