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[10NL] QQ...Multi-way 4bet pot...WTF?

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  1. #1

    Default [10NL] QQ...Multi-way 4bet pot...WTF?

    UTG - 29/20/12 (3bet) over 71 hands. FT3B 86%, 6/7. Had note that villain had 4bet JJ.

    MP - 21/18/4 (3bet) reg over 300 hands. FT3B 81%. Couple of notes on villain, he had 3bet/call a 4bet OOP w/ QQ. Had seen villain 4bet twice, once w/ QQ and once w/ AA.

    PokerStars - $0.10 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
    Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

    CO: $23.80
    BTN: $14.24
    SB: $10.35
    Hero (BB): $10.15
    UTG: $6.34
    MP: $12.14

    SB posts SB $0.05, Hero posts BB $0.10

    Pre Flop: (pot: $0.15) Hero has Q Q

    UTG raises to $0.25, MP calls $0.25, fold, BTN calls $0.25, fold, Hero raises to $1.15, UTG calls $0.90, MP raises to $3.90, fold, Hero ???

    What is going on here? Does MP really flat IP w/ KK+ here? IIRC, BU had a 3bet of 14% so maybe he was flatting hoping to trap him but caught me instead? I don't see the reg doing this w/ anything weaker than QQ, possibly AKs.

    I have no idea what to do here.
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  2. #2
    Lukie's Avatar
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    Just a quick point about cold calling KK/AA, I pretty much auto 3-bet it every time for a long time but then there were times I made a conscious effort to sometimes call with it instead. I think it is better to do the latter a small percentage of the time for game theory considerations. Some players just do it intuitively (and of course some do it too often) but I guess the overriding point is that you shouldn't be super surprised if someone shows up with KK/AA just because they didn't raise every single chance they got preflop.

    That being said, my default play would be to jam here but if your read is that he always has QQ+ and maybe AKs it's an easy fold.
  3. #3
    rong's Avatar
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    Jam. Mp should have AK a lot. My reasoning, utg raises. Mp calls with AK as utg has super strong range and raising means folding worse and only better proceeds. But when bb 3bs, this could be a squeeze with worse than AK, so when utg calls it shows a potentially weaker range, which means AK can feel good all of a sudden.
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  4. #4
    rong's Avatar
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    Lemme do better.

    Utg range is pretty strong to begin with, say 77+, AJ+, Mp calling is usually 55-QQ, AK. Squeezer coujd be considerably wider. When utg calls his range narrows considerably. Who the fuck enters a 3w with AA or KK? So his range narrows to say TT-QQ, AK. Mp can now raise with AK quite comfortably. So jam, utg nearly always folds and you either take the pot or end up all in with all that dead money against QQ, AK.
    I'm the king of bongo, baby I'm the king of bongo bong.
  5. #5
    Quote Originally Posted by rong View Post
    Lemme do better.

    Utg range is pretty strong to begin with, say 77+, AJ+, Mp calling is usually 55-QQ, AK. Squeezer coujd be considerably wider. When utg calls his range narrows considerably. Who the fuck enters a 3w with AA or KK? So his range narrows to say TT-QQ, AK. Mp can now raise with AK quite comfortably. So jam, utg nearly always folds and you either take the pot or end up all in with all that dead money against QQ, AK.
    Quality post that Rong, never thought about how much UTG's range changes after he flat my 3bet. Seems so simple now.
    Currently grinding live cash games. Life is good.
  6. #6
    Razvan729's Avatar
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    Fold, look at stats you posted. He has no AK and he did now, doesnt have it enough times
    All posts are just my own opinion about a hand or a general situation... not advices on how you should play...
  7. #7
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    Im jam good for him if he did flat AA, KK. People dont flat big pairs even though they prolly should in spots where 3bing is redic strong.
    What im saying is id need to see it to beleive he has them in his range defo note taking this one.
  8. #8
    shove and win win = 1.15+.1.15+.25+10.15 = 12.7
    shove and lose = -9

    x - hero's equity when all-in
    12.7x-(1-x)9 =0
    12.7x-9+9x=0
    21.7x=9
    x=41.4%

    Hero needs 41.4% equity vs MP (assuming UTG folds), when all-in to shove here.

    QQ vs AK/AA/KK

    Hand 0: 60.143% { KK+, AKs, AKo }
    Hand 1: 39.857% { QQ }

    QQ vs JJ/QQ/AK/AA/KK

    Hand 0: 52.634% { JJ+, AKs, AKo }
    Hand 1: 47.366% { QQ }

    Given that I think it's more likely he flatted AK than AA/KK (discount these), I think it's a marginally +EV shove here.
    Last edited by griffey24; 12-21-2013 at 10:32 AM.
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  9. #9
    Intuitively I like folding, but Griffeys post reveals it's probably a bit nitty. I like folding more if UTG is tight and you expect MP to know it, or if UTG is a maniac (ie. will barrel off postflop, but might fold or at least slow down to aggression) and you expect MP to know it. Backraising when you've squeezed 3 players and it was an UTG open just looks so strong, I really wanna nitfold it.
  10. #10
    I think we failed to take our own image into effect here. Have we squeezed at this table? How's our 3 bet frequency? If it's possible he is playing back at us thinking we have been the aggressor I expect to see all sorts of hands here. If we have no image of note then are we really going to expect MP to be as thinking as we are making him out to be?
  11. #11
    What jyms says. If I'm not 3betting often, then I'm folding this, but if my squeeze stat is high, then yeah I jam it.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
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  12. #12
    Griffey hit this on the head.

    the situation you are in is an allin preflop spot which math can be done fairly easily.

    Id fold it here though, at this level I think ranges don't include JJ and AKo (def not including all AKo as I don't think there is 100% chance they push these like this).

    2c
    Jman: every time the action is to you, it's an opportunity for you to make the perfect play.
  13. #13
    Quote Originally Posted by jyms View Post
    I think we failed to take our own image into effect here. Have we squeezed at this table? How's our 3 bet frequency? If it's possible he is playing back at us thinking we have been the aggressor I expect to see all sorts of hands here. If we have no image of note then are we really going to expect MP to be as thinking as we are making him out to be?
    Imo image is overrated, at these stakes. Utg and mp should be respected in this scenario I feel, if on button or blinds then you could argue.
    Jman: every time the action is to you, it's an opportunity for you to make the perfect play.

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