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2NL AKo in CO

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  1. #1
    Mury's Avatar
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    Default 2NL AKo in CO

    Hi all,

    BB: $2.17 (108.5 bb)
    Hero (CO): $5 (250 bb)
    BTN: $6.48 (324 bb)
    SB: $2.40 (120 bb)

    Preflop: Hero is CO with A K
    Hero raises to $0.08, BTN raises to $0.20, SB calls $0.19, BB folds, Hero ????

    BTN is a 20/14, 2/34 3bet over 104 hands.
    SB is a 56/2 over 50 hands

    I figure BTN has to have a pretty strong range here, something like QQ+, AK, maybe AQ? or am I off? I can't see him folding any of this range to a 4bet so we can't have any fold equity and vs. this range we have like 39%, so without fold equity we can't really raise here? Is calling the best option? It leaves us OOP vs. a strong range... we can't figure to get much value when we do hit an ace or a king and in these cases we may be way behind anyways.. or do we call to try to extract value from the fishes weak range when we hit?

    Any ideas are appreciated

    Thanks
  2. #2
    It's a pretty easy call, just don't go mental when you hit an Ace or a King.
  3. #3
    worked through a similar example yesterday for a 5nl hand .

    JJ+AQs+ AK vs AsKc gives him 44 combos. if you shove lets assume he continues with QQ+,AK which is 34 combos


    when he folds you win $1.50


    if he calls
    http://www.pokerstrategy.com
    Equity Win Tie
    MP3 38.82% 18.15% 20.68% { AsKc }
    BB 61.18% 40.50% 20.68% { QQ+, AKs, AKo }




    his EV to call is 10*0.6118- 4*0.3882=4.56


    10/44 you win 1.50 and 34/44 you lose 4.56


    EVshove is 0.23*1.5 -.77*4.56=.34-3.51= -3.16






    ------------------------------------------------


    lets look at calling .....three options
    1 call and fold flop if we miss
    2. call and win when we hit flop
    3. call and lose when we hit flop


    6 ace and king outs
    http://www.pokerstrategy.com
    Board: 4d6hAc
    Equity Win Tie
    MP3 76.78% 64.42% 12.36% { AsKc }
    BB 23.22% 10.86% 12.36% { JJ+, AQs+, AKo }


    http://www.pokerstrategy.com
    Board: 4dKh6h
    Equity Win Tie
    MP3 65.65% 53.92% 11.73% { AsKc }
    BB 34.35% 22.63% 11.73% { JJ+, AQs+, AKo }




    so a rough estimate if we hit we will have ~70% equity. also going to assume we win a cbet (~1.50) 1/3 of the time (he folds his JJ QQ after a cbet with A or K on flop) and 2/3 of time we play for stacks.
    so . chance of hitting flop is (6/50+6/49+6/48)=37%


    EV of Calling = EV of Outcome 1 + EV of Outcome 2 + EV of Outcome 3
    EV of Calling = (chance of 1)(profit of 1) + (chance of 2)(profit of 2) + (chance of 3)(loss of 3)
    EV of Calling = .63*(-1) + .37*( (1/3(2.30+1.50)+2/3(0.7*10.3))+ 0.3*(-4.85))
    EV of Calling = -0.63+ .37*((1.27+4.80)-1.46)
    ev of calling = 2.79-.63=2.16




    ev of calling vs this guy looks to be better than shoving
  4. #4
    Also that doesn't take into account playing a pot with relative position with a fish involved. Which makes calling even more attractive.
  5. #5
    Renton's Avatar
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    Your thought process is fantastic. As for the hand, there's a good bit of merit to 4-betting here. I think your assessment of BU's range is a little narrow. Yeah he seems to be on the tight side, but this is 4 handed play and he's 3-betting button vs cutoff so I'd guess he's got a pretty wide range. I would probably 4-bet to like 66c in an attempt to isolate the donk and play a big pot. If BU flats your 4-bet in position it isn't the end of the world. If he 5-bets you can probably get away from the hand at that point, so in a way you're paying 66 to gain a little information, in addition to the other benefits.

    Calling would be ok too.
  6. #6
    Quote Originally Posted by Renton View Post
    Your thought process is fantastic. As for the hand, there's a good bit of merit to 4-betting here. I think your assessment of BU's range is a little narrow. Yeah he seems to be on the tight side, but this is 4 handed play and he's 3-betting button vs cutoff so I'd guess he's got a pretty wide range. I would probably 4-bet to like 66c in an attempt to isolate the donk and play a big pot. If BU flats your 4-bet in position it isn't the end of the world. If he 5-bets you can probably get away from the hand at that point, so in a way you're paying 66 to gain a little information, in addition to the other benefits.

    Calling would be ok too.
    This is 2nl, it's unlikely he is thinking about isolating a fish and it wouldn't amaze me if his range wasn't much wider than the one given in OP.
  7. #7
    Mury's Avatar
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    Seems like it's pretty close either way..

    What I actually did was 4bet to $1 which in retrospect is probably waay too much. This would likely only succeed in folding out hands we beat at a much higher price than is necessary.
  8. #8
    Renton's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ImSavy View Post
    This is 2nl, it's unlikely he is thinking about isolating a fish and it wouldn't amaze me if his range wasn't much wider than the one given in OP.
    You misunderstood me. I think BU is probably fairly wide because its four handed play and he's 3-betting the cutoff vs the button. I think WE should 4-bet now to isolate the fish.
  9. #9
    No, I just forgot to add that he also probably isn't adjusting for 4 handed play either.
  10. #10
    Renton's Avatar
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    Maybe he is, maybe he isn't. Regardless is the fact that AK is extremely strong in 4-handed play because its extremely hard to deal 4 pairs of cards and have one of those pairs be AK and one of the other three be AA or KK. It just causes people to have more dumb shit when they 3-bet. This is the dude's 3rd 3-bet in 35 opportunities and we have AK, chances are extremely good that he has a weaker hand than us.
  11. #11
    Given SB is a huge whale, this is a fist-pump 4b pre-flop imo.

    Actually in most scenarios where BTN or SB aren't nits I'm 4b preflop.
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    I gave the other grip, I lost a flip for five stacks
  12. #12
    You can call, but also you should be careful of the BTN, because I think that he has pocket pair, and he has a good chance to make a set. About the SB, I think that he has something like AQ or AJ.

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