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25z: flop and turn line out of position 3 way

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  1. #1

    Default 25z: flop and turn line out of position 3 way

    I think I like my sizing on the flop here. Even though I rarely bet my value hands this size on this texture, I think we price ourselves nicely to see the turn, rather than getting in a mess versus a bigger sizing out of position. Or is this just bad?

    Turn seems like one of the cards we can barrel on, looking to follow through on the one third of the deck we hit on the river and maybe turn into a bluff on a Q or K. If people are check calling, are they leading good rivers and turning their hand almost face up?

    MP villain is 17/8 over a small sample. CO is the same player from the 88 hand.

    Poker Stars, $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
    Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

    SB: $25.10 (100.4 bb)
    BB: $14.46 (57.8 bb)
    Hero (UTG): $47.62 (190.5 bb)
    MP: $26.12 (104.5 bb)
    CO: $25.35 (101.4 bb)
    BTN: $26.99 (108 bb)

    Preflop: Hero is UTG with A 3
    Hero raises to $0.75, MP calls $0.75, CO calls $0.75, 3 folds

    Flop: ($2.60) 2 9 J (3 players)
    Hero bets $0.87, MP calls $0.87, CO calls $0.87

    Turn: ($5.21) 5 (3 players)
    Hero bets $1.74, MP calls $1.74, CO calls $1.74

    River: ($10.43) 4 (3 players)
    Hero bets $6.47, MP calls $6.47, CO folds
  2. #2
    OngBonga's Avatar
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    Bluffing Q/K river would be really bad with CO chasing with a range that almost certainly likes a river Q/K.

    I'm not a fan of this sizing. How much are you betting flop with if you have JJ+? Not this size. Granted, it's hard for villain to put you on a hand that likes a river 4, so I do like the river bet. But flop and turn just looks a lot like AK/AQ/draw.

    I would stab flop properly, like 2/3 pot. I would check/assess turn, almost certainly calling this turn, especially with CO chasing. I would c/f turn if MP overbets and CO folds, or MP bets and CO raises.

    That said, if you know these guys are calling stations, and you expect a bigger bet if you check, then this line is probably ok. I just think it's transparent and relies on villains sucking, which in this case they do.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  3. #3
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    Are these bet sizes standard at 25z on Stars these days? I just don't see it much at any site I play on. With an overcard and NFD, I'd just bet flop between 1.50-1.75. I agree with Ong about the turn, where if they're stabby I prefer betting and laying our own price. I guess we could check/call too but if they're decent hand readers I think our range screams of a draw. Does a river diamond ever get bet when checked to? Are we getting called when we lead out on a river diamond?
  4. #4
    OngBonga's Avatar
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    Are we getting called when we lead out on a river diamond?
    More often than we'll see a bet after we check. If we make the nuts, we really need to bet the river. Obviously villain will have folds, and our sizing will influence that range, but he's going to call his Jx so long as we don't get greedy. Plus, he might have a flush too, which is likely to raise a modest river bet. If we get greedy, he might just call his flush.

    So yeah, river value bet for sure when we make a hand.

    We might have been able to bet this river more considering it's the perfect runout for us. This is better than a flush, even though it's not the nuts, because our hand is so well protected. Villain is calling a lot wider here.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  5. #5
    Razvan729's Avatar
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    flop bet seems just like your holding. weak J or draws, maybe a TT/ 9x. 3way you'd never bet so small AJ+.
    like played, donk turn turn 3-3.5$, looks a lot better then that scared bet and you have 12 clean outs so its a legite bet. you can b/c w/o a problem.
    All posts are just my own opinion about a hand or a general situation... not advices on how you should play...
  6. #6
    Razvan729's Avatar
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    c/f river . very low chances they both fold to a 3rd barrel. vs regs i would consider a a 3rd barrel knowing is a losing play at that time just to widen theyr calling range vs my river value bets. that is if they are average thinking regs.
    All posts are just my own opinion about a hand or a general situation... not advices on how you should play...
  7. #7
    OngBonga's Avatar
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    raz, we made a straight on river.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  8. #8
    OngBonga's Avatar
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    Also, note we have much fewer combos that make a hand on this river vs a diamond river, therefore we have better than a flush, even though it's not the nuts. We're getting paid more often, while 63 is never calling flop (we block 63dd). This is the perfect runout.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  9. #9
    I normally bet somewhere between third and half pot multiway with a mix of value and bluffs. I think betting more is bad - we don't need to bet big to get all in by the river and we price our one and done bluffs nicely. What's the counter?

    Do we think there's value in a bet flop, check raise turn line? This is one of our best bluffing hands.
  10. #10
    OngBonga's Avatar
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    The problem with these smaller bets is you have less fold equity and you're giving villains a great price to draw. I prefer a betting range of half pot to 3/4 pot, depending mainly on board texture and ranges.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  11. #11
    Razvan729's Avatar
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    Sorry, i missread river ) so stack off river i stand by my flop / turn play though
    All posts are just my own opinion about a hand or a general situation... not advices on how you should play...
  12. #12
    OngBonga's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Razvan729 View Post
    Sorry, i missread river ) so stack off river i stand by my flop / turn play though
    Turn is actually interesting.

    I don't hate a turn b/c, but I'd be betting flop more, meaning pot is probably $2 bigger on turn, so if he raises a turn bet he's probably just going to shove, which would mean we're making a decision on pure pot odds. I really don't want to get priced out. Not even sure if he can price us out, it will be close. I suppose if I were skilled in bet sizing, I could bet the right amounts to ensure a profitable call to a turn shove, but sadly this kind of hand planning is not an area of strength for me. This is why I c/c turn... I think b/c is optimal if our sizing is optimal, but c/c is a +ev default without the need for skilled hand planning.

    That said, at $25nl, we should be planning our hand better than I do at lower stakes.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong

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