Select Page
Poker Forum
Over 1,257,000 Posts!
Poker ForumSmall Stakes NL Hold'em

25NL Facing River raise with backdoor flush

Results 1 to 10 of 10
  1. #1

    Default 25NL Facing River raise with backdoor flush

    Don't have much info on villain, seems like a solid reg; hasn't gotten out of line in a small sample size. I think 22/TT/KJ/QT/a few flushes are all reasonable holdings for him. We don't block many of his backdoor flush draws though. Are you folding or calling river here?

    Table: (PRR) Ettin (Short) - 3

    Seats: 9
    Seat 1: Emcee Lew ($12.50)
    Seat 2: Lignar ($4.72)
    Seat 3: KittensAreCute ($43.76)
    Seat 4: Lovetowin ($14.06)
    Seat 5: devonx702 ($18.67)
    Seat 6: batik555 ($18.75)
    Seat 7: Parcker ($22.65)
    Seat 8: ciphon ($1.85)
    Button is seat 3
    Lovetowin: posts small blind $0.10
    devonx702: posts big blind $0.25
    *** HOLE CARDS ***
    devonx702: dealt [5s 4s]
    batik555: folds
    Parcker: folds
    ciphon: folds
    Emcee Lew: folds
    Lignar: folds
    KittensAreCute: raises $0.75
    Lovetowin: folds
    devonx702: calls $0.50
    *** FLOP *** [6h As Qc]
    devonx702: checks
    KittensAreCute: checks
    *** TURN *** [6h As Qc] [2s]
    devonx702: bets $1.25
    KittensAreCute: calls $1.25
    *** RIVER *** [6h As Qc] [2s] [Ts]
    devonx702: bets $2.75
    KittensAreCute: raises $8
    devonx702: calls $5.25
  2. #2
    Razvan729's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2010
    Posts
    1,135
    Location
    Bucuresti, Romania
    1. You play short. Stack up or move to 10nl/ 5nl, depending on BR
    2. Fold pre. Calling too wide in BB vs LP is much worse then folding 95% vs LP
    3. Your flush is beat by all his flushes and in BTN he has ghem nearly all. Anyway, because of the strenght of our hand i would prefer c/c river. In this spot , they betting range when we check is a lot wider then theyr calling/raising range.
    Last edited by Razvan729; 05-23-2017 at 12:48 AM.
    All posts are just my own opinion about a hand or a general situation... not advices on how you should play...
  3. #3
    griffey24's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2006
    Posts
    6,388
    Location
    Toronto'ish
    Fold pre.
    Call river, he can be value towning himself with worse (two pair/sets/straights)
    Quote Originally Posted by Jay-Z
    I'm a couple hands down and I'm tryin' to get back
    I gave the other grip, I lost a flip for five stacks
  4. #4
    Razvan729's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2010
    Posts
    1,135
    Location
    Bucuresti, Romania
    I for one, think river is a fold. He is betting flop w/ any Ax, 66 / QQ,since BB more then often will c/c Ax and Most times Qx and gutshots. In my opinion BTN calles turn w/ flush draws/ KJ/KT and Qx, maybe some wwak Aces that he checked flop. I think TT is loose. As for river raise, donț think he will value himself w/ worse ,enough times to make IT a call vs his numerous flush combos. Just my opinion
    All posts are just my own opinion about a hand or a general situation... not advices on how you should play...
  5. #5
    OngBonga's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Posts
    16,068
    Location
    England
    Fold pre. Either c/c or b/f river. I think the only bluff he has is KK, and anything worse than a flush is a bluff. I'm expecting to see the nuts fairly often here.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  6. #6
    I'll agree with the consensus to fold pre.

    I'll also agree with this...
    Fold pre.
    Call river, he can be value towning himself with worse (two pair/sets/straights)
    Everything else in this thread....WTF?????

    If he's a "solid reg", then the standard play here after we check is to bet. Our range just flatting in the BB is huge, and the A is such a polarizing card that he's missing a hugely hugely profitable c-bet by checking the flop. To me, that indicates that he has some kind of hand. Ax and Qx being most likely in my opinion.

    He's either checking with a big hand to trap, or he's checking with a medium-ish to pot control and realize his show-down value. Heads up, btn vs blind, Ax and Qx have plenty of showdown value.

    His flat on the turn kind of eliminates the big hand trap (no sets). By not c-betting the flop, and by not raising the turn, he's really eliminated alot of flush draws from his range. I'd expect a bluff on at least one of those two streets.

    Our range is chock-full of single pair hands and they far outnumber the potential flush draws we might have. If he rivered two pair, or a set, he would be a fool not to raise.

