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2NL AA Checked on Fairly Innocuous Board

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  1. #1
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    Default 2NL AA Checked on Fairly Innocuous Board

    Villain stats: 24 / 16 / 52 / 1.8 / CB 40 / FCB 50 / EDIT: 38 hands

    Winning Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $0.02 BB (6 handed) - Winning Poker Converter Tool from http://flopturnriver.com

    Hero (UTG) ($2.17)
    MP ($2)
    CO ($3.29)
    Button ($2)
    SB ($3.81)
    BB ($2)

    Preflop: Hero is UTG with A, A
    Hero raises $0.07, 4 folds, BB calls $0.05

    Flop: ($0.15) 8, 9, 3 (2 players)
    BB checks, Hero checks
    Last edited by Mcash2; 06-22-2017 at 08:37 AM.
  2. #2
    OngBonga's Avatar
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    There's tons in his range that calls. Don't check this.

    9Ts TJ QJ QT A9 A8 call, maybe 22-77 peel one street, he can have JJ/QQ and raise, he could even call AK.

    Meanwhile, he folds a few Ax Kx that maybe hit the turn. Doesn't seem like there's all that much value in letting him see a free turn. You're gonna need him to bluff the turn a lot.

    You really should be betting this.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  3. #3
    I can't think of any applicable reasons for us to not bet this flop.
  4. #4
    MadMojoMonkey's Avatar
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    It's hard to imagine a range that BB can hold which you are not ahead of on this flop.

    If you're not betting this, then what ARE you betting on this flop?
  5. #5
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    Quote Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey View Post
    If you're not betting this, then what ARE you betting on this flop?
    Exactly what I was thinking. Would love to hear OP's logic on this one.
  6. #6
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    I'm all discombobulated. I had to fight not to bet here. I'm trying to lower my CB rate of 80%. It is hard. I'm trying to learn when not to, not just lowering a rate. I had a brain fart from an article I just read about not CBing these kind of low mediocre flops, as no one believes you hit it. They would be more apt to call my CB. But this is opposite of Bluff-type CB. I want them to think I am bluffing and call. Chalk this one up to new-guy ness or stupidity. I have learned a lesson, although I'm sure I will check other flop that I clearly shouldn't have, as I practice.
  7. #7
    OngBonga's Avatar
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    I'm trying to lower my CB rate of 80%.
    This isn't the time to be doing this. On the contrary, this is the time to be glad that you have 80% cbet and hope villain knows it.

    If your cbet stat is too high, then trim the bluffs, not value bets.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  8. #8
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    Quote Originally Posted by OngBonga View Post
    This isn't the time to be doing this. On the contrary, this is the time to be glad that you have 80% cbet and hope villain knows it.

    If your cbet stat is too high, then trim the bluffs, not value bets.
    I see your point. They are more likely to see my high CB% and call me weak. Didn't think that through, yet will going forward. I'm at a good 1 and 3/4 level poker thinking.
  9. #9
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    Villain stats: 24 / 16 / 52 / 1.8 / CB 40 / FCB 50 / 38 hands

    Winning Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $0.02 BB (6 handed) - Winning Poker Converter Tool from http://www.flopturnriver.com/

    Hero (UTG) ($2.17)
    MP ($2)
    CO ($3.29)
    Button ($2)
    SB ($3.81)
    BB ($2)

    Preflop: Hero is UTG with A, A
    Hero raises $0.07, 4 folds, BB calls $0.05

    Flop: ($0.15) 8, 9, 3 (2 players)
    BB checks, Hero checks

    Turn: ($0.15) 6 (2 players)
    BB bets $0.11, Hero raises $0.38, BB calls $0.27

    River: ($0.91) J (2 players)
    BB bets $0.65, Hero calls $0.65

    Total pot: $2.21 | Rake: $0.09
  10. #10
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    Turning AA into a bluff @ NL2 is a recipe for insanity. Flop/turn are clear value bets. Don't overthink it man, standard lines... standard lines.
  11. #11
    I don't think he thinks he is turning it into a bluff. He thinks he has AA therefore pot is his.
  12. #12
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    Oh no doubt. Pointing it out though because he needs to know that he's generally repping something stronger than AA. So when called and then led into on the river, he's not surprised when villain tables a better hand.
  13. #13
    Quote Originally Posted by StarGrinder View Post
    Oh no doubt. Pointing it out though because he needs to know that he's generally repping something stronger than AA. So when called and then led into on the river, he's not surprised when villain tables a better hand.
    Ye I agree just don't think it was clear to a newer player.
  14. #14
    OngBonga's Avatar
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    Turn and river are fine after flop check.

    As for repping stronger than aces, I'm not so sure. I think it looks bluffy with something like AK. Let's not forget hero's stats are something like 26/9 or whatever it was. This villain has solid stats and is probably using a HUD, it's possible villain doesn't respect hero, and will think this line doesn't make sense and is therefore a bad bluff. I can see JT/QJ calling the raise then stabbing pot, assuming hero will either check behind or call with AK.

    I'm not surprised though if he shows up with QT/T7s/J9s or a set. In fact the part of his range that beats us is quite a bit larger than the part that we beat. Calling this river could be a mistake, but then again I'm not folding after we check flop. It's a marginal enough mistake, if it is one, that I'm not gonna sweat about it.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  15. #15
    Assuming 2nl players all have a hud and are paying attention and that his stats make out he has hit on that board
  16. #16
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    Meh the more I think about it the more I think the river is a clear fold. Villain is solid and surely knows we're UTG. He surely beats aces to bet river. Our range is going to look like QQ+ AK, and he probably doesn't expect us to call AK.

    If villain has missed draws, then maybe he could try to bluff out AK. But it's hard to imagine what he calls turn raise with that misses the river completely. JT/QJ are not beating our calling range, and villain is probably aware of this, so he's more likely to c/c river with these holdings.

    His river bet is unpleasant.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  17. #17
    OngBonga's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Savy View Post
    Assuming 2nl players all have a hud and are paying attention and that his stats make out he has hit on that board
    I assume 2nl players with solid stats are using a HUD.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  18. #18
    We're probably only getting two streets here. The question is what flop line makes that more likely than one street. I don't hate the flop check, but we generally don't need to get too tricky at 2nl. Players at the micros tend to make more calling mistakes than betting mistakes.
  19. #19
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    Quote Originally Posted by OngBonga View Post
    This isn't the time to be doing this. On the contrary, this is the time to be glad that you have 80% cbet and hope villain knows it.

    If your cbet stat is too high, then trim the bluffs, not value bets.
    Guys are calling cbets at an extremely high frequency in these games he's in. They're just peeling the flop and then look for weakness on the turn and boom - massive check raise or shove. Of course, this makes them highly exploitable but you really do need to watch what boards you're cbetting on and against who or else you can really cripple your bbs/100 at the nanos.

    Of course, there are your regular stock of fish who you can cbet 80%-100% against profitably (quite) but that's by no means the norm.
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  20. #20
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    Quote Originally Posted by The Bean Counter View Post
    We're probably only getting two streets here. The question is what flop line makes that more likely than one street. I don't hate the flop check, but we generally don't need to get too tricky at 2nl. Players at the micros tend to make more calling mistakes than betting mistakes.
    Again, all cash games are reg infested on WPN. I was watching tags and nits play ABC and just getting totally run over at 2NL and 5NL yesterday into today. It just doesn't work on there. regs, including myself, are 3/4betting like crazy even @ 2NL.
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  21. #21
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    Quote Originally Posted by OngBonga View Post
    I assume 2nl players with solid stats are using a HUD.
    Most on BOL are not. Virtually nobody on WPN doesn't use PT4 or HM2.
    Shove dick in their mouth, then I'm out...

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  22. #22
    OngBonga's Avatar
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    but you really do need to watch what boards you're cbetting on and against who
    Of course, but 983r is a great flop for AA. Villain is unlikely to have better than us, but enough of his range at least wants to see another card.

    If you're not cbetting overpairs on 9 high flops, then when are you cbetting them?

    Most on BOL are not. Virtually nobody on WPN doesn't use PT4 or HM2.
    How can you know? If it's not against site rules, then you're guessing. My guess is based on their stats, and if they're running at something like 20/18 or not too far from that, then I consider them to be near optimal for the stakes. It's an assumption that they're using a HUD, and it might be wrong, but I have no other way of knowing.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  23. #23
    BigSlickBaby's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by OngBonga View Post
    How can you know? If it's not against site rules, then you're guessing.
    I'm not guessing. PT4 and HM2 aren't compatible with BetOnline without a converter. The same company that makes that, makes their own HUD called DriveHUD. That's what people are starting to use on BO but until now, and even now, the vast majority of players will openly admit in chat that they don't use a HUD, hate them, etc. It's a rec network.

    WPN is the complete opposite. If you don't use a HUD you're at a huge disadvantage.
    Shove dick in their mouth, then I'm out...

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  24. #24
    OngBonga's Avatar
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    I'd say in the chat bar I wasn't using a HUD even if I was.

    I'll grant that it's less likely people are using HUDs if some, but not others, are banned on a particular platform. I was under the impression that eiither all HUDs were allowed, or none. I could well be misinformed.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  25. #25
    What's a hud?
  26. #26
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    Quote Originally Posted by OngBonga View Post
    I'd say in the chat bar I wasn't using a HUD even if I was.

