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[10NL] QJo...BU vs CO. Facing second check min-raise, somewhat deep.

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  1. #1

    Default [10NL] QJo...BU vs CO. Facing second check min-raise, somewhat deep.

    Villain is 38/16/3 (3bet) over 70 hands. CB is 25%.

    Couple of notes on villain; I know he liked to c/r bluff on paired flops, even in 3bet pots. Had seen him do some pretty weird things as well such as raising and calling a 3bet OOP w/ 76o from UTG. Enough stuff to suggest he wasn't a reg, or at least a good reg.

    PokerStars - $0.10 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 4 players
    Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

    BB: $8.00
    CO: $19.52
    Hero (BTN): $18.23
    SB: $24.45

    SB posts SB $0.05, BB posts BB $0.10

    Pre Flop: (pot: $0.15) Hero has Q J

    CO raises to $0.30, Hero calls $0.30, fold, fold

    Flop: ($0.75, 2 players) 7 J 5
    CO checks, Hero bets $0.55, CO raises to $1.10, Hero calls $0.55

    Turn: ($2.95, 2 players) Q
    CO checks, Hero bets $2.10, CO raises to $4.20, Hero ???

    I have no idea what to make of this line at all. Given that we are somewhat deep I am hesitant to stack off given I have no idea what he is doing. Is that bad logic or do we prefer to call and re-eval on the river given we have position?
    Currently grinding live cash games. Life is good.
  2. #2
    Well I'm certainly not folding but I share your caution regarding stacking. Only worse hands he likes vs turn 3b are flush draws and KK/AA even then we're hard pushed to get him in on turn. I think he has sets, overpairs and bluffs pretty much always. How many bluffs is obviously debateable, but even if he has zero, I would think we're good to call down.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  3. #3
    If he checks a blank river I'm totally b/c'ing.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  4. #4
    Quote Originally Posted by OngBonga View Post
    Well I'm certainly not folding but I share your caution regarding stacking. Only worse hands he likes vs turn 3b are flush draws and KK/AA even then we're hard pushed to get him in on turn. I think he has sets, overpairs and bluffs pretty much always. How many bluffs is obviously debateable, but even if he has zero, I would think we're good to call down.
    Commented on wrong hand. Deleted reply.

    I was just completely confused w/ the line villain has taken.
    Last edited by Cobra_1878; 12-31-2013 at 10:28 AM.
    Currently grinding live cash games. Life is good.
  5. #5
    I was just completely confused w/ the line villain has taken.
    Usually when a villain at micros takes a confusing line it's because he's a fish. Sets and KK+ are what I expect to see the majority of the time after turn c/r.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  6. #6
    I thought this but then I thought the only overs he has is obv KK+ and I expect these to be 4bet pre a very high % of the time.
    Wait, how does he 4bet pre when you didn't 3bet? KK+ is bang in his range.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  7. #7
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    Call. Call river. Bet smallish if he doesnt bet then call when he raises. Villain cant 4b pre when we dont 3b pre.
  8. #8
    I'd seriously consider folding to a reasonable river bet if river is 7 or 5. They're worse than A/K.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  9. #9
    Razvan729's Avatar
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    Would you jam 100bb? How about if you hold 55?
    If yes, then shove this also and expect to see sets / 57 / KK+ / nfd/ fd / combo draes / tp+fd/ pair + fd
    All posts are just my own opinion about a hand or a general situation... not advices on how you should play...
  10. #10
    Given stacks, seems like an easy call and re-eval.
    Quote Originally Posted by Jay-Z
    I'm a couple hands down and I'm tryin' to get back
    I gave the other grip, I lost a flip for five stacks
  11. #11
    Assuming you 3bet QQ preflop I think you have to call here. Especially after you flat his raise on the flop and bet the turn.

    Your range after this particular action is pretty much JQ exclusively plus whatever draws you would b/c then bet the turn with.

    AJ and KJ other hands you would bet call the flop with I left out since you probably wouldn't bet them 100% of the time on the turn and you'd want to re-raise the flop to try and get stacks in with your sets 77, 55, JJ.

    If you know villain has either 55 or 77. You have 4 outs and there's 46 cards in the deck. 4 help you 42 don't 4:42 = 1:10.5 You need 10.5:1 implied odds to make a +EV call. Your getting 4.4:1 pot odds, if my maths is correct. Even if you win the remainder of your stack on average on the river when you hit you still aren't getting enough implied odds to make a +EV call here.

    Your the effective stack $18.23 - 0.3 - 1.1 - 4.2 = $12.63

    If you call on the turn you will have $12.63 behind for the river.

    The pot on the turn is $2.95 + 2.1 + 4.2 = $9.25

    Your calling $2.1 to win $9.25 9.25/2.1 = 4.4:1

    If you add your remaining stack $9.25 + $12.63 = $21.88 21.88/2.1 = 10.4:1

    You aren't getting 10.5:1

    This is assuming villain only has 55 or 77 you would need even better odds to make a +EV call if he had JJ QQ in his range also which he obviously does. This is just to illustrate if you know your always behind when he takes this line then folding would be the most +EV play.

    Villain has other hands in his range KK+ AQdd AJdd ATdd KTdd KQdd KJdd JQ possibly J7 68 as well. So I think calling is best on the turn.

    Then evaluate river based on his sizing and the river card, I think a 5, 7 or diamond would be disastrous.

    Also the fact that he's attacking your betting range is a cause for concern unless you've shown down a few bluffs and have been aggressive, he might be trying to adjust if that was the case.
    Erín Go Bragh
  12. #12
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    Some people dont care what we has cos they r bluffing we must also be bluffing. This guy is fps fos always. He either has overpair or bluff. I agree pairing board card sucks balsax but I can not fold now villain takes this line. If I loose im tiltef and have to quit if I fold im tiltef but wont quit and will end up worse off.
  13. #13
    Griffey can correct me.

    Depending on your read and some assumptions I could make, I could 3bet pre for value.

    In above, I'd get it in.
    Jman: every time the action is to you, it's an opportunity for you to make the perfect play.

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