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[10z] Flopped flush

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  1. #1

    Default [10z] Flopped flush

    No reads on villain, note that the 10% 3bet is still him only having 3bet once.

    PokerStars - $0.10 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
    Hand converted by PokerTracker 4


    Hero (BTN): 108.9 BB
    SB: 100 BB (VPIP: 16.67, PFR: 11.11, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 18)
    BB: 237.1 BB (VPIP: 29.63, PFR: 25.93, 3Bet Preflop: 10.00, Hands: 28)
    UTG: 106.4 BB (VPIP: 18.52, PFR: 12.96, 3Bet Preflop: 5.26, Hands: 54)
    MP: 137.7 BB (VPIP: 22.22, PFR: 22.22, 3Bet Preflop: 25.00, Hands: 29)
    CO: 743.2 BB (VPIP: 27.27, PFR: 18.18, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 22)


    SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB


    Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 6 J


    fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 2.5 BB, fold, BB calls 1.5 BB


    Flop: (5.5 BB, 2 players) K 9 3
    BB bets 3 BB, Hero raises to 9.4 BB, BB calls 6.4 BB


    Turn: (24.3 BB, 2 players) 6
    BB checks, Hero bets 13.2 BB, BB raises to 29 BB, Hero calls 15.8 BB


    River: (82.3 BB, 2 players) J
    BB bets 94.5 BB


    Posting this because I felt totally lost at every decision and regretted most of them after they were done.

    Pre I feel like he's calling mostly with pocket pairs and middle broadways. I'm expecting population to 3bet suited aces, big pairs and the top broadways, but don't really have much info on this guy so we can chuck in those to some degree too.


    When he donks the flop I'm pretty lost - he might be thinking monochrome board go go gadget bluff, but my feeling at the time was perhaps his range consists of made hands (top pair, sets) which are scared of me checking behind and the board state getting even worse for him.

    When he calls my flop raise I'm narrowing that down to like sets and top pairs with KQh or AhK.

    When he then c/r turn, it stops making much sense because if he was excited about his set he'd presumably have tried to get it in on the flop, but my cards are so pretty that I click the call button.

    Then he shoves the river and I decide that I've clearly gotten the hand all wrong and press the most +EV of buttons, the "mark hand for review" one.

    Help?
  2. #2
    Horrendous spot. We really don't beat much of villain's range that takes this line for value, and he seems reggy, but the flop with K9hh and us holding Jh blocks a lot of his value too. Just feels like one of those spots though where he has one of those few combos that crushes us when he c/r turn and bombs river. How many flush combos do we beat compared to how many we're crushed by?
  3. #3
    Yeah good point, pretty tough for him to have non A flushes when we block with the J. Even if he turns up with QhTh, which already seems like a stretch, should be a pretty easy fold.
  4. #4
    I think this is a turn fold I never make. I mean this isn't a worse flush or he jams flop. A set is cautious. This is the nuts or a bluff, and this isn't an attractive bluffing spot for villain considering the action he's up against.

    That said I'm a fish and I pay off knowing it's the nuts.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  5. #5
    This looks like a good time to go for the rare double-check raise.
    Playing big pots at small stakes.
  6. #6
    Quote Originally Posted by baudib View Post
    This looks like a good time to go for the rare double-check raise.
    Ultra-rare spot where we should double-check raise the button :P

    It's BUvBB against an aggressive-seeming unknown reggish player, and we have the 3rd nuts. Folding at any point when the board runs out safe seems impossible to me.

    I'd raise flop bigger. 6.4 into a pot of 11.5 isn't enough in a spot where our equity will decay on a lot of turns.

    I think flatting the turn is okay IP because AhKx type stuff isn't likely and now we can fold if the river pairs (especially the K or 9) or a 4th heart comes.

    OTR: I don't know what he has that plays it this way and it does seem like a very strong line, but surely 33 thinks he has the effective nuts. Maybe I'm a BUvBB fish, but I can't ever find a fold here.
  7. #7
    just stabbin this in here. I'm gonna try and brush up on my EV calc on this hand even though villain is unknown he def has a narrow range. i'll post my equation after this post.
    "We're all just a million little gods causing rainstorms, turning every good thing to rust...."AF
  8. #8
    AI.
  9. #9
    Versus an unknown with no solid reads, you can err on the side of not being exploited here. He's risking around 67 BB's on the river for a 82bb pot, so you need to continue with around 55% of your range (1 - 67/(67+82)).

    So just think of all the hands that you might play like this, and how many combos there are:
    33 (3)
    99 (3)
    KK (3)
    AhK (3)
    AAh (3)
    AhQ (3)
    AhJ (3)
    Axhh (8)
    Qxhh (8)
    Jxhh (8)
    Txhh (2)
    8xhh (2)

    So a total of 49 combos will play like this. You need to call on the river with the top 55% (so top 27 combos).

    That would definitely include most flushes, including Jxhh, since you get to the river with so many hands that aren't flushes (combo draws + sets).
    Quote Originally Posted by Jay-Z
    I'm a couple hands down and I'm tryin' to get back
    I gave the other grip, I lost a flip for five stacks
  10. #10
    You are heads up with the third nuts against a player you don't know, neither he knows you. Most of the time you are going to have the best hand there. As played i'm calling the river.

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