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[10NL] AQo, river bet too thin?

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  1. #1

    Default [10NL] AQo, river bet too thin?

    I didn't have notes on villain having strange raise sizing so I'm assuming it's this big because of the bb posted by the CO and is not related to hand strength or whatever.

    Villain is 23/18 with a 9% 3bet. Though his stats seem reggy, I had seen him do some strange stuff like call 3bets w/ KJo and K5o IP so I'm not entirely sure what to make of him.

    PokerStars - $0.10 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
    Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

    BTN: $10.60
    SB: $45.02
    Hero (BB): $18.35
    UTG: $17.58
    MP: $10.12
    CO: $4.00

    SB posts SB $0.05, Hero posts BB $0.10, CO posts penalty blind $0.15

    Pre Flop: (pot: $0.30) Hero has Q A

    UTG raises to $0.60, fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero calls $0.50

    Flop: ($1.40, 2 players) 4 A 2
    Hero checks, UTG checks

    Turn: ($1.40, 2 players) T
    Hero bets $1.00, UTG calls $1.00

    River: ($3.40, 2 players) K
    Hero bets $1.65, UTG raises to $4.90, fold

    I'm most interested in the river bet here; is it too thin? I think I'm looking for calls from like AJ and mayyyyybe KQ so it just seems super thin. If we check, are we calling a 1/2 pot bet?
    Currently grinding live cash games. Life is good.
  2. #2
    River bet seems a bit too thin and if we're checking, I think it should be with the intention to exploitably c/f. I don't think players at 10nl will bluff in this spot.

    Quick guess of what villain reasonably gets to the river with:
    KdQx (3 combos), KJdd, KTdd (2 combos), KdJx (3 remaining combos), KdTx (2 remaining combos), KK (3 combos), QQ, JJ (9 combos)

    - QQ, JJ fold
    - KJdd, KTdd, KdTx, KK beat us (7 combos)
    - KdQx and KdJx may call (6 combos)

    So value betting is too thin on this basis.
    Last edited by The Bean Counter; 12-28-2015 at 09:07 PM.
  3. #3
    Given your sizing I don't think river bet is too thin. Given flop is monotone he's liable to ck back a lot of AT/AJ stuff and potentially other aces as well on flop.

    River is a pretty easy b/f imo. You have a lot of flushes and sets playing this way that this isn't near the top of your range. You might even have Ak sometimes, given villain is utg.
    Quote Originally Posted by Jay-Z
    I'm a couple hands down and I'm tryin' to get back
    I gave the other grip, I lost a flip for five stacks

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