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Originally Posted by PokerKing
A new year, and I've decided to give cash game another try, but as I don't have as much time as I'm supposed to put into this, I've decided to start from the bottom at NL2, and just play for some fun
I would like to hear opinions on this hand:
PokerStars - $0.02 NL - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4
BTN: $0.89 (VPIP: 20.00, PFR: 10.00, 3Bet Preflop: 20.00, Hands: 10)
SB: $2.86 (VPIP: 29.17, PFR: 20.83, 3Bet Preflop: 14.29, Hands: 24)
BB: $1.27 (VPIP: 18.75, PFR: 6.25, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 17)
UTG: $0.66 (VPIP: 100.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: -, Hands: 1)
UTG+1: $2.00 (VPIP: 20.00, PFR: 5.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 20)
Hero (MP): $2.02
MP+1: $3.48 (VPIP: 16.95, PFR: 10.17, 3Bet Preflop: 6.67, Hands: 59)
MP+2: $2.72 (VPIP: 14.29, PFR: 7.27, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 58)
CO: $2.78 (VPIP: 27.27, PFR: 18.18, 3Bet Preflop: 20.00, Hands: 11)
SB posts SB $0.01, BB posts BB $0.02
Pre Flop: (pot: $0.03) Hero has Q Q
UTG calls $0.02, UTG+1 raises to $0.07, Hero raises to $0.20, fold, fold, fold, fold, SB calls $0.19, BB calls $0.18, fold, UTG+1 calls $0.13
Flop: ($0.82, 4 players) 9 6 3
SB bets $0.50, fold, fold, Hero raises to $1.82 and is all-in, SB calls $1.32
Turn: ($4.46, 2 players) 6
River: ($4.46, 2 players) 9
SB shows A A (Two Pair, Aces and Nines) (Pre 82%, Flop 87%, Turn 95%)
Hero mucks Q Q (Two Pair, Queens and Nines) (Pre 18%, Flop 13%, Turn 5%)
SB wins $4.30
Questions:
1. Am I in my full right to be surprised when I see Villian turn over AA? I would have 4-better, even sitting with KK
2. I was hoping for him to have JJ or TT, and just crossed my fingers that he haven't hit a set. Can I lay this down, or just call him all the way?
fish are weird,they do things like this, sometimes if board is dry they will x/shove with AA on say a 962r. I think these are the spots where other fish will make enough mistakes to make up for it. (when they flat a 3bet OOP and donk lead) he probably has a range of donking hands, which surprisingly don't include a lot of FDs. mostly hands that are scared of a check back. which would be TT+, we have 49% vs that range. if we add TP hands like T9s,98s etc. we have 53%. if he only donks pair+ T9hh,98hh, were back to 49%. at first seems like super standard shove but after some calcs its looking rough. this is also making some pretty big assumptions about villains game so im going to lean towards its a marginally +EV shove. I don't think you will lose $$ longrun shoving because villain does have a b/f range, air range as well so marginal is ok.
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