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Bluff catch big river bet?

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  1. #1

    Default Bluff catch big river bet?

    OK first of all this is obviously not 10/20. This is Bovada 25 nl where I recreated the hand using the very cool Deuces Cracked live hand history generator which does not accept decimal places. So for example $2500 is really $25.00.

    I don't really have a read on the button. There's no stats on him of course since it's Bovada but my general read is that the whole table is fishy.

    I bet half pot on the flop thinking I'm often best and will often take it down. I barrel half pot on the turn when the scare card comes. The button calls both bets.

    I don't think button has an ace here. I think he might raise an ace trying to charge me for a flush draw. So now I think button has a draw and I check the river fully intending to check/call a non-spade and bluff catch. But then he pots it and now I'm not so sure. Should I follow through on the plan and call the river bet?

    Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $20.00 BB (6 handed) - Full Tilt Converter Tool from http://www.flopturnriver.com

    BB ($2,500)
    UTG ($4,075)
    MP ($2,587)
    CO ($3,696)
    Button ($1,872)
    Hero (SB) ($4,173)

    Preflop: Hero is SB with 6, 6
    UTG raises to $75, 1 fold, CO calls $75, Button calls $75, Hero calls $65, 1 fold

    Flop: ($320) 7, 2, 4 (4 players)
    Hero bets $162, 2 folds, Button calls $162

    Turn: ($644) A (2 players)
    Hero bets $324, Button calls $324

    River: ($1,292) K (2 players)
    Hero checks, Button bets $1,297, Hero ???
  2. #2
    BTW when I say fishy I mean bad not necessarily loose-passive. Sorry I don't have a better read.
  3. #3
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    pre is fine. i'd C/F every street as played. this is not a hand to bluff with.

    edit: if i did bet the flop, i can see maybe betting the turn as pretty-near a pure bluff. but i'd rather just c/f each street and not assume we can make an unknown player fold when we have no equity
    Last edited by rpm; 11-03-2013 at 12:18 AM.
  4. #4
    I have no idea what you're doing post flop. Your flop bet just allows anything you beat to fold, except of course flush draws. But we have to assume flush draws are nearly always two overcards to our shitty pair, so even when he's flushing we're oop next street probably facing another overcard. Turn is an ace and rams into his Ax flush draws. River is a king and hits his Kx flush draws that didn't hit the ace. This is a disasterous runout yet we bet turn and are considering check-calling river? Just c/f every street.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  5. #5
    I don't mind the flop bet. I think we probably have the best hand right now and we want to protect that. Once we get called, I want to check to showdown. Any action, I'm folding.
    Currently grinding live cash games. Life is good.
  6. #6
    I don't mind the flop bet. I think we probably have the best hand right now and we want to protect that.
    Protect against what? A flush draw? Most flush draws are not all that far behind us. Overcards? We don't get any value from overcards all that often. All I can see us getting any real value from is Ax gutshots.

    Betting is bad imo because we're forced to shut down when called. That being the case, there is no value except when someone calls crap and then kindly checks it down for us. How often is that gonna happen? Our hand is junk and we should c/f. If we were HU and IP, then our hand is a lot better.

    I will add I think flop is the least badly played street post flop. Turn is an easy c/f and river should be too.
    Last edited by OngBonga; 11-03-2013 at 11:00 AM.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  7. #7
    Quote Originally Posted by OngBonga View Post
    Protect against what? A flush draw? Most flush draws are not all that far behind us. Overcards? We don't get any value from overcards all that often. All I can see us getting any real value from is Ax gutshots.

    Betting is bad imo because we're forced to shut down when called. That being the case, there is no value except when someone calls crap and then kindly checks it down for us. How often is that gonna happen? Our hand is junk and we should c/f. If we were HU and IP, then our hand is a lot better.
    Wow, completely misread the hand, didn't realize we were 4 way. My bad, c/f.
    Currently grinding live cash games. Life is good.
  8. #8
    call/call/pot doesn't look suspicious?
  9. #9
    Anything can look suspicious if you want it to.

    Our hand is no better than AK at flop. In fact it's worse. AK wins unimproved at showdown nearly as often as 66, except AK improves a lot more often. You'll be much better served bluff catching with AK than 66 imo.
    Last edited by OngBonga; 11-03-2013 at 01:21 PM.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  10. #10
    You have to tell a consistent story.

    Your story leading into 3 players is that you're strong on the flop. Your weak sizing on a generally vulnerable board does not tell the same story.

    If you want to do this, I would ram it hard on the flop. Betting 4-way, half pot with only pocket sixes OOP seems like a recipe for disaster on the turn/river.
    Quote Originally Posted by Jay-Z
    I'm a couple hands down and I'm tryin' to get back
    I gave the other grip, I lost a flip for five stacks

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