25NL zoom - easy call right?

Previous 3bet by villain was with AKo. 6max, I can't fold this despite the check/call turn and check/raise river right?

PokerStars - $0.25 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4


BTN: 142 BB (VPIP: 100.00, PFR: 100.00, 3Bet Preflop: -, Hands: 1)
SB: 118.4 BB (VPIP: 5.66, PFR: 3.77, 3Bet Preflop: 4.35, Hands: 53)
BB: 149.8 BB (VPIP: 24.55, PFR: 21.82, 3Bet Preflop: 14.29, Hands: 113)
UTG: 355.4 BB (VPIP: 17.19, PFR: 14.26, 3Bet Preflop: 4.00, Hands: 485)
MP: 101 BB (VPIP: 50.00, PFR: 50.00, 3Bet Preflop: -, Hands: 2)
Hero (CO): 221.36 BB


SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB


Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has 8 8


fold, fold, Hero raises to 3 BB, BTN calls 3 BB, fold, BB raises to 12 BB, Hero calls 9 BB, fold


Flop: (27.4 BB, 2 players) A 5 8
BB checks, Hero bets 14 BB, BB calls 14 BB


Turn: (55.4 BB, 2 players) J
BB checks, Hero bets 29 BB, BB calls 29 BB


River: (113.4 BB, 2 players) 2
BB checks, Hero bets 61 BB, BB raises to 94.8 BB and is all-in..

what do you think villains range is if he x/c flop?

reconsider the preflop call. Go a bit bigger on turn and river, as played snap-call it off - you're calling 34 into about 300 and you're obviously good often enough to make the call.

@Acg - I'm still getting used to the ranges business rather than putting people on hands, but I would think with his stats on the flop I'd say still TT+, AK, AQs.
Turn made me suspicious, river raise stunk of a set.

@daven - I'd always learned that PP call for set is ok if you and villain have 10x bet. Has this thinking changed of late? (I last played seriously 5 years ago before coming back)

Originally Posted by renegaderob1

@daven - I'd always learned that PP call for set is ok if you and villain have 10x bet. Has this thinking changed of late? (I last played seriously 5 years ago before coming back)

yeah, games have changed somewhat.
default five years ago was call, hit set, stack villain, ez game.

players recognise sets more often now. You flop a set about 1 in 9 times. If you stack villain every time you hit then villain having 10x the call behind might be enough, probably not though. In 3b pot situations it used to be that villain pretty much always had nut ranges, players are 3b more diverse and weaker ranges now => they're more likely to not be very stackable post-flop.

Ok, good to know, I'll rethink my set hunt strategy.

Would you be stacking off enough post-flop for it to be profitable to call 7-8x bet then?

Originally Posted by daven

players are 3b more diverse and weaker ranges now => they're more likely to not be very stackable post-flop.

exactly. that's what I was going to reply that his range of "TT+, AK, AQs" is close, but I asked specifically what his flop x/c range was. I think his turn x/c range is exactly what OP stated, his flop range includes 99,55,maybe 66 and 77 aswell maybe AJs too as his 3b % is fairly high, villain is probably keen to the concept of stealing and 3bets pretty wide for value, just curious whats heros stats at the time of the hand?

My session stats were; VP 15, PR 11, 3B 3, attempt to steal 22, total AF 3.2, CB 72, turn CB 50

I'd only played him that session and not prior so he would be using those stats if he has HUD

Originally Posted by renegaderob1

My session stats were; VP 15, PR 11, 3B 3, attempt to steal 22, total AF 3.2, CB 72, turn CB 50

I'd only played him that session and not prior so he would be using those stats if he has HUD

I doubt hes 3 betting light vs you. Unless your F23B is like 80% then your range is very close now. OTT i think villain only continues with AK,AJ,AA,JJ maybe 55.
We beat 18 combos
We lose to 6 combos with 55 its 9 combos.
Easy call.

Originally Posted by renegaderob1

@daven - I'd always learned that PP call for set is ok if you and villain have 10x bet. Has this thinking changed of late? (I last played seriously 5 years ago before coming back)

10x in general is probably too low. This only accounts for the fact that villain will have an overpair often and you will stack villain often when he does and you hit your set.