    As played, we have to call $5.25 and the pot has $14.75 in it. We need 26%

    Let's be monumentally generous and give him some flush combos. How about KQ, KJ, K9, K8, K7, K6, K3, QJ, Q9, Q8, Q7, J9, J8, J7, 98, 97, 96, 87, 86, and 63ss. That's 20 flush combos that he could have.

    If he has 20 hands that can beat us, then we need him to have approximately 7 or 8 hands that we can beat in order to have at least the 26% that we need to call. In other words, if he has 8 combos that we can beat, that's 8 out of 28 possible hands, 8/28 > 26%. Call.

    AT and QT are 18 hands. Snap this shit off.

    In a live game, I bet/fold here. But that's because people are showdown monkeys and calling stations. If that's you're read, then fold. But if he's a 'solid reg' online, then you're beating a hell of a lot more than 26% of his range.
    Last edited by BananaStand; 05-25-2017 at 09:34 AM.
  7. #7
    Razvan729's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2010
    Posts
    1,135
    Location
    Bucuresti, Romania
    BB flatting range vs a 3bb open BTN that hasnt got out of line is not huge,If it is, then BB has a preflop problem.
    If BB flatting range is huge, then BTN will not check back flop w/ TP +, If he does then he will raise turn w/ TP+, when he doenst he's range is caped at draws and Qx. Raising that river on that board after BB makes 2strong bets w/ QT or a bluff is just dumb,we have no info to sustain that. KJ may raise river vs BB sets and 2pair, but more then often he will just call. 26% needed just to be 0 EV is huge in this spot vs a river raise.
    All posts are just my own opinion about a hand or a general situation... not advices on how you should play...
  8. #8
    BankItDrew's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2005
    Posts
    8,300
    Location
    Losing Prop Bets
    Quote Originally Posted by OngBonga View Post
    Fold pre. Either c/c or b/f river. I think the only bluff he has is KK, and anything worse than a flush is a bluff. I'm expecting to see the nuts fairly often here.
    +1
  9. #9
    Quote Originally Posted by Razvan729 View Post
    BB flatting range vs a 3bb open BTN that hasnt got out of line is not huge,If it is, then BB has a preflop problem.
    Ok, maybe "huge" was a little hyperbolic. Put numbers on it if you prefer. How many hands are in our range? 10%, 20%? Or a better question, is how many hands might the villain expect us to have in our calling range? I can't imagine we're talking anything less than 200-250 hands.

    If BB flatting range is huge, then BTN will not check back flop w/ TP +
    Does not compute. He would be more apt to bet when we are less likely to fold. It's a rainbow board with dismal straight possibilities. If he c-bets with say AT or QT.....from what hands would he expect to get value?

    If he does then he will raise turn w/ TP+, when he doenst he's range is caped at draws and Qx.
    False. Again, why would he raise our turn lead with AT or QT. By what hands does expect to be called? What % of our range do those hands represent?

    Raising that river on that board after BB makes 2strong bets w/ QT or a bluff is just dumb,we have no info to sustain that
    I agree that raising the river as a bluff would be dumb. But two pair or a rivered set of Tens would be dumb to just flat.

    KJ may raise river vs BB sets and 2pair, but more then often he will just call.
    If that's how you would play KJ here, you're missing ALOT of value.

    26% needed just to be 0 EV is huge in this spot vs a river raise.
    Now you're the one being hyperbolic with the word "huge". I've already illustrated the math for you. It's undeniable. Even if I'm super generous and give the guy 20 possible flush combos, including some absolutely absurd ones like K3, Q7, and 63, then he only needs 8 combos of something else to make the call profitable.

    AT and QT are 18 hands. If he has half of those you're into +EV territory. I don't think that A2 or 22 are entirely out ruled out either.

    I wonder about your definition of "solid reg" if you expect the guy to play like a passive fishy calling station from the BTN in a heads up pot.
  10. #10
    BigSlickBaby's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2014
    Posts
    241
    Location
    USA (New York)
    Was almost positive I was going to see several "fold pre"s on this one. I'm finally starting to learn to just fold spots where I like the "idea" of what my cards might be able to produce instead of just looking at their relative value, the table dynamics, and my position. I've wound up folding so many hands that I've then see run out to where I would have gotten myself into serious trouble with a marginal hand. It's best to just avoid these spots entirely, especially in the micros. There's just not enough long term value there, in my opinion. I mean, there's a time and place for every hand. That's the point. The hand you played in the OP was not in the right time or place. Just fold it.
    Shove dick in their mouth, then I'm out...

    - Snoop Do-double-g, bitch.

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •