bluffing vs sqz otr

ott i was counting combo's: 12 AK , 3 AA, 3QQ , 6KK and 6JJ

once he called i assumed he still had AK in his range maybe even AJ ( as a bluff pre).

Even if i rule out AJ it's 12 AK combo's vs 18 ' value' combo's. so a ratio of 2:3 figuring if I bluff it needs to work less than that.

thoughts?

ty for your time and help


PokerStars - $0.10 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hero (BTN): 101.1 BB
SB: 151.2 BB (VPIP: 28.57, PFR: 28.57, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 23)
BB: 214.4 BB (VPIP: 29.41, PFR: 17.65, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 17)
UTG: 137.5 BB (VPIP: 27.27, PFR: 27.27, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 11)
MP: 161.6 BB (VPIP: 17.25, PFR: 12.94, 3Bet Preflop: 5.00, Hands: 261)
CO: 100 BB (VPIP: 16.13, PFR: 16.13, 3Bet Preflop: 14.29, Hands: 32)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has Q A

fold, MP raises to 3 BB, fold, Hero calls 3 BB, fold, BB raises to 12 BB, fold, Hero calls 9 BB

Flop: (27.5 BB, 2 players) T 9 3
BB bets 13 BB, Hero calls 13 BB

Turn: (53.5 BB, 2 players) T
BB checks, Hero bets 25.5 BB, BB calls 25.5 BB

River: (104.5 BB, 2 players) 3
BB checks, Hero ??

I don't like the 2nd call PRE.
As played, I'd probably fold OTF (I'm guessing you have 6 outs at most).
As played, I'd proably check behind OTR, expecting any bet looks like a bluff.
C'mon... Villain didn't buy that you repped a T OTT, so you want him to buy that you had a 3 OTR?

I think you need reads to justify ANY bluff.
You have 17 hands on this guy.
Stop with the FPS.

We'll cover the math in another post.
It's really not worth it in this spot.

You can't be folding AQ to a bb squeeze, especially on the button. Call pre and call flop.

I'm playing this the same, now I'm checking back river because villain is either calling with showdown value, or he called a flush draw or JQ on turn and is folding.

I'd bet the turn with a little more conviction, come to think of it. This is less than half pot. Bet more than half pot, otherwise it looks like a bluff.

What are you repping with a bet OTR ?

You're stats on him aren't wild enough to tell you anything but that he isn't a total fish/nit.

[P] You set him up to squeeze you and he did. I'm leaning towards 3Betting AQ to avoid these spots.
I think at this point he either has a very tight range or a rather loose one. I see ATs and TT as both very possible and even KT could be there.

[F] I think folding the flop is close to optimal and definitely safe: there are much better spots to be found!
..then again if you fold here did you really want to call [P]? I think that's ok as many villains feel uncomfortable CBetting this and you have decent equity if you did connect.
It's a fairly small bet but is that weakness or him looking for a call?

[T] Bet size is definitely bad... and what are you representing? TT 99 33 or maybe a flush draw look like about your only options unless you call squeezes with AT. I suppose JJ and QQ are possible too

[R] Flush missed. TT and 33 are only one combo each now. I'm with Onga:

...now I'm checking back river because villain is either calling with showdown value, or he called a flush draw or JQ on turn and is folding.

I have seen some remarkably bad calls and he might take you on with AJ but that's definitely not something to rely on.