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Originally Posted by matiusaa
Hi, villian was thought to be a recreational player because he limps in early position and due to his stack size, he was also playing on 1 table, no multitabling, so I suggested he was recreational.
Originally Posted by matiusaa
I pushed because I thought he might call with straight draws or flush draw or even with a king, what do you think?
I think these are good reasons, but not the whole story. He'll also call with sets and 2 pair KJo, and if he's not blind, with QT, and since he's at least a bit fishy, probably all his flush draws (although I don't think he'd be raising all his FD). He may also call with gutshots like ATo or Q9s, but again, is less likely to raise your C-bet OTF.
It's likely that you're +EV with this shove, and we can start thinking about the math once we assign Villain a range. We will expect to be wrong from time to time. That's understating it. We expect to be wrong quite a lot at first. However, we will have the tenacity to learn from our errors and take the baby steps needed.
PRE: Sizing is fine. Obv. this is a rare case where you know you have the nuts, and (certainly at the micros) you want to be raising the top of your range.
OTF: C-bet is fine. It's a wet board that is likely to smack both of your ranges, and Villain needs at least 2-pair to be ahead. Checking and risking giving a free card on such a draw-heavy board is almost always a mistake... YOU don't need a free card.
When Villain raises, your forehead should wrinkle a bit.
This... means... something.
Now, we have his range as wide PRE... perhaps 50% wide... maybe all suited cards wide... we don't know for sure.
He didn't raise us PRE, but he's a bit fishy, so this doesn't necessarily cap his range. You are holding blockers to all AX hands, though, which is strong, but you are NOT holding the A, which kind of sucks for this flop. If you had the A, then you can at least sometimes get weak flushes to fold to continued aggression.
The choice to shove against a fishy player is often correct, but you need to consider what hands are calling you and what hands are folding. Then you have to consider what is your equity against the hands that call you. It's really much easier than it sounds, but we need a range for this.
I will do all the math if you give me a guess as to these ranges.
What is Villain calling with PRE?
What is he raising with OTF?
What will he call you with if he doesn't fold?
(The first one is less important other than to set up that he had to NOT fold a hand PRE in order to raise it OTF.)
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