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2NL River Call/Fold?

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  1. #1
    settecba's Avatar
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    Default 2NL River Call/Fold?

    Villain is LAG Fish 35/16/5.9 over 43 hands. WTSD 27% and W$SD 33%. He has donked 3/5 times before. Unfortunately I did not see what he had those times.

    I was in call down mode(I had seen him fold to a raise, he´s that kind of LAG fish), and the board went pretty well considering how wet the flop was.

    His river bet left 0.03 behind. Somehow I thought this was 2pair+. Is it really? Do you think I have the 27% equity needed?

    Poker Stars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.02 BB (9 handed) - Poker Stars Converter Tool from http://poker-tools.flopturnriver.com/Hand-Converter.php

    Button ($1.08)
    SB ($1.19)
    BB ($2)
    UTG ($1.89)
    Hero (UTG+1) ($2)
    MP1 ($2.03)
    MP2 ($1.27)
    MP3 ($1.43)
    CO ($2.71)

    Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with A, K
    UTG calls $0.02, Hero raises $0.10, 5 folds, SB calls $0.09, 1 fold, UTG calls $0.08

    Flop: ($0.32) 9, Q, K (3 players)
    SB bets $0.16, 1 fold, Hero calls $0.16

    Turn: ($0.64) 5 (2 players)
    SB bets $0.30, Hero calls $0.30

    River: ($1.24) 8 (2 players)
    SB bets $0.60, ?????

    Total pot: $1.24
    Last edited by settecba; 02-07-2017 at 09:42 PM.
    Quote Originally Posted by ISF
    Getting good at poker is like that scene in the matrix where Neo suddenly sees that everyone is just a bunch of structured numbers and then he starts bending those numbers in really weird ways.
  2. #2
    I'm certainly not folding this.

    How are you getting 27%? I figure we need a little over 33%. Let's forget rake, and round the pot down to $1.80... we call three times, win once and lose twice (that's 33% equity)... it cost us $1.80 to make the three calls, and we win $1.80... so break even is 33%.

    The "little over" accounts for rake and the rounding down.

    Even still, I think we're gonna have over 33%, assuming he can bluff missed spades. He has KJ KT at least, possibly QJ QT, spades, and of course KQ K9 JT 99 etc... I'm not gonna waste too much time here at the table and just assume tptk with AK in a raised pot is always good enough to call down with vs a LAG.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  3. #3
    Ong if you face a pot sized bet you need 33% equity, come on dude. A half pot sized bet needs 25% equity to call. This is less than a half pot sized bet so we need less than 25% (we need 24.6% to be more precise). This is all assuming no rake.

    The best exercise here is put villain on a range for each street. Starting with what he calls preflop with then narrowing it every street based on his action. Then based on the range you give him by the river you can count combos and see how often you win.
  4. #4
    Calling river.

    It's folding in spots like this that probably result in you winning 61% of your showdowns
    Quote Originally Posted by Jay-Z
    I'm a couple hands down and I'm tryin' to get back
    I gave the other grip, I lost a flip for five stacks
  5. #5
    Quote Originally Posted by griffey24 View Post
    Calling river.

    It's folding in spots like this that probably result in you winning 61% of your showdowns
    98% he called and was against KQ, 99% he called and was against KQ or set.

    You're forgetting it's 2nl dude.
  6. #6
    Quote Originally Posted by ImSavy View Post
    98% he called and was against KQ, 99% he called and was against KQ or set.

    You're forgetting it's 2nl dude.
    If vill close to pots I think i can find a fold cause I think that weights his range to JT/999/KQ stuff more.

    If he's coming in for less than half i wouldn't even be surprised to see KJ/KT here.
    Quote Originally Posted by Jay-Z
    I'm a couple hands down and I'm tryin' to get back
    I gave the other grip, I lost a flip for five stacks
  7. #7
    Quote Originally Posted by griffey24 View Post
    If vill close to pots I think i can find a fold cause I think that weights his range to JT/999/KQ stuff more.

    If he's coming in for less than half i wouldn't even be surprised to see KJ/KT here.
    Yes but all in is 3c more, it's 2nl & hero is posting hand. I'm making data available to me that hero isn't in this hand. I think this is a call (I think do my exercise >>>>>>>>>) but yeah.

    I also wouldn't be amazed to find out that this is a fold based on some great hero read based on loads of hands made by someone with a sample but that's huge bias on my part thinking I made bad calls in that spot (which in turn makes it made up). Stats FTW.

    The bold part of this post is important, the non bold part is somewhat a joke.
  8. #8
    settecba's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ImSavy View Post
    Ong if you face a pot sized bet you need 33% equity, come on dude. A half pot sized bet needs 25% equity to call. This is less than a half pot sized bet so we need less than 25% (we need 24.6% to be more precise). This is all assuming no rake.

    The best exercise here is put villain on a range for each street. Starting with what he calls preflop with then narrowing it every street based on his action. Then based on the range you give him by the river you can count combos and see how often you win.
    My 27% came from adding incorrectly and doing 0.60/2.24 instead of 0.60/2.44. I should have realized it was over 25% and didn´t make sense, however I did not realize that, I´m a little rusty I guess.