    I'll grant that it's less likely people are using HUDs if some, but not others, are banned on a particular platform. I was under the impression that eiither all HUDs were allowed, or none. I could well be misinformed.
    I think it may be more of a compatibility issue than black-balling.
  27. #27
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    Quote Originally Posted by BigSlickBaby View Post
    WPN is the complete opposite. If you don't use a HUD you're at a huge disadvantage.
    This is definitely not true below 25NL.

    HUDs don't actually provide any useful information until/unless they have many tens of thousands of data points on a situation. Bernoulli trials (the mathematical term for events with binary outcomes) simply take a long time to converge when you're teasing out a rate of occurrence.

    Most players don't have that many hands against a single opponent, let alone many times that many hands to tease out anything other than pre-flop frequencies.

    Bottom line is this: HUDs are all-too-often misused as a crutch by perfectly ambulatory people. Pretending you're handicapped when you're not isn't a well-known path to self-improvement.
    EDIT: whereas patient observation and honest self-reflection are.
    Last edited by MadMojoMonkey; 06-26-2017 at 11:01 AM.
  28. #28
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    While you're right that large samples will give us important data that can be used to make more accurate plays, it doesn't take long to get a basic overview of villains' pre flop ranges and tendancies. If someone is 45/8 after just 20 hands, we know he's not very good and is calling way too much pre flop.

    We need large samples against solid players, but even with a small sample a HUD is very useful for profiling fish, and fish are our primary target at micros.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  29. #29
    MadMojoMonkey's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by OngBonga View Post
    While you're right that large samples will give us important data that can be used to make more accurate plays, it doesn't take long to get a basic overview of villains' pre flop ranges and tendancies. If someone is 45/8 after just 20 hands, we know he's not very good and is calling way too much pre flop.
    Yes, and if you need a HUD to provide you with that information, then you aren't paying enough attention to your opponents' habits.

    I'm not saying HUDs are bad, I'm saying that the sentence, "If you don't use a HUD you're at a huge disadvantage." is definitely false.
    You may (emphasis) be at a minor disadvantage against a small set of players in a small set of circumstances, but on the whole, 99% of what they are using a HUD to figure out is plain as day to be observed w/o a HUD.

    If 99% of what people use a HUD for is a waste of their energy (which I posit it is, if that isn't an under-estimate), because they can figure all of that out in less time w/o using any HUD at all, then the actual competitive advantage of using a HUD is minimal.

    Quote Originally Posted by OngBonga View Post
    We need large samples against solid players, but even with a small sample a HUD is very useful for profiling fish, and fish are our primary target at micros.
    Again... if you need a HUD to identify player characteristics in the first 1,000 hands against someone, then my primary advice to you would be to ditch the HUD and start watching the action.

    HUDs can be wildly useful, but they just aren't for the obvious stuff which dictates almost all of the decisions at the micro-stakes.
  30. #30
    OngBonga's Avatar
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    Yes, and if you need a HUD to provide you with that information, then you aren't paying enough attention to your opponents' habits.
    Ideally we want to use a HUD and pay attention, but you raise a valid point, in that we don't want to become complacent just because we have a HUD.

    It's better to pay attaention and make notes, especially for a noob at micros. But no harm using a HUD to help.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  31. #31
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    I think a HUD is surely essential to your bottom dollar when multi-tabling 6-12 tables.
  32. #32
    Quote Originally Posted by Mcash2 View Post
    I think a HUD is surely essential to your bottom dollar when multi-tabling 6-12 tables.
    Hi there pal, just a quick heads up. We all make mistakes but I have to say I think that doing this until you understand poker really well is a bit of a mistake. Was probably my biggest mistake when I was learning to play poker. Maybe not though chap.
  33. #33
    MadMojoMonkey's Avatar
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    Something's not right, here.
    Last edited by MadMojoMonkey; 06-26-2017 at 04:51 PM.
  34. #34
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    Did he just say 12 tables?
  35. #35
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    That was a rhetorical comment, not I says the lamb.
  36. #36
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mcash2 View Post
    That was a rhetorical comment, not I says the lamb.
    ??? Wtf does this mean?
    Shove dick in their mouth, then I'm out...

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  37. #37
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    Quote Originally Posted by BigSlickBaby View Post
    ??? Wtf does this mean?
    I was trying to get them going with a persuasive comment, easily taken out of context. Should have been written ...,"not I," says the lamb. Meaning the student is not wasting everyone's time by playing 12 tables at a time and learning nothing from my opponents' play.

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