[5NL] QJo OTB wall of text

Lolololol here's another wall of text. Posting here mostly just helps me keep my thoughts organized... plus the threat of someone reading them and thinking they're dumb motivates me to think a little harder.


MP: $4.93 (98.6 bb) {20/9, 2/2 fold to 3b, 3/3 fold to CB, 122 hands, based on VPIP stats seems somewhat positionally aware}
CO: $3.13 (62.6 bb)
Hero (BTN): $5 (100 bb)
SB: $7.29 (145.8 bb)
BB: $5 (100 bb)
UTG: $4.88 (97.6 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BTN with J Q
UTG folds, MP raises to $0.15, CO folds, Hero raises to $0.45, 2 folds, MP calls $0.30

Flop: ($0.97) T 6 9 (2 players)
MP checks, Hero bets $0.75, MP calls $0.75

Turn: ($2.47) 2 (2 players)
MP checks, Hero checks

River: ($2.47) 3 (2 players)
MP bets $0.30, Hero folds

There's a couple different lines I could've taken here. I could've called pre. I could've bet smaller OTF. I could've barreled the turn. I could've raised the weak bet OTR.



Pre:
I think his opening range pre probably looks something like:

88+,AJs+,KQs,AQo+ (64 combos)

He's a generally tight/passive player. I think his range for calling pre looks something like:

TT-88, KhKs, KdKc, KsKc, QdQh, QdQs, QhQs, JdJh, JdJc, JhJc, AKs, AKo (37 combos, I left out half the combos of KK to account for the times that he 4b with it)

I don't think he'll 4b anything but AA, maybe some KK. We left him 3 combos to 4b with.

AA, KdKh, KdKs, KhKc (9 combos)

It's worth noting that for pre here based on this analysis I only have like 28% fold equity while this bet, in a vacuum, needs 67% fold equity to work. Perhaps it would be better to save our bluffing vs. him for spots where he's likely to be opening a bit wider, say OTB or maybe the CO.

As far as our range goes here, I don't expect him to be adjusting much or very effectively, therefore based on the fact that he's NOT folding an exploitable amount in this spot we probably just shouldn't be bluffing here. So our range is going to look something like:

3b value: QQ+
Call: 66-JJ, suited broadways, KQo, AJs+, AQo+ (a little more unsure on the calling range for this spot)
3b bluff: none
Fold: everything else

It's worth noting that at the time my thinking when 3betting here was that I wouldn't really like to call with this hand which puts it right below my calling range which makes it a good candidate to 3b bluff.



Flop:
So at this point before any action we have him at:

TT-88, KhKs, KdKc, KsKc, QdQh, QdQs, QhQs, JdJh, JdJc, JhJc, AKs, AKo (37 combos)

I would expect him to check/call everything he wishes to continue with as he is a generally passive player. I can see him folding his air and underpairs, NFD, sets, overpairs continue I think.

TT-99,KhKs,KdKc,KsKc,QdQh,QdQs,QhQs,JdJh,JdJc,JhJc,As Ks (16 combos)

This leaves us with 57% fold equity, and 31.25% when called. In a vacuum this yields us a positive expectation. One of the other lines we though we had on the flop was to CB smaller. My thinking at the time was probably something along the lines of "this is a wet board. I need to CB bigger to deny his odds to draws." However based on our analysis he doesn't have that many draws to begin with anyways, so I would expect a smaller bet to not effect our fold equity by much.

These calcs are placing this action in a vacuum and don't account for subsequent bets/streets.

(0.57)(0.97)+(0.43)(0.3125)(1.72)-(0.43)(0.6875)(0.75) = 0.56

Whereas if we used a smaller sizing, say 0.55:

(0.57)(0.97)+(0.43)(0.3125)(1.52)-(0.43)(0.6875)(0.55) = 0.60

We see the smaller sizing yields a higher EV when bluffing (seems pretty intuitive..) when our opponent's range isn't affected by our sizing.



Turn:
We checked here which I think is our best option, but lets explore betting just for our own benefit. Things are a bit murky here as to what he's going to continue to another bet with. I would hazard a guess that he's not folding any of his

TT-99,KhKs,KdKc,KsKc,QdQh,QdQs,QhQs,JdJh,JdJc,JhJc,As Ks (16 combos)

especially not those overpairs that have spades. Lets give ourselves a little fold equity and say he folds the overpairs that don't have spades. To a bet of about 2/3 pot, he should continue with:

TT-99,KhKs,KsKc,QdQs,QhQs,AsKs (11 combos)

Which means we have 31% fold equity, and 22% equity when called. Lets compare the EV of checking vs. betting, assuming no further bets go into the pot.

CHECKING
(2.47)(0.3125) = 0.77

BETTING
(0.31)(2.47)+(0.69)(0.22)(4.12)-(0.69)(0.78)(1.65) = 0.50

Checking carries other benefits with it as well: minimizes risk in the face of an uncertain opponent continuing range when we bet and pot control.



River:
Opponent bets weak. To me this feels like an overpair, I think he'd likely bet way bigger with the nut flush, or a set because it's pretty unlikely I have a set or better when I check back the turn. So based on our analysis he's got:

KhKs,KsKc,QdQs,QhQs

We have zero equity at showdown. Our only way to win the pot is to bluff raise. It's really hard to say whether or not he'll call or fold those hands, plus there's the uncertainty factor in his range in that he could be doing this with a set or the nut flush. Not to mention we look weak to begin with because we checked back the turn. For those reasons I think folding here is best.

I'd usually call this pre, but raising is gonna be ok now and then I'd have thought.

Flop is fine, I'd definitely be betting this flop as 3better. Had I called pre, I'd be raising his cbet.

Turn, I guess I check this back. We pick up more outs vs some of his range, but we're dead to the top of his range. So checking back to peel a free river is fine.

River, this bet of his sucks. I want to raise. wtf is he value betting at this size? Bearing in mind our range contains stuff like KK/AA, this is not a value bet. He's got a piece of shit draw that missed, or some crappy middle pair that he doesn't want to pay you off too much with when he loses. Therefore I want to raise him, because I think his range is now very weak and can't stand any heat. I expect him to fold the vast majority of the time, and if he calls middle pair or some shit, well we get a valuable note and he thinks we're a bluffer, so we can adjust vs him to exploit him heavily. If he comes over the top, well we make a note that he makes stupid bets at river with nutty hands.

Folding is obviously not gonna be bad at river, seeing as we have queen high. But I don't want to fold to this bet, and we obviously can't call.

for 6max 20/9 its a nit.i could say even more then i am.
i dont know what to say about the 3b/seems the wrong move here.
i would call river for that price and get the info on him.

Agree with razvan.

Would you 3b a 12/9 player? I'd say a 20/9 player has an even stronger opening range, cause a 12/9 player is a nit but at least appears to come in mostly for a raise while a 20/9 is content to limp in but is still raising. So even if this layer was deviating wider than norm, his deviation is more likely to be a limp rather than raise. I'd rather fold pre than 3b pre.

As played, this is a horrible one and done board. Most of hands are continuing on flop. All KQ/KJ are probably peeling, QJ, JT, 9T, most pockets might even peel (77-88 stuff), 78 etc. A lot of this flop continuing range is folding to pressure. I'd fire two or three barrels here, or play pre differently.