    Regarding his range, I think it´s pretty wide and this is an easy call. I´ll be posting my analysis later. I don´t want any bias, since mainly this post is about what YOU think is villain´s range.

    Quote Originally Posted by griffey24 View Post
    Calling river.

    It's folding in spots like this that probably result in you winning 61% of your showdowns
    You´re right. Actually this was one of the first hands that called my attention when checking my database for missed river calls.

    Quote Originally Posted by ImSavy View Post
    98% he called and was against KQ, 99% he called and was against KQ or set.

    You're forgetting it's 2nl dude.
    I folded. It´s probably a leak that I´m trying to fix. In this case I think I folded because I simply "got scared", It wasn´t a result of a misjudge of his range. I simply wasn´t thinking clearly and playing my A-game. I guess I should work on that psicological aspect of the game. I was probably tired at the time I played the hand, and should have finished the session earlier.
    Quote Originally Posted by ISF
    Getting good at poker is like that scene in the matrix where Neo suddenly sees that everyone is just a bunch of structured numbers and then he starts bending those numbers in really weird ways.
  9. #9
    settecba's Avatar
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    Ok, this is my range analysis:

    Preflop Limp/Call range: 66-22, A7s-A2s, K7s+, Q8s+, J7s+, T7s+, 98s, 87s, 76s, 65s, 54s, ATo, K9o+, QTo+, JTo, T9o

    He´s hitting the flop with TP+ or a good draw with 67/184 hands (36,41%). I think he donks with close to 60% of his starting range. And that could be: JTs, JTo, KhQd, KhQs, KhQc, KcQd, KcQs, KhJd, KhJs, KhJc, KcJd, KcJh, KcJs, KhTd, KhTs, KhTc, KcTd, KcTh, KcTs, Kh9d, Kh9c, Kc9d, Kc9h, KcQc, QdJh, QdJs, QdJc, QsJd, QsJh, QsJc, QcJd, QcJh, QcJs, QdTh, QdTs, QdTc, QsTd, QsTh, QsTc, QcTd, QcTh, QcTs, KhJh, KcJc, QdJd, QsJs, QcJc, KhTh, KcTc, QdTd, QsTs, QcTc, Td9h, Td9c, Th9d, Th9c, Ts9d, Ts9h, Ts9c, Tc9d, Tc9h, Kh9h, Kc9c, Qd9d, Qc9c, Jd9d, Jh9h, Jc9c, Td9d, Th9h, Tc9c, Kh8h, Kc8c, Qd8d, Qs8s, Qc8c, Js8s, Ts8s, 9d8d, 9h8h, 9c8c, As7s, Kh7h, Kc7c, Js7s, Ts7s, 8s7s, As6s, 7s6s, As5s, 6s5s, As4s, 5s4s, As3s, As2s
    Those are 109 combos

    Let´s say that he continues turn with a reasonable range now consisting of top pair or better, or an 8+ outs draw(this is probably giving him too much credit). That would have him cbetting turn 64.22% of the time with 70 combos:

    JTs, JTo, KhQd, KhQs, KhQc, KcQd, KcQs, KhJd, KhJs, KhJc, KcJd, KcJh, KcJs, KhTd, KhTs, KhTc, KcTd, KcTh, KcTs, Kh9d, Kh9c, Kc9d, Kc9h, KcQc, KhJh, KcJc, QsJs, KhTh, KcTc, QsTs, Kh9h, Kc9c, Qd9d, Qc9c, Jh9h, Th9h, Kh8h, Kc8c, Qs8s, Js8s, Ts8s, 9h8h, As7s, Kh7h, Kc7c, Js7s, Ts7s, 8s7s, As6s, 7s6s, As5s, 6s5s, As4s, 5s4s, As3s, As2s

    By the river he now has 69 possible combos. I´m losing to Straights and 2Pairs that account for 34 combos. I only need him to be betting 13 more combos that I beat to have a +EV call(13/47>24.6%). He has 18 combos of top pair and 17 combos of worse. Plenty to choose IMO.

    This is a clear call. Even more so considering I gave him a reasonable turn cbetting range when being a LAG fish It could be a lot wider.

    EDIT: actually Villain called preflop from the SB, he's not the limp/caller. However, the analysis would be very similar
    Last edited by settecba; 02-08-2017 at 06:40 PM. Reason: Limp/Call range
  10. #10
    given it 2nl something i used to do with the nuts is make the river bet to leave opponent 1 cent ( or in tourney 1 chip) and its amazing how often you get called by complete trash that would most likely have folded if you put them all in ( Ong probably remembers me doing it in the gauntlet). forget it as you move up though, just wasting money higher up as they don't make those crazy calls.
  11. #11
    Just had a play with some assumed ranges for somebody with these stats and taking this slightly fishy line - it's a lot more difficult than I though to come up with something that would make this a fold. Sometimes you'll get shown two pair+, but there should be enough weaker kings in there too.

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