This doesn't account for the times that villain beats your set (set over set, or hits a flush vs your set etc). This also doesn't account for the times you call 88, flop comes 257, 36T etc and are tempted to call a flop (or worse even a turn) before folding to barrels.

You're probably better off using 15-17x, and erring on the tighter side.

As for the hand, I would just jam river. Now that you've bet small, snap call given pot odds ofcourse.

There's no question that x10 is too low at these stakes. I'm looking for a minimum of x15 at 2nl, here's it's probably x25 because setmining against competent players just isn't profitable. I'm not saying I fold pre, but I'm not calling purely to hit a set. I'm gonna float a lot of flops if I call this.

I think I call this because bb is probably gonna 3b co and bu at a higher frequency. I feel like this hand is just too strong to allow the bb to blow me out. But it's close, really close. 77 I'd be folding.

As played, well I'm obviously not folding but I'm certainly not fistpumping. Villain c/c's flop as 3bettor on Axx. That makes me very uncomfortable with his river shove, it would surprise me to see AK slow play in this manner. I can play AK like this, but I'd only call the river because AK is not a monster here. So I think villain's range is AA/JJ exactly. That said, he's not gonna need to have much stuff we beat before this call becomes profitable, and I'm not comfortable with putting villain on AA/JJ only because people do crazy shit, myself included. So call river. Just don't be surprised when he flips over aces.

deleted, nm

He looking at more than 15x9BB here (2x9BB on the table already and another 15x9BB ESS) so it's alright.

Is villain's stack more important for set-mining?
If villain has 20x SBR but I only have 10x am I (enough) more likely to get my double-up?
Obviously my return can't be boosted to 20x to make up for the times he folds but the chance of getting that 10x are probably better than if he has 10x and I have the 25x.

Why not 3Betting light acg? Did you miss the Btn Flatting?
I wouldn't be terribly surprised if he was squeezing with almost any Ax (small sample but substantial 3bet%).
Not sure he'd continue flop without an Ace.
No CB stat for him? If he had high CB this looks very like AA ..but at 10:1 AK, AJ and 55 are plausible enough to make it a call even if you think he wouldn't put it all out for AQ ..you might be playing against this fish :

Me: you've inflated the pot to the point of being All In with just top pair.
acg123: majority of the time this is good enough,

(we'll just quietly ignore that he was talking as the aggressor in a non-3Bet pot there )

first let me say, im an idiot. I misread BB stats at the time of original posting. villain is 3betting 14%.

Originally Posted by Timlagor

Is villain's stack more important for set-mining?
no, were calling because were ahead of his 3b range and aren't strong enough to 4bet but not weak enough to fold.

Why not 3Betting light acg? Did you miss the Btn Flatting?
yes I did, I also missed his 3bet being 14% over 113 hands, that's like 14-15 3bets in 17-18 rounds.


I wouldn't be terribly surprised if he was squeezing with almost any Ax (small sample but substantial 3bet%).
agreed.

Not sure he'd continue flop without an Ace.
whattt? we can get a minimum of 1 street with ANY Ace in his range. hes not going to squeeze A2s, the x/f A high flop.

No CB stat for him? If he had high CB this looks very like AA
agreed.

but at 10:1 AK, AJ and 55 are plausible enough to make it a call even if you think he wouldn't put it all out for AQ ..you might be playing against this fish :
I would never fold the river with a set vs. this villain in this situation.( 3bet pot,IP, vs. loose 3b'er,Squeezer) I think hes going to have so many Axs hands in 3b/sqz range that we have to call.



(we'll just quietly ignore that he was talking as the aggressor in a non-3Bet pot there )

what are you trying to say tim? it was $5 anon. zoom. TP is the nuts.

acg: I was saying I wasn't convinced that Villain continues on the the flop with JJ (55 he does but that's an unlikely squeeze so he's pretty
much got an Ace). I'm not sure what you thought I was saying but I don't see how your response applies to that.
Also from your earlier post: 888 beats 555 so those extra combos belong on the other side.

There was a side discussion on set-mining stack requirements. I was speculating that it's more important for villain to have plenty of chips as they are more likely to pay off your shorter stack when they are deep than to pay off their whole stack when they're not.


