[5NL] AQo UTG in depth

BTN: $12.50 (250 bb)
SB: $5.28 (105.6 bb) {56/19, 2/3 fold to CB, 0 3b, 35 hands}
BB: $4.88 (97.6 bb)
Hero (MP): $13.62 (272.4 bb)
CO: $9.89 (197.8 bb) {83/21, 1/4 fold to CB, 2/14 3b, 47 hands}

Preflop: Hero is MP with A Q
Hero raises to $0.15, CO calls $0.15, BTN folds, SB calls $0.13, BB folds

Flop: ($0.50) 7 A 5 (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $0.42, CO calls $0.42, SB folds

Turn: ($1.34) 7 (2 players)
Hero bets $0.80, CO calls $0.80

River: ($2.94) 2 (2 players)
Hero bets $1.60, CO raises to $7.60, Hero calls $6

So I did a bit of in depth analysis on this one and thought I'd post it to get some feedback if/when anyone has time.


PRE
Not really much to say here, especially with the two huge fish at the table. Obv should be folding to a 3b if that happens.


FLOP
So this is a pretty standard bet for value, villain(s) should be calling something like:

Board: 7hAc5c
Equity Win Tie
Hero 72.41% 70.84% 1.57% { AdQc }
CO 27.59% 26.02% 1.57% { JJ-77, 55, AQs-A2s, K7s, Q7s, J7s, T7s, 97s, 86s+, 74s+, 64s, KcJc, KcTc, JcTc, Kc9c, Jc9c, Tc9c, Kc8c, Jc8c, Tc8c, 9c8c, Kc6c, Jc6c, Tc6c, 9c6c, Jc5c, Tc5c, Kc4c, Jc4c, Kc3c, 4c3c, Kc2c, 3c2c, AQo-A2o, K7o, Q7o, J7o, T7o, 97o, 86o+, 75o+, 64o }

Basically dominated aces, flush and straight draws, 2nd pair a lot of the time, I think he likely 3bets QQ+ AK the vast majority of the time so he doesn't have those. So a pretty standard value bet.


TURN
Obviously we’re now behind a fair bit of the time now, 7x gets there, flush draws get there. However he's unlikely to fold his Ax to another bet and he picks up one or two flush draws as well with 88-JJ, also we pick up a flush draw as well.

So his continuing range to another bet should look something like:

Board: 7hAc5c7c
Equity Win Tie
Hero 53.06% 49.05% 4.00% { AdQc }
CO 46.94% 42.94% 4.00% { 77, 55, JdJc, JhJc, JsJc, TdTc, ThTc, TsTc, 9d9c, 9h9c, 9s9c, 8d8c, 8h8c, 8s8c, AQs-A2s, K7s, Q7s, J7s, T7s, 97s, 87s, 74s+, KcQc, KcJc, KcTc, JcTc, Kc9c, Jc9c, Tc9c, Kc8c, Jc8c, Tc8c, 9c8c, Kc6c, Jc6c, Tc6c, 9c6c, 8c6c, Kc4c, Jc4c, 6c4c, Kc3c, 4c3c, Kc2c, 3c2c, AQo-A2o, K7o, Q7o, J7o, T7o, 97o, 87o, 75o+ }

This is about as tight as his range should get I think, by that I mean there's a level of uncertainty in what he will or will not spazz call with so I like a bet here for value as his range can only get wider.


RIVER
I like another bet for value here as I think he'll crying call a lot of his weaker flushes, maybe even some of his 7x and Ax, so this should be a slam dunk value bet. I sized it as I did to get a call from these hands.

However when we get raised things get a bit iffy. We need 33% to make a profitable call here.

I think his raising range should look something like:

Board: 7hAc5c7c2c
Equity Win Tie
Hero 30.30% 30.30% 0.00% { AdQc }
CO 69.70% 69.70% 0.00% { 77, 55, JdJc, JhJc, JsJc, A7s, 75s, KcQc, KcJc, KcTc, JcTc, Kc9c, Jc9c, Kc8c, Jc8c, Kc6c, Jc6c, 8c5c, 6c5c, Kc4c, Jc4c, Kc3c, Kc2c, A7o, 75o, AdQc, AhQc, AsQc, AdJc, AhJc, AsJc, Kc7d, Kc7h, Kc7s }

Again there's a level of uncertainty here. I think this should be a fold, and that's even if he raises the Jc. To make this a call he needs to raise the Tc as well and I'm honestly not sure if he even raises the Jc to begin with. Can he ever just be freaking out here?



Anyways, I'd appreciate any feedback or thoughts anyone has if they get through that massive wall of text.

Thanks

mury o rama,

first yeah bout the wall of text i really dont mind but it will take me time to go street by street for the whole hand, so for future advice, just start at pre w/ a queston, and then post the flop later in the post . same with the turn etc.

just because yoour going to get better more focused advice on each problem your dealing with here. on that note. gimme a min and i will be back to you w my thoughts on your wall of text lol

Aah okay sorry I will do that in the future. My idea here was just to get feedback on my overall thought process and the accuracy of the ranges I've assigned to villain.

I really do appreciate you (and/or anyone else) taking time out of their day to provide feedback.

That's all sorts of scary for such a passive whale.

A player like this is honestly probably peeling all KcJ, KcT type nonsense on the flop.
Someone fishy passive is also more likely to show up with a boat after calling flop than a standard reg.

This is probably close, and likely a fold the more Kcx type hands he peels on the flop. People just don't bluff here imo.

i think its a fold to that raise on the river .....looking more like a boat or Kc than anything that we beat.

It depends about the villain. I don't know does he is the tight player or maybe he is a bluffer, so for my opinion your move will depend about that. In other case about the first look of this hand I think that it will be better if you go fold on the river, than to call. However, I will tell you again that your move depend about the villain history play, and about that is he a tight player or a bluffer.