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[10NL] AKs...Unsure about river

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  1. #1

    Default [10NL] AKs...Unