5NL - TT vs Paired Overcard Flop

Poker Stars, $0.02/$0.05 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

BB: $7.08 (141.6 bb)
UTG: $5.42 (108.4 bb)
MP: $12.94 (258.8 bb)
Hero (CO): $5.12 (102.4 bb)
BTN: $4.75 (95 bb)
SB: $18.01 (360.2 bb)

Preflop: Hero is CO with T T
UTG folds, MP raises to $0.15, Hero calls $0.15, 3 folds

Flop: ($0.37) Q Q 6 (2 players)
MP bets $0.25, Hero calls $0.25

Turn: ($0.87) 7 (2 players)
MP bets $0.55, Hero calls $0.55

River: ($1.97) 4 (2 players)
MP checks, Hero checks

Villain is 29/14 after 7 hands, cbet 1/1

Fold turn?

The idea was that he has enough junk in his range that he's going to cbet with (population read) that calling TT is good on the flop. When he barrels it puts me in a bit of an awkward spot obviously, but it's a very good card to barrel as it helps none of my floating range otf, so he could be trying to get me to fold out PP's, any 6x I may have in my range, any AK type hands.

If he fires the river I think I am definitely beat and can fold. I don't see many villains betting here without AA, KK, Qx or some SC he backdoored a flush with.

I don't think I play this any different tbh. Don't know if that's good or bad though

Villain is unknown after 7 hands, stats irrelevant.


Seems a fairly straight forward hand to me.

I play this exactly the same. I don't wanna call for 3 streets though. It's difficult without reads but the fact that he has a big stack can make people a tad more aggressive sometimes which would make me feel fine with calling two barrels on that run out.

As above, I imagine you lost to like an overpair or some shit. I would fold most of tte time to a 3rd barrel

Originally Posted by Cobra_1878

Villain is unknown after 7 hands, stats irrelevant.


Seems a fairly straight forward hand to me.

Stats mean what they mean, that's why they come with a sample size. Saying villain is unknown is wrong. He is unlikely to be one of those people running at 80/20 and he's slightly less likely to be a 10/8 type.

Originally Posted by kickass

As above, I imagine you lost to like an overpair or some shit. I would fold most of tte time to a 3rd barrel

Results irrelevant, but you're wrong.

Yeah I think thats played fine, would we ever raise the flop as we probably have the best hand and if he calls we are in position on the turn, and he re-raises us then we throw it away?

Originally Posted by tripaces

Yeah I think thats played fine, would we ever raise the flop as we probably have the best hand and if he calls we are in position on the turn, and he re-raises us then we throw it away?

raising is turning our hand into a bluff, at best we fold out like JJ and if he spaz shoves anything we have to fold. So raising is pretty bad on the flop, unless he is folding such a huge amount it's profitable, but even then TT isn't the hand to do it with. Or I suppose we could raise for value if villain is calling a stupidly wide amount, but try to come up with a range of hands that calls that we are ahead of and it won't be realistic.

77-99, A7, AK, 67 possibly. Just thinking raise to because there are a lot of scare cards on the turn.

Originally Posted by tripaces

77-99, A7, AK, 67 possibly. Just thinking raise to because there are a lot of scare cards on the turn.

Why would he be calling a raise with A7 or 67 on the flop? Also why are hands like 77-99 in his calling a raise range, but hands like TT-AA aren't?

Cards we don't like on the turn, A & K. Arguably a 9 and 8 aren't great cards either, but we don't hate them. We can also fold to them some % of the time, we can't be scared of future cards and as a result overplay our hand.

Haha meant A6, and those hands are as well, just i think his range for calling a raise might be wider than just hands that are beating us. And he will probably check the turn to us and we can see a free river or bet. Might be over-estimating ranges though!

Originally Posted by ImSavy

Stats mean what they mean, that's why they come with a sample size. Saying villain is unknown is wrong. He is unlikely to be one of those people running at 80/20 and he's slightly less likely to be a 10/8 type.

7 hands tells you next to nothing, 29/14 means next to nothing with that sample size. The 1/1 cbet is even worse, when you have 7 hands on villain treat him as unknown.

Originally Posted by Cobra_1878

7 hands tells you next to nothing, 29/14 means next to nothing with that sample size. The 1/1 cbet is even worse, when you have 7 hands on villain treat him as unknown.

Cobra I'm not being funny but I know miles more about stats than you. You seem to think that I think he's opening exactly 14% and cbetting 100%, which isn't the case at all.

7 hands don't mean shit, but you can extrapolate all day long if you wish.

I like the way you played the hand.

Originally Posted by ImSavy

Cobra I'm not being funny but I know miles more about stats than you. You seem to think that I think he's opening exactly 14% and cbetting 100%, which isn't the case at all.

You do seem to be implying that you can use those stats as reliable information though, which you can't. Therefore, don't use them.

Originally Posted by Cobra_1878

You do seem to be implying that you can use those stats as reliable information though, which you can't. Therefore, don't use them.

The stats do mean something, just you don't understand stats so you don't understand what they mean. That's the problem.

It's especially funny that when I say a sample size is irrelevant, I get questioned about it and when I do post stats, with sample size, I get told they are irrelevant by people who don't even know what they're talking about.