88 is pretty close to set-mining in this situation however as all overcards are dangerous -especially so if BTN calls behind- and you're fairly unlikely to miss them all on the flop. He's got 15:1 on the bet (potentially) and I agree there's some showdown value to the 88 alone* so there's no problem calling.
* though with 3B of 14% I'm expecting (erroneously ...but that's a warning sign if he doesn't usually go all passive after the flop) aggression from BB making the set-mining more likely to pay but seriously reducing the chances of realising equity otherwise: calling's going to get very hard later in the hand without a set.

Originally Posted by Timlagor

acg: I was saying I wasn't convinced that Villain continues on the the flop with JJ (55 he does but that's an unlikely squeeze so he's pretty
much got an Ace). I'm not sure what you thought I was saying but I don't see how your response applies to that.
Also from your earlier post: 888 beats 555 so those extra combos belong on the other side.

There was a side discussion on set-mining stack requirements. I was speculating that it's more important for villain to have plenty of chips as they are more likely to pay off your shorter stack when they are deep than to pay off their whole stack when they're not.


88 is pretty close to set-mining in this situation however as all overcards are dangerous -especially so if BTN calls behind- and you're fairly unlikely to miss them all on the flop. He's got 15:1 on the bet (potentially) and I agree there's some showdown value to the 88 alone* so there's no problem calling.
* though with 3B of 14% I'm expecting (erroneously ...but that's a warning sign if he doesn't usually go all passive after the flop) aggression from BB making the set-mining more likely to pay but seriously reducing the chances of realising equity otherwise: calling's going to get very hard later in the hand without a set.

heard.


what if flop come 662, or 932r, or J74.

personally im raising any cbet on all those boards, 14% will have lots of air and theres a ton of bad turn cards that will make calling down with 88 very difficult as you said. when he checks flop, I put him on Ace. x/c x/c x/r is similar line to 3bet weak Axs that want to get to showdown cheap, but ended up catching 2nd pair OTT or river. I mean think about, he 3bets A5s, flops and ace, and his cbet gets raised. hes going to feel gross about any decision he makes. so x/c seems legit. the x/r is just a donation in my eyes. but wtf do I know. I am fish.lol

I'd call for sure, if he had AA you were just really unlucky on that flop

Originally Posted by acg123

heard.
what if flop come 662, or 932r, or J74.

Yeah ok the 9-J aren't all that dangerous but he could well be squeezing with A9s so we're hardly pleased to see them.

when he checks flop, I put him on Ace. x/c x/c x/r is similar line to 3bet weak Axs that want to get to showdown cheap, but ended up catching 2nd pair OTT or river. I mean think about, he 3bets A5s, flops and ace, and his cbet gets raised. hes going to feel gross about any decision he makes. so x/c seems legit. the x/r is just a donation in my eyes. but wtf do I know. I am fish.lol

[F] Check-Call definitely looks like a 1-pair Ace or possible KK/QQ ..unless it's AA feeling trappy. Check on it's own could also be weaker than that (let's assume he has some kind of X/F range).
A5 is 2 pair on the flop (not clear you realised that) and I'm expecting him to bet or c/r that really -it's strong but not strong enough to be thinking of slow-playing; AA by contrast dominates and blocks so much that he wouldn't want to bet you off when he can hope you'll pick something up and think him weak.

I think you're mostly agreeing with me but the tone reads like you're not so to be absolutely clear:
[F] X/C I think he has (at least one) Ace (55 possible but unlikely)
[T] Now he's weighted towards AA, AJ but other aces might call if he's that sort of fella. 99-KK aren't impossible but he's probably leaking badly if he got this far with them.
[R] I think he has 2 pair with AA still definitely in his range. He might also be plain bonkers.
Clearly a call.

Timlagor: Not sure he'd continue flop without an Ace.
acg: whattt? we can get a minimum of 1 street with ANY Ace in his range. hes not going to squeeze A2s, the x/f A high flop.

I don't understand what you were saying here. I think he has an ace when he calls the flop. I agree he calls pretty much all the Aces in his range at this point.

Originally Posted by Timlagor

Clearly a call.

agreed.

Originally Posted by Timlagor

I don't understand what you were saying here. I think he has an ace when he calls the flop. I agree he calls pretty much all the Aces in his range at this point.

I was skim reading apparently, I could of swore you had "not sure he'd continue flop with any Ace."

my bad man, I agree with you 100%. except for the set mining thing.