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Originally Posted by OngBonga
Your flop bet should probably be bigger, seeing as he possibly peels as bad as 22/Ax at $1.
It's the rest of his range that is elastic. If he's folding everything short of A-high to 1/3p, then this is a fantastic spot for our range to bet 1/3p.
This is a classic flop where it helped a very small portion of the preflop caller's range, but the part it did help, it helped out big time (9x being a heavier card for the caller than the aggressor). So we have the range advantage as a whole, but the more we isolate them toward the top of their range, the advantage flips. Because of this, we want to force them into a strategy where they have to defend with as much of their range as possible, and where we are making it difficult for him to bloat the pot on us IP.
All that being said, 88 is THE hand that benefits most from a larger size, since it gets fat value, gains a ton from protection (we don't really love enticing broadways with backdoor bullshit to peel when we're OOP), and it has the best blockers to 9x. So if we're range splitting, this would be the first hand in the bigger bet size bucket. Maybe I'll blow dust off the old solver and see if it thinks range splitting is worth much here.
But that's all the theory side of the discussion. A lot of small-stakes TAG bots don't realize that 99xr is a good board to raise some highly speculative hands with because TAG bots often only bluff flops with 8+ front-door outs. These same TAGbots might take an unusually sized bet as an invitation to raise it (even though theory says they should do just the opposite). In other words, in practice, it could be worth it to not rock the boat and just keep printing the easy EVs you can expect to print here with more standard looking bets.
And all THAT being said, my population reads for online SSNL are extremely dated, so I wouldn't be surprised if reactions to <1/2p bets have changed.
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