Your actual holding is irrelevant in this spot imo and I flat flop and raise turn with an exploitably large part of my range (including complete air). There's a lot of Qx in my perceived range and villain is going to find it difficult to continue with most of his 2 barrelling range that isn't Qx. I'm also going to want to be raising the turn with my nut hands for value, so I'm okay with the table seeing I can turn any shite into a bluff in this spot if I need to give up river.

We can use 7 hands as a decent barometer of villain's style of play too - 29/14 and decent cbet sizing on a paired flop implies villain isn't a fish and probably competent until he proves otherwise.

Originally Posted by The Bean Counter

Your actual holding is irrelevant in this spot imo and I flat flop and raise turn with an exploitably large part of my range (including complete air). There's a lot of Qx in my perceived range and villain is going to find it difficult to continue with most of his 2 barrelling range that isn't Qx. I'm also going to want to be raising the turn with my nut hands for value, so I'm okay with the table seeing I can turn any shite into a bluff in this spot if I need to give up river.

I'm aware that this will cap our range (which isn't something to worry about at this level really), but would you not have a calling range on the turn at all then? I think a hand like TT is better to be calling with, and raising our air and nut hands. Saying this though I probably don't call the flop as wide as you are implying you are, which is something for me to have a think about.

We have so much Q× in our range here I think its unlikely villain is betting something for value that we beat so we are bluff catching. I dont hate folding this turn and think it might be best, but I prolly play ite the same.

Originally Posted by ImSavy

The stats do mean something, just you don't understand stats so you don't understand what they mean. That's the problem.

It's especially funny that when I say a sample size is irrelevant, I get questioned about it and when I do post stats, with sample size, I get told they are irrelevant by people who don't even know what they're talking about.

What the hell is an irrelevant sample size if 7 hands isn't?

Originally Posted by Cobra_1878

7 hands tells you next to nothing, 29/14 means next to nothing with that sample size. The 1/1 cbet is even worse, when you have 7 hands on villain treat him as unknown.

The c-bet doesn't say anything but the fact he hasn't limped any hands (I imagine at 29/14) shows he isn't a massive passive whale, so it narrows the spectrum slightly but only slightly.

Originally Posted by Cobra_1878

What the hell is an irrelevant sample size if 7 hands isn't?

If you look at the last post I made saying there was an irrelevant sample size it came with assumptions we can make based off the sample size, iirc it was like 12 hands.

BTN is like 8/0 after some really insignificant amount of hands. We'll just assume that's he's like level 0 thinking weak tight passive type player

Note 8/0 after 12 hands is very different to 8/0 after 1000 hands. But we still get information from it.

Even before the first hand is played we are gathering information, 7 hands isn't a sample that gives us any deep statistical reads (like I've said multiple times) but it does tell us things.

Originally Posted by ImSavy

If you look at the last post I made saying there was an irrelevant sample size it came with assumptions we can make based off the sample size, iirc it was like 12 hands.



Note 8/0 after 12 hands is very different to 8/0 after 1000 hands. But we still get information from it.

Even before the first hand is played we are gathering information, 7 hands isn't a sample that gives us any deep statistical reads (like I've said multiple times) but it does tell us things.

I'm not saying it doesn't tell us something.

What I was saying is it's not reliable information, i.e. it shouldn't change the way we play a hand; we wouldn't automatically check a really strong hand for example because we expect villain to cbet.

Treat villain as competent until shown otherwise, i.e. an unknown. That's all I was saying.

If the villain was 100/0 over 6 hands would you play the hand differently?

Originally Posted by Pascal

If the villain was 100/0 over 6 hands would you play the hand differently?

Probably not, but I'd dislike doing it more.

Sorry that was aimed at Cobra. Point I'm trying to make is that if there's ANY stats where we would play the hand differently then the sample is not irrelevant, even if it's not relevant in the slightest

Originally Posted by Pascal

If the villain was 100/0 over 6 hands would you play the hand differently?

Maybe, but that's an extreme example. I wouldn't play a 38/24 and a 18/8 differently after 7 hands.

I'd be questioning my database if someone was 38/24 or 18/8 after 7 hands.

lolol maths banter

@ Cobra:

You yourself know that you're not the best at math, so why are you arguing here?

@ Savy:

wp

+1 for the "reads after 7 hands camp".

A 29/14 after 7 hands I'm treating like a competent reg until proven otherwise.

A 0/0 after 7 hands I'm treating like a competent reg until proven otherwise.

A 100/0 after 7 hands I'm treating like a loose/passive until proven otherwise.

A 30/0 who I've seen open limp preflop ONCE after 7 hands, I'm treating like a loose/passive fish until proven otherwise (sometimes these guys end up being spazzy-aggrofish).

etc. etc. etc.

These aren't reads that are set in stone and I can easily change my mind about it later, but stats/reads after a tiny number of hands are better than no information at all. I'm not going to start stacking off with A-high because someone has weird stats after 7 hands, but that doesn't mean it isn't one more useful piece of the puzzle.

Fwiw, If I don't have at least one guy marked purple (my loose passive fish colour) after one orbit, I start thinking I'm at the wrong table.

looks fine, you could bet river like 45cents or something but it's probably too thin

Originally Posted by daven

looks fine, you could bet river like 45cents or something but it's probably too thin

I also feel this gives villain a chance to spaz out which is horrible for myself in this spot.

Originally Posted by ImSavy

I also feel this gives villain a chance to spaz out which is horrible for myself in this spot.

then check it back, nh
always worth thinking about a small river bet for value in spots like these, and always fine not to do it if you think it's inappropriate