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10NLZ - Flop Raise in 3bet Pot

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  1. #1

    Default 10NLZ - Flop Raise in 3bet Pot

    Villain is 16/14 over 66 hands 10% 3bet (3/30)
    Villain had 4bet 2/3 3bets (2/2 at the time)

    UTG ($10.85) 109bb
    UTG+1 ($10.05) 101bb
    CO ($8.51) 85bb
    BTN ($10) 100bb
    SB ($10.57) 106bb
    Hero (BB) ($10) 100bb

    Pre-Flop: ($0.15, 6 players) Hero is BB K A
    2 folds, CO calls $0.10, BTN raises to $0.40, 1 fold, Hero raises to $1.20, CO folds, BTN calls $0.80

    Flop: 8 9 K ($2.55, 2 players)
    Hero bets ?, BTN raises to some standard amount

    I'm not interested in any discussion about pre-flop unless someone thinks there is a huge sizing problem.

    Two questions are
    1) c-bet sizing in this situation, what do we think is best and why?

    2) When villain raises what range do we put him on and what do we think the best line to take is?

    Not looked at the hand properly myself yet, will post thoughts below soon.
  2. #2
    Join Date
    Aug 2007
    soaking up ethanol, moving on up
    Interesting spot. Fold. He isn't bluffing with less than 35% very often in this spot and has most combos/nut value hands in his range.
    i like $1.60 here, I normally cbet 35%-60% pot in 3bet pot situations, more when my range is really strong on a scary board.
    When villain raises it's pretty sigh-fold vs a nit cos even when you're ahead you're not much better than flipping, it's worth noting he's expecting you to have a hand stronger than KQ a lot of the time and that you're likely to think he's got a lot of draws in his range.
    Realistically [KK+, 88/99/TJs/KcQc/AcKc/KcJc/KcTc/QcTc/AcQc/QcJc/89s] are all big in his range.
  3. #3
    Could be a personal preference, but I think 3x OOP is somewhat small for a 3b. I would make it closer to 1.50-1.60 pre.

    I'd prob size flop to triple barrel. So something around $0.90, $2.00 turn and shove river.

    Also after betting so small on flop, never folding to a raise. Always jamming.
    Quote Originally Posted by Jay-Z
    I'm a couple hands down and I'm tryin' to get back
    I gave the other grip, I lost a flip for five stacks
  4. #4
    I think saying a 16/14 is nitty after 66 hands is a bit false. I usually run at like 22/18ish and there are lots of times I see myself with stats like that in a session.

    If I give villain a 3bet calling range of something like {55-JJ, AJs+, AQo+, KJs+, KQo, QTs+, 78s+} that's 88 combos and I have 72% equity, of these hands

    Combos that crush me
    {9h9d, 9s9d, 9s9h, 8h8d, 8s8d, 8s8h, AcKc, 9h8h, 9d8d, 9s8s} (10) 11.79% equity

    Flipping against
    {AsKs, AhKc, AhKs, AcKs, AsKc} (5) 48.64% equity

    Hands w/25-50% equity against me not already included.
    {AcQc, AcJc, KcQc, KcJc, QcJc, QcTc, JhTh, JdTd, JsTs, Th9h, 8h7h} (11) 61.38% equity

    Other hands villain will defend
    {JJ, TT, KsQs, KsJs, KcQh, KcQd, KcQs, KsQh, KsQc, KsQd} (20) 84.46 equity

    In total that's villain defending a total of 46 combos, 46/88 = 52.3% of his range.

    Of the hands that villain isn't defending in that range the only hand he may be tempted to turn into a bluff would be AQo imo and I'm going to assume that villain isn't really the type to be bluffing all that often.

    I also think that of the hands that I haven't chosen villain is going to be stretched to want to defend any wider. I also don't think villain is going to have any problems chasing his draws and calling his Kx, the only problem with sizing it big may be that I fold out TT & JJ. So I think a larger than usual c-bet is in order, about 60-65% would probably be best.

    I'll have a think about at what point this sizing becomes bad as villain shoves more and more. It was kind of on the assumption villain only shoves about 10% (the crush range) but as more and more flushes are added to his range it may become bad.
    Last edited by Savy; 03-30-2014 at 12:00 AM.

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