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AQ tptk in 3b pot

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  1. #1
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    Default AQ tptk in 3b pot

    opener is 31-14 action player breakeven somehow. 7% fold to 3b over 29 occasions. Passive with station tendencies postflop
    mp is unknown seems bad 33-11 small sample. Folds easily postflop so far.
    what's my plan?

    Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (7 handed) - Full Tilt Converter Tool from http://www.flopturnriver.com

    MP1 ($25.82)
    MP2 ($30.85)
    CO ($17.98)
    Hero (Button) ($29.35)
    SB ($47.84)
    BB ($22)
    UTG ($13.08)

    Preflop: Hero is Button with A, Q
    1 fold, MP1 bets $0.75, MP2 calls $0.75, 1 fold, Hero raises to $2.60, 2 folds, MP1 calls $1.85, MP2 calls $1.85

    Flop: ($8.15) J, 9, Q (3 players)
    MP1 bets $2.75, MP2 calls $2.75,
  2. #2
    rong's Avatar
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    I'm sure its wrong but I kinda wanna fold.
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  3. #3
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    Quote Originally Posted by rong View Post
    I'm sure its wrong but I kinda wanna fold.
    i folded, and felt dirty
  4. #4
    I'd definitely call. Pot odds are excellent and there are some worse hands they can do it with. Also, 3-betting AQ pre for value, hitting TPTK and folding to a single small bet does not quite compute.
  5. #5
    Pot odds are crazy, definitely calling. Which player are you scared of? The one that made a weak-ass donk bet, or the one that called the weak-ass donk bet?

    I'm sure we see some JJ/99 here sometimes. If they have 99, they also have TT which won't be folding. Some QJs as well. But if they have QJs they probably also have JT/KJ/KQ, all of which also won't be folding this flop.
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  6. #6
    rong's Avatar
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    How much equity do we have vs all made straight, sets, 2p, 1p + oesd, AK, AQ, KQ, KJ, AT? Giving that range to both and assuming suited only.
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  7. #7
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    Quote Originally Posted by rong View Post
    How much equity do we have vs all made straight, sets, 2p, 1p + oesd, AK, AQ, KQ, KJ, AT? Giving that range to both and assuming suited only.
    Too early to do the math but I think we have more than we need.
    “Right thoughts produce right actions and right actions produce work which will be a material reflection for others to see of the serenity at the center of it all”

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  8. #8
    pocketfours's Avatar
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    Make it $11 to go.

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  9. #9
    supa's Avatar
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    Although there aren't many turn cards that help us. Even a Q puts us in a weird spot.
    “Right thoughts produce right actions and right actions produce work which will be a material reflection for others to see of the serenity at the center of it all”

    Put hero on a goddamn range part II- The 6max years

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  10. #10
    Villain has to be pretty terrible to lead this size with any hand that beats us. That doesn't mean he never has us beat, but it really looks like it's a blocking bet and there are hands in his range that would want to block here. The 33/11 calling obviously shouldn't concern us. So we don't feel great against two opponents on a board like this and our hand has little chance of improving, but we have position, skill and hand advantage against each player.

    I would r/f for value. Anything less than 12 leaves enough behind to be able to fold without a second though.

    When it gets interesting is if you raise, both villain's flat and it checks to you on the turn.
  11. #11
    Post-Grunch:

    Darn, I guess we're not seeing a turn.

    This is kind of a textbook terrible spot to peel because of pot odds. We're 4 villain betting opportunities away from a showdown, and we have a vulnerable hand that has very little room for improvement with close to 100bb effective left behind after we call. We are facing a couple of passive opponents, which is a notable relief, but you're gonna bleed a ton of chips if you make a lot of "fuck it" calls for 11bbs in these type of situations.

    That said, I think we should continue and the bet size is a big factor in that, but there's some dangerous reasoning in here.
  12. #12
    Daven , do you have a lot of history vs opener?

    Have you seen him make this kind of impish donk before?

    Its almost like we're being squeezed here. Feels awkward anyhow
    "We're all just a million little gods causing rainstorms, turning every good thing to rust...."AF
  13. #13

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  14. #14
    curious to know how you came up with villain being a breakeven player

    is PTR or some equivalent site up now for tracking cash games?
  15. #15
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    Quote Originally Posted by Micro2Macro View Post
    curious to know how you came up with villain being a breakeven player

    is PTR or some equivalent site up now for tracking cash games?
    breakeven over my sample, always around, been around for a long time = my guess is he's breakeven-ish
    no ptr up that i know of, about a year ago i heard rumours of a russian site that simply presented the old ptr data, but not updated. Didn't go looking for it.
  16. #16
    Quote Originally Posted by Micro2Macro View Post
    curious to know how you came up with villain being a breakeven player

    is PTR or some equivalent site up now for tracking cash games?
    Hey M2m yeah ptr deaf works. Just doesn't work for PS clients and prob Ft players. But log on if yA like and search weldphaser on cake. It accurate too..
    "We're all just a million little gods causing rainstorms, turning every good thing to rust...."AF

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