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[2NL] AA Thin Turn Shove?

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  1. #1

    Default [2NL] AA Thin Turn Shove?

    FullFlush - $0.02 NL (Full Ring) - Holdem - 10 players

    UTG: $2.05
    UTG+1: $3.11
    UTG+2: $2.17
    MP1: $1.50
    MP2: $2.03
    HIJACK: $3.52
    CUTOFF: $4.01
    BTN: $2.15
    Hero (SB): $1.95
    BB: $1.30

    SB posts $0.01, BB posts $0.02

    Pre Flop: (pot: $0.03) Hero has Ad As

    folds around to (UTG+1), UTG+1 bets $0.08, UTG+2 folds, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, HIJACK folds, CUTOFF folds, BTN folds, Hero raises to $0.28, BB folds, UTG+1 calls $0.28

    Flop: ($0.59, 2 players) 8h 10c 3s
    UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $0.40, UTG+1 calls $0.40

    Turn: ($1.39, 2 players) Jh
    UTG+1 checks, Hero ?

    Notes that I had on Villain prior to this hand: In terms of his Pre-Flop Opening Ranges, Villain was a loose Reg. unaware of position that roughly opened the same Wide Range (the bottom of his range consisting of suited 3 gappers) from all positions. He also called 3-Bets at a high frequency. With this in mind, after my 3-Bet and his call, I assigned Villian the following Range: 67s – 910s/79s – Q10s/710s – Q9s/J10 - K10/Broadways/22 – JJ/A10 – AQ. Lastly, he was very sticky on the Flop (Gutters, Mid-Pairs, etc.), but folded the weaker part of his Range to any Turn Aggression.

    My intention Post-Flop was to C-Bet the vast majority of Boards with a Sizing that set me up for a Pot Sized Shove on any safe Turn. However, the Jh gave me a moment of pause in that it hits his Flop Calling Range that I am now behind (Combos of 79h/J8s/J10/Q9h/JJ). However, he could also continue with A Stronger Range that I beat (710h/QJ/910h/9Js) and possibly continue with a slightly Weaker Range that more than likely finds a fold (67h/Q10/K10/A10). Is this enough to warrant shoving the Turn? Is a Check/Call, Check/Fold or Smaller Bet/Fold line a better way to proceed on the Turn?
    Any additional advice, thoughts and opinions would be greatly appreciated. Thanks in advance everyone.
  2. #2
    MadMojoMonkey's Avatar
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    Can you please clarify the positions of Hero and Villain?

    You have that Hero is SB and yet Hero is not acting first post-flop.


    With this in mind, is the rest of the info in the HH correct?
  3. #3
    I would probably bet the flop a little bigger so as to ensure the turn shove is easier for him to call, but I don't want to blow him out of the flop either, so 50c max for me. As played, yeah still shoving. Sure some of his hands just got there, but there's still plenty he calls that we beat. He's not folding any Thxh/J9/9T/89/JQ/99... I don't see that he has all that much we lose to... 33/88/TT/JJ/JT/J8/Q9, arguably he 3bets TT/JJ... when you consider that he could fistpump call a weak pair hoping to see AK, and I don't see what else, especially considering there's so many rivers we hate. Being in by turn is easily the most favourable outcome for us here I would have thought.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  4. #4
    Quote Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey View Post
    Can you please clarify the positions of Hero and Villain?
    Yeah good spot, I didn't pay any attention to that and just read the HH.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  5. #5
    If we're out of position, I definitely shove the turn.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  6. #6
    I think the turn shove is fine, but not a fist pump jam. You're right that villain has a ton of pair plus draw hands in his range that will (and probably should) call the turn jam, plus we don't want to give that part of his range a free card. He shouldn't have many straights here, but he has all the sets and a small amount of 2 pair combos that we have outs against. We may get looked up by some 10x too.

