[10NL] QQ in CO facing cold 4b

BTN: $10 (100 bb)
SB: $10.35 (103.5 bb)
BB: $10.63 (106.3 bb) {48/27, 9.8% 3b, 70% CB, first 4bet ever, 128 hands}
MP: $14.08 (140.8 bb)
Hero (CO): $10 (100 bb)

Preflop: Hero is CO with Q Q
MP raises to $0.30, Hero raises to $1, 2 folds, BB raises to $3.35, MP folds, Hero ??

So assuming he's 4betting QQ+ AK here what's our line? Is it best to call and re-eval flop? Or should we just be folding knowing we're going to be facing a bet OTF and not really knowing where we're at? Obviously we can fold A and K high flops pretty easily but what about low flops? He's going to bluff AK some of the time I'm assuming but he's also going to show up with KK+ in those spots a ton.

Or is QQ+ AK too narrow? Can he show up with some big suited aces or random crap making this a value jam?

This is probably just standard but I'm lost.

If you expect villain to have AK, QQ+ and you flat. The pot would be like $7 and you would have an eff stack of about $7 making the SPR ~1.

Create a scenario where this is in any way possibly a good idea. K high or A high flops happen about 40% of the time btw.

Summaries/main points in bold I know this might be TLDR

So if 55% of villain's range is AK, 45% is QQ+.
40% of the time we'll see an A/K high flop villain will be betting it 96.5% of the time (the other 3.5% is him checking down to the river his one combo of QQ) and we will fold.
60% of the time we'll see a Q- high flop and villain will bet KK+, and check/fold AK to our bet, which means we should be folding to a bet even on these flops unless we hit a set.

For simplicity's sake I'm going to assume we win 0 when he has QQ even though we probably lose a bit due to rake, and that we'll win his full stack when we hit a set even though he'll hit an A or K for overset sometimes. Also I haven't accounted for when we call and hit a set and villain has us set over setted.

(A/K high)(checks QQ combo)(we win 0)+(A/K high)(we fold to a bet)(amount we lose)+(% of time flop is not A/K high and we don't have a set)(villain checks AK)(we bet and win 4.7)+(% of time flop is not A/K high and we don't have a set)(villain bets QQ+ and we fold)(amount we lose)+(we call and flop a set)(stack off vs. KK+)(amount we win)+(we call and flop a set)(we bet and villain fold AK)(amount we win)


(0.4)(0.035)(0)+(0.4)(0.965)(-2.35)+(0.482)(0.55)(4.7)+(0.482)(0.45)(-2.35)+(0.118)(0.45)(11.35)+(0.118)(0.55)(4.7)=0.74


This is pretty simplistic, makes a lot of assumptions, and likely full of mistakes. First time I've attempted an eV calculation of this scope. If it's this thin with all these assumptions being made mostly in my favour, we expect to lose a lot of eV to the times he bluffs us post, to the times he set over sets us, sucks out with AK or KK+, etc. which should make this a fold.

I actually don't really know what villain will be cold 4betting here tbh, I imagine as a standard most people are going to be too tight and value heavy. I do doubt he does have just AK, QQ+ but he probably isn't going to be all that wider.

It might be a good idea to work out if you shove how much villain has to fold for you to profit w/ATC and see if that's ever possibly going to be realistic. Then you can also create an EV calculation for shoving over the top and play about with different ranges to get an idea of what makes this profitable for us to do. A mixture of things like him being tight and calling tight (i.e. AK, QQ+ but only calls w/KK+) him being bluff heavy/value heavy calling tight/loose.

I'll do that, and add it to this post after I'm off work tonight

I think that you have to call. Maybe the villain has AK or QQ+ and maybe like ImSavy said, A high or K high happen 40% of the time, but on other hand QQ are really strong cards and there is also good chance to make a set on the flop. My opinion here is to call his raise, and see what will happen on the flop, maybe it will be dealt Q.

Probably TLDR for a lot of people, I left the main points in bold.

So if we have 0 equity when called villain has to fold bet/(bet+pot); we would be shoving 9 into 4.7 so 9/(9+4.7)=0.6569, thus villain has to fold roughly 66% of the time for us to break even.



Lets say villain cold 4bets QQ+ AK and calls off everything. We have 40.21% equity.

(0.4021)(11.35)+(0.5979)(-9)=-0.82



Lets say villain cold 4bets QQ+ AK but folds AK to a jam. AK is 55% of his 4betting range, QQ+ is 45%. We have 20.7% equity when called.

(0.55)(4.7)+(0.45)(0.207)(11.35)+(0.45)(0.793)(-9)=0.43

I think it's interesting that even though he's never calling worse in this scenario we still have a +eV bet. Am I missing something here?



Lets say villain cold 4bets premiums and a mix of semibluff ish hands, like QQ+ AK, A2s-A8s. In this case he has 29 combos of value and 28 combos of bluff. Lets say he folds his bluffs here but calls his premiums, meaning he's folding 49% of the time and we have 40.21% equity when called.

(0.49)(4.7)+(0.51)(0.4021)(11.35)+(0.51)(0.5979)(-9)=1.89

So when he's got a lot of bluffs but is only calling off his premiums jamming is even higher +eV than in the second scenario. It's also interesting that he calls with very few "worse" hands (AK) and yet we still have a +eV bet.



It might be interesting to work out what our eV is going to look like for calling his cold 4bet when he has a range of QQ+ AK, A2s-A8s and compare it to jamming. I may be ill equipped to work out an eV calculation of this scope and I'm going to have to make a lot of assumptions for this scenario so bear with me.

Assumptions:
- We'll see an A/K high flop 40% of the time
- With SPR's so low villain will always bet all in if he chooses to bet
- Villain will bet A/K high flops with everything but QQ and we will fold when this happens
- Villain will bet all flopped flush draws (1/9 of the time)
- Villain will bet KK+ 100% of the time
- We will always call the bet if the flop is not A/K high

Flop is A/K high, villain bets, we fold
(0.4)(-2.35) = -0.94

Flop is Q- high, but two tone, villain bets his flush draws and QQ+ (26% of his range) and we call
(0.6)(0.26)(0.11)(0.6923)(-9)+(0.6)(0.26)(0.11)(0.3077)(11.7) = -0.045

Flop is Q- high, rainbow, villain bets his QQ+ (12% of his range) and we call like donks.
(0.6)(0.12)(0.89)(0.8841)(-9)+(0.6)(0.12)(0.89)(0.1159)(11.7) = -0.42

Add all that together and we get -1.40 eV for calling the bet, within the restrictions of our assumptions and under the assumption that my calculations were correct which is by far the most reaching assumption here (lol).

I suspect that our eV increases dramatically as we add bluffs to his flop betting range in this scenario so I'll work that out tomorrow, I'm dead tired right now.

+1

good breakdown mury, precisely what ya need to do away from the table to rise above