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3b AKo vs steal, flop nut flush draw, turn play?

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  1. #1
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    Default 3b AKo vs steal, flop nut flush draw, turn play?

    villain is 25-22-7 over 200 hands, fold to 3b 67%, 4b 11%, steal 45% bu steal 60%
    thoughts on a 3b-cb range with this sizing? turn?

    No Limit Holdem
    4 Players

    Stacks:
    CO 112bb
    BTN 165bb
    daven (SB) 112bb
    BB 159bb

    Pre-Flop: , 4 players) daven is SB
    1 fold, BTN raises to 3bb, daven raises to 10bb, 1 fold, BTN calls

    Flop: (22bb, 2 players)
    daven bets 13bb, BTN calls

    Turn: (47bb, 2 players)
    ??
  2. #2
    MadMojoMonkey's Avatar
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    25-22-7 is..? VPIP/PFR/3-bet?
    Are these 200 hands all from 4-handed play in this position? (I assume not, so
    How would you guess Villain's stats in the current position, and table dynamic?

    What's the recent history between you/Villain?

    What is Villain's range to call your 3-bet in this spot?

    ***
    As it looks:
    PRE is ridic standard. Flop C-bet is standard with NFD/2 overs.
    Sizing everywhere looks standard, assuming a lot of meta stuff isn't going on.

    OTT: I would like to take a free card, if possible. If Villain is likely to bet out, given a check... how much? Can we short him a few BB and get him to call/not raise?

    EDIT: To clarify: If Hero checks, and doing so incites Villain to stab at ~25BB, then I'd prefer to lead at ~22 BB, or as low as I think he'll call w/o being too suspicious as to re-raise and force me to fold.
    Last edited by MadMojoMonkey; 12-08-2014 at 12:56 PM.
  3. #3
    preflop standard, flop standard but turn is ugggllaaaaayyyyy...lol

    reason is his flatting range is probably 99-22, suited broadways, a few suited connectors, when he doesn't raise flop I think him holding a set is unlikely but not impossible. he could have something like 99, maybe even TT or JJ here with a heart, he could also have the naked Khxx, we have 89 BBs left I think betting 22-24 BBs will fold out some of his mid pair, weak FD type hands, so bet and if he jams were getting just over 2to1 to call..meh idk calling a jam would depend on the dynamic I have with villain at that time and how hes been running. if he flats im shoving every heart,six,three,queen,ace or king.. which makes....9 hearts, 2 sixes, 3 threes, 3 queens, 3 aces, 3 kings. which is 22/46 (47%).
    we will be shoving 67BBs into a pot of 91BBs. villain will have 2.35 to 1 pot odds.

    what do you think his continuing range is OTT?
    "The harder you work, the luckier you get." ~ courtesy of my fortune cookie from china king

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  4. #4
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    fwiw i was debating 18-fold vs check-decide, tending towards the former

    Quote Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey View Post
    25-22-7 is..? VPIP/PFR/3-bet?
    yep
    Quote Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey View Post
    Are these 200 hands all from 4-handed play in this position? (I assume not, so
    How would you guess Villain's stats in the current position, and table dynamic?
    stats are across several tables we're both at, this table has just started to break. I suspect there's a good chance he hasn't noticed table is breaking yet.
    Quote Originally Posted by acg123 View Post
    preflop standard, flop standard but turn is ugggllaaaaayyyyy...lol
    i don't think turn is ugly, villain only very rarely holds a six...

    Quote Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey View Post
    What is Villain's range to call your 3-bet in this spot?
    Quote Originally Posted by acg123 View Post
    reason is his flatting range is probably 99-22, suited broadways, a few suited connectors, when he doesn't raise flop I think him holding a set is unlikely but not impossible. he could have something like 99, maybe even TT or JJ here with a heart, he could also have the naked Khxxp
    sounds reasonable except i don't think he's likely to be terrible enough to hold 22-66 here.
  5. #5
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    thinking about it a bit more and i can't imagine him folding much of his flop calling range to a turn barrel...
  6. #6
    So how many combos do fold when you bet turn and is it enough? Does a river jam follow up on non-hearts fold most of the remainder out?

    I've been mulling over whether I have a check jam range in this kind of spot recently (and why) - are people check jamming anything here?
  7. #7
    MadMojoMonkey's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by daven View Post
    stats are across several tables we're both at, this table has just started to break. I suspect there's a good chance he hasn't noticed table is breaking yet.
    So BTN steal @ 60%, FT3 67%, 4-bet 11% is his range, then. (FWIW, I missed that we're in his BTN steal % for my post above.)

    So 60% looks something like this @798 combos
    { 22+,A2s+,K2s+,Q2s+,J2s+,T7s+,96s+,85s+,75s+,64s+,5 3s+, A2o+,K2o+,Q7o+,J7o+,T7o+,97o+,87o,76o,65o,54o }

    Removing the FT3 range looks something like this @ 266 combos
    { 66+,A2s+,KTs+,QTs+,J9s+,T9s,98s,87s,76s,ATo+,KTo+, QTo+,JTo }

    Removing the top 11% from the original 798 make it this @ 180 combos
    { 77-66,A9s-A2s,KJs-KTs,QTs+,J9s+,T9s,98s,87s,76s,AJo-ATo,KTo+,QTo+,JTo }

    Assuming he has a polarized 4-bet range @ 180 combos
    { JJ-88,AJs-A6s,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,AQo-ATo,KTo+,QTo+,JTo }

    It looks like you're close to 60/40 here.

    A) What do you think of the ranges I posted? Where would you change them?

    ***
    It's tough w/o guessing what he's gonna do against different bet sizes, but that's where we are here.

    B) What is the range of bet sizes that he thinks are "too small"? Where does that become "standard" to him? Where is it "too much"?
    How will his card range to continue be affected by your various bet-size options?

    Then we EV calc. a buncha buncha times and find the sweet spot.

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