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25nl: Decent River Bluff?

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  1. #1

    Default 25nl: Decent River Bluff?

    What do you guys think of this bluff? I can have AK, KK, AA here which villain can't. I can also have 99, 98hh and some suited ace two pair combos too, which villain doesn't have a lot of. I think if I'm therefore having bluff combos in my range then 65hh is one of the best candidates - thoughts?

    Villain is average tag reg and I get the impression he's one of those regs that hates me. My image is lag pre but not too crazy post flop when I have initiative - my barrel stats aren't particularly high and in the low 50 percents for all three streets.

    Party, $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
    Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

    SB: $56.62 (226.5 bb)
    Hero (BB): $93.48 (373.9 bb)
    UTG: $26.10 (104.4 bb)
    MP: $25 (100 bb)
    CO: $31.35 (125.4 bb)
    BTN: $25 (100 bb)

    Preflop: Hero is BB with 5 6
    2 folds, CO raises to $0.75, 2 folds, Hero raises to $2.35, CO calls $1.60

    Flop: ($4.80) 9 K A (2 players)
    Hero bets $2.80, CO calls $2.80

    Turn: ($10.40) 8 (2 players)
    Hero bets $5.65, CO calls $5.65

    River: ($21.70) 3 (2 players)
    Hero bets $82.68 and is all-in,
  2. #2
    I think this is the best choice of hand to choose for bluffing with here

    You literally block none of villains folding range which is pretty sweet and like you said, this run-out favors your range.
  3. #3
    I think this hand would be super interesting from villain's pov.

    I would normally fold out, say A6s, both pre flop and at turn probably, certainly to river shove, but I can make the occasional call down for a stack of this size if there's relevant history that I figure boosts my equity. I like hero's line against anyone we figure can fold top pair to big aggression, but I suspect villain hero calls Ax, and as such it might be the case that hero could have anticipated a big river call given the read that hero is loosish pre and that villain has a disliking for hero, and so I would obviously not hate giving up at the river.
    Last edited by OngBonga; 07-27-2015 at 02:02 PM.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  4. #4
    Even though you think your image is lag pre and solid post, I think most ppl will just view the lag pre part and assume you are wide here. Wide enough that I don`t think you can count on too many folds of AQ or AJ which I think you need folds from to make this profitable.

    What's villains CO open and fold to 3b? Does he call all Axs here pre? Obviously the more Ax/Kx he can have, the more I think this will work.
    Quote Originally Posted by Jay-Z
    I'm a couple hands down and I'm tryin' to get back
    I gave the other grip, I lost a flip for five stacks
  5. #5
    Yes, you are representing AA, KK, AK. But does villian know you 3bet bluff with suited connectors? From if the answer is no, then its clear for villian that you have AA, KK or AK. Also I have another question: do you know if villian is capable of slowplayng pre KK and/or AA?
    As regards villian, I going to put a range on him: he calls pre with 88-QQ (I'm being extremist, I see people who in this situation call and not 3bet), AJ+
    On the flop, the only hands that call are 99, AK, AQ and AJ. Lets assume that villian calls the turn with this same range. Now the question is: Is he capable of laying down AQ and AJ here? I personally would, but does depend on villian. If he is folding these hands, then yes it will be profitable. There are 3 combos of 99, 9 combos of AK, and 12 combos of AQ and AJ each. If he is foldin AQ and AJ he would be folding 66,7% of his range which makes the bluff ev+, but with all these assumptions. If the villian might slowplay AA or KK then its a different story
  6. #6
    Ohhh I forgot one more thing. Instead of pushing the river which is almost a pot sized bet you can bet 75-80% which I think would have the same effect, and you save some bucks on the times you loose, and make the move more ev+, and of course fold if he pushes.
  7. #7
    Well you certainly represented a strong hand! Very nice bluff, no fear!
  8. #8
    Also - I think ppl go a little crazy trying to rep strength on AKx boards, cause it looks like they have more value hands. But assuming in a 3b pot we will be tripling AK for value (which we should, assuming some non-scary runout)

    AKx board - 15 value hands from premiums (AA - 3, KK - 3, AK - 9)
    Axx board - 15 value hands from premiums (AA - 3 , AK - 12)

    So really the boards are the same difference imo.
    Quote Originally Posted by Jay-Z
    I'm a couple hands down and I'm tryin' to get back
    I gave the other grip, I lost a flip for five stacks
  9. #9
    I think there's a small difference in that we have a slight range advantage on AKx boards because villain has more AJ+ to call off with (there are also more times we totally cooler his AK)
    Playing big pots at small stakes.
  10. #10
    ^^ the above assumes that villain will flat AK at least some of the time.
    Playing big pots at small stakes.
  11. #11
    Renton's Avatar
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    Jan 2006
    a little town called none of your goddamn business
    You need to size up a bit on the turn so the river shove isn't this large. Your betting range on the turn is going to consist mostly of hands that will have >90% equity or <10% equity on rivers, so game theory says that you need to be betting similar percentages of pot on turn and river, unless you have a specific exploit-related reason to deviate.

    As for the river, it's probably a reasonable bluffing spot. Generally, busted flush draws tend to be poor river 3-barreling hands because they have anti-blockers, but in this case you only block a few flush draws he could have, unless he's calling preflop with Qh6h. You block 9h6h, 8h6h, 7h6, 6h5h, 6h4h, 7h5h, and 5h4h, some of which might not call pre from the CO. I think you would slightly prefer to have a broadway gutter with no heart, and most prefer to have T7/76 with no heart.

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