    Do you have a program like equilab btw? Worth downloading if not to see what your equity ilooks like in these spots vs villain's likely calling range.
  7. #7
    I apologize. I definitely mistyped the Post-Flop action. Thanks for catching that. The rest of the HH is correct other than Post-Flop. Here is the correction:
    Flop: ($0.59, 2 players) 8h 10c 3s
    Hero bets $0.40, UTG+1 calls $0.40

    Turn: ($1.39, 2 players) Jh
    Hero ?
  8. #8
    Yeah this is a no brainer for me. We can't let him check behind, there's just too many draws in his range that calls a shove, and there's too many scare rivers that either kill the action or, worse, forces us to fold.

    As for sizing, to be honest it's hard to imagine what he calls flop with and then folds to a turn shove at pot size. I feel like when he calls the flop, the rest of the money is going in on the turn pretty much always. So maybe this sizing is fine. I just find the pot size turn shove to be a little ugly, but really all that matters is that he doesn't fold more of his range when the shove is at pot size compared to an 80% sized shove. I think it probably doesn't matter, that we're always getting the money in when he has a piece of it.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  9. #9
    And yeah I agree this isn't fistpump territory. I'm not happy with the shape my aces are in, but I'm satisfied we're just about ahead of his calling range.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  10. #10
    MadMojoMonkey's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by BroadWheel View Post
    Notes that I had on Villain prior to this hand:
    This is excellent! Always do this!



    You'll be crushing 2NL in no time.

    Quote Originally Posted by BroadWheel View Post
    In terms of his Pre-Flop Opening Ranges, Villain was a loose Reg. unaware of position that roughly opened the same Wide Range (the bottom of his range consisting of suited 3 gappers) from all positions. He also called 3-Bets at a high frequency. With this in mind, after my 3-Bet and his call, I assigned Villian the following Range: 67s – 910s/79s – Q10s/710s – Q9s/J10 - K10/Broadways/22 – JJ/A10 – AQ. Lastly, he was very sticky on the Flop (Gutters, Mid-Pairs, etc.), but folded the weaker part of his Range to any Turn Aggression.
    Given this, I have his range PRE as
    { JJ-22,ATs+,KTs+,Q9s+,J8s+,T7s+,97s+,87s,76s,ATo+,KTo+ ,QTo+,JTo }

    and his range after calling the flop as (101 combos)
    { JJ,99,TdTh,TdTs,ThTs,8d8s,8d8c,8s8c,3d3h,3d3c,3h3c ,QJs,Q9s,J9s,97s,76s,
    AhTh,KdTd,KhTh,KsTs,QdTd,QhTh,QsTs,JdTd,JhTh,JsTs, Td9d,Th9h,Ts9s,Jd8d,
    Js8s,Jc8c,Td8d,Ts8s,9d8d,9s8s,9c8c,Td7d,Th7h,Ts7s, 8d7d,8s7s,8c7c,QJo,AhTd,
    AhTs,AcTd,AcTh,AcTs,KdTh,KdTs,KhTd,KhTs,KsTd,KsTh, KcTd,KcTh,KcTs,QdTh,
    QdTs,QhTd,QhTs,QsTd,QsTh,QcTd,QcTh,QcTs,JdTh,JdTs, JhTd,JhTs,JsTd,JsTh,
    JcTd,JcTh,JcTs }

    That's a bit tedious to make sense of, but there it is.

    After the J comes up on the turn, you have ~56% equity against that range.
    Now, the question is: How much of that will call if you shove?

    Quote Originally Posted by BroadWheel View Post
    My intention Post-Flop was to C-Bet the vast majority of Boards with a Sizing that set me up for a Pot Sized Shove on any safe Turn. However, the Jh gave me a moment of pause in that it hits his Flop Calling Range that I am now behind (Combos of 79h/J8s/J10/Q9h/JJ). However, he could also continue with A Stronger Range that I beat (710h/QJ/910h/9Js) and possibly continue with a slightly Weaker Range that more than likely finds a fold (67h/Q10/K10/A10). Is this enough to warrant shoving the Turn? Is a Check/Call, Check/Fold or Smaller Bet/Fold line a better way to proceed on the Turn?
    Any additional advice, thoughts and opinions would be greatly appreciated. Thanks in advance everyone.
    So now I have this as his range to continue to a flop bet (66 combos)
    { 99,JdJs,JdJc,JsJc,TdTh,TdTs,ThTs,8d8s,8d8c,8s8c,3d 3h,3d3c,3h3c,Q9s,97s,QdJd,
    QsJs,QcJc,AhTh,KhTh,QhTh,JdTd,JsTs,Jd9d,Js9s,Jc9c, Td9d,Th9h,Ts9s,Jd8d,Js8s,
    Jc8c,Td8d,Ts8s,9d8d,9s8s,9c8c,Th7h,7h6h,QdJs,QdJc, QhJd,QhJs,QhJc,QsJd,QsJc,
    QcJd,QcJs,JdTh,JdTs,JsTd,JsTh,JcTd,JcTh,JcTs }

    Here we go:
    Hero shoves for $1.95 - $0.28 - $0.40 = $1.27
    and Villain has him covered
    into a pot of $1.39
    if you win, you will get $1.39 + $1.27 = $2.66

    Odds that Villain folds are ( 101 - 66 )/101 = 35/101 ~= 35%
    Odds that Villain calls are 66/101 ~= 65%

    Using Equilab:
    Equity against Villains calling range is ~= 41%
    So if Villain calls, you expect to lose 100% - 41% = 59%

    EV when you bet and Villain folds = 35% x $1.39 = $0.4865
    EV when you bet, Villain calls and you win = 65% x 41% x $2.66 = $0.7089
    EV when you bet, Villain calls and you lose = 65% x 59% x $-1.27 = $-0.4870

    And the grand total is: $0.4865 + $0.7089 - $0.4870 ~= $0.71

    Which is a positive number or +EV, so the shove is a winning move in the long run (assuming those ranges).

    I can't say with this single calculation whether or not it was your most +EV line. That answer would come by analyzing more hypothetical situations at the decision point and maybe prior. E.g. if you bet $0.45 OTF, does that affect his range? Does that effect give you more or less equity when you shove OTT? All of this is long-term stuff, but it all starts with understanding how to find the EV of any given situation. (Don't expect to be able to do this at the table. This is something to study until it bleeds through into a bigger picture.)

    This should give you a quick guide to figuring out the EV of an all-in shove situation. You can adjust the ranges and re-calculate (which is really easy if you just set up a spreadsheet to do the calc. You will need* an outside program like equilab (free) to calculate the equity. It should let you put in ranges and count the number of combos in that range (like the 101 and the 66 above). Any poker calculator which calculates equity when you put in ranges is fine, but I do like some of the functionality of equilab.

    *You don't strictly need software to do this, but use software to save loads of time.
    Last edited by MadMojoMonkey; 04-20-2016 at 09:31 PM.
  11. #11
    MadMojoMonkey's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by OngBonga View Post
    And yeah I agree this isn't fistpump territory. I'm not happy with the shape my aces are in, but I'm satisfied we're just about ahead of his calling range.
    Dude, it's 2NL

    This is fistpump against a reg/lag who will call OTF with mid pair. The fold equity is important when he continues with 2nd pair OTF.

    EDIT: OK, the mid-pair is probably not the story, here. It's all the draws and gutters that continue, too.
    Last edited by MadMojoMonkey; 04-20-2016 at 09:37 PM.
  12. #12
    It's not fistpump territory because normally I want my aces to be dominant, but here they are not. Even when we're ahead, his pairs have draws and his range in general has quite a lot of equity. It's not often we're going to see him drawing to a maximum of five outs, which is what I call fistpump territory. But I still think we're ahead of his calling range, simply because of all those draws. His hand probably just got much harder to fold.

    I just think we've lost a lot of our pre flop equity, which is why I'm not thrilled about this spot.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  13. #13
    MadMojoMonkey's Avatar
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    Fair enough. Plenty of Hero's EV comes from fold equity.

    It's def. a lovely spot when you can shove OTT and print 35 bb, though.
  14. #14
    Well I don't expect him to fold out anything that is currently beating AA, so fold equity is not really a factor here, other than to say I want less of it, which is why I prefer a smaller turn shove relative to pot.

    I can see by your numbers that our fold equity matches his equity, which is wonderful if correct, because it means that what we win at showdown is all profit. I'm surprised we're winning that much here, tbh. It feels closer, but I'm probably wrong because I'm too lazy to crunch ranges.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  15. #15
    MadMojoMonkey's Avatar
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    Good point. I abused "fold equity" here, I meant the part of the EV calc where Hero bets and Villain folds. You're right that Hero is only causing hands he is already beating to fold.

    I excluded 2 overs + back door FD OTT, assuming he would fold OTF. That sticks out as an iffy decision against this guy.

    I was surprised at the high value, but when he called OTF with a gutshot, he's got pair + gutshot in a lot of his range OTT and is presumably calling with those hands.
  16. #16
    Quote Originally Posted by MadMojoMonkey View Post
    This is excellent! Always do this!



    You'll be crushing 2NL in no time.


    Given this, I have his range PRE as
    { JJ-22,ATs+,KTs+,Q9s+,J8s+,T7s+,97s+,87s,76s,ATo+,KTo+ ,QTo+,JTo }

    and his range after calling the flop as (101 combos)
    { JJ,99,TdTh,TdTs,ThTs,8d8s,8d8c,8s8c,3d3h,3d3c,3h3c ,QJs,Q9s,J9s,97s,76s,
    AhTh,KdTd,KhTh,KsTs,QdTd,QhTh,QsTs,JdTd,JhTh,JsTs, Td9d,Th9h,Ts9s,Jd8d,
    Js8s,Jc8c,Td8d,Ts8s,9d8d,9s8s,9c8c,Td7d,Th7h,Ts7s, 8d7d,8s7s,8c7c,QJo,AhTd,
    AhTs,AcTd,AcTh,AcTs,KdTh,KdTs,KhTd,KhTs,KsTd,KsTh, KcTd,KcTh,KcTs,QdTh,
    QdTs,QhTd,QhTs,QsTd,QsTh,QcTd,QcTh,QcTs,JdTh,JdTs, JhTd,JhTs,JsTd,JsTh,
    JcTd,JcTh,JcTs }

    That's a bit tedious to make sense of, but there it is.

    After the J comes up on the turn, you have ~56% equity against that range.
    Now, the question is: How much of that will call if you shove?


    So now I have this as his range to continue to a flop bet (66 combos)
    { 99,JdJs,JdJc,JsJc,TdTh,TdTs,ThTs,8d8s,8d8c,8s8c,3d 3h,3d3c,3h3c,Q9s,97s,QdJd,
    QsJs,QcJc,AhTh,KhTh,QhTh,JdTd,JsTs,Jd9d,Js9s,Jc9c, Td9d,Th9h,Ts9s,Jd8d,Js8s,
    Jc8c,Td8d,Ts8s,9d8d,9s8s,9c8c,Th7h,7h6h,QdJs,QdJc, QhJd,QhJs,QhJc,QsJd,QsJc,
    QcJd,QcJs,JdTh,JdTs,JsTd,JsTh,JcTd,JcTh,JcTs }

    Here we go:
    Hero shoves for $1.95 - $0.28 - $0.40 = $1.27
    and Villain has him covered
    into a pot of $1.39
    if you win, you will get $1.39 + $1.27 = $2.66

    Odds that Villain folds are ( 101 - 66 )/101 = 35/101 ~= 35%
    Odds that Villain calls are 66/101 ~= 65%

    Using Equilab:
    Equity against Villains calling range is ~= 41%
    So if Villain calls, you expect to lose 100% - 41% = 59%

    EV when you bet and Villain folds = 35% x $1.39 = $0.4865
    EV when you bet, Villain calls and you win = 65% x 41% x $2.66 = $0.7089
    EV when you bet, Villain calls and you lose = 65% x 59% x $-1.27 = $-0.4870

    And the grand total is: $0.4865 + $0.7089 - $0.4870 ~= $0.71

    Which is a positive number or +EV, so the shove is a winning move in the long run (assuming those ranges).

    I can't say with this single calculation whether or not it was your most +EV line. That answer would come by analyzing more hypothetical situations at the decision point and maybe prior. E.g. if you bet $0.45 OTF, does that affect his range? Does that effect give you more or less equity when you shove OTT? All of this is long-term stuff, but it all starts with understanding how to find the EV of any given situation. (Don't expect to be able to do this at the table. This is something to study until it bleeds through into a bigger picture.)

    This should give you a quick guide to figuring out the EV of an all-in shove situation. You can adjust the ranges and re-calculate (which is really easy if you just set up a spreadsheet to do the calc. You will need* an outside program like equilab (free) to calculate the equity. It should let you put in ranges and count the number of combos in that range (like the 101 and the 66 above). Any poker calculator which calculates equity when you put in ranges is fine, but I do like some of the functionality of equilab.

    *You don't strictly need software to do this, but use software to save loads of time.
    Wow! Thanks MadMojoMonkey for the encouragement and excellent off-table analysis. This is gold! I will definitely have to download Equilab. Although it makes my head spin, I Really appreciate this.
  17. #17
    Quote Originally Posted by OngBonga View Post
    Well I don't expect him to fold out anything that is currently beating AA, so fold equity is not really a factor here, other than to say I want less of it, which is why I prefer a smaller turn shove relative to pot.

    I can see by your numbers that our fold equity matches his equity, which is wonderful if correct, because it means that what we win at showdown is all profit. I'm surprised we're winning that much here, tbh. It feels closer, but I'm probably wrong because I'm too lazy to crunch ranges.
    Thanks OngBonga. Two questions if you don’t mind: I understand that you prefer a smaller Turn Shove (I believe you said approximately 80% in a previous post). With this in mind, how do I react if Villain decides to shove the Turn after my bet? Also, are there any scenarios where I check fold the River?
  18. #18
    MadMojoMonkey's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by BroadWheel View Post
    Wow! Thanks MadMojoMonkey for the encouragement and excellent off-table analysis. This is gold! I will definitely have to download Equilab. Although it makes my head spin, I Really appreciate this.
    My pleasure! You gave me all the info I needed to do that calc., which means you're noticing the right things at the tables.



    All of this is something you develop a feeling for over time. The more times you actually work out a guess for Villains' ranges and check your equity against them with some software, the more it becomes intuitive. Same for the EV calc. It's a mess the first time you see it, but it makes sense at a glance eventually.

    Same with guessing Villains' ranges, and you are way ahead of the field on that skill!

    Post more hands with the same level of observations on Villain.
  19. #19
    Quote Originally Posted by BroadWheel View Post
    Thanks OngBonga. Two questions if you don’t mind: I understand that you prefer a smaller Turn Shove (I believe you said approximately 80% in a previous post). With this in mind, how do I react if Villain decides to shove the Turn after my bet? Also, are there any scenarios where I check fold the River?
    By "80% shove" I mean that your shove is equal to 80% of the pot, instead of 100% pot as is the case here. We control the size of the turn shove by betting flop slightly more, thus making the pot bigger and stacks smaller.

    Villain can't shove the turn because I'll already be all in. If he shoves the flop over my cbet, I'm calling.

    As for check/fold river, I don't see how I ever get to the river here with anything left in my stack to fold. Like I say, I'm either calling all in on flop, or shoving all in on turn. Villain's fold equity is exactly zero.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  20. #20
    I could see me check/folding river if the turn checked through and the river is a nine, but I'd really be hating myself for checking the turn when I should have shoved.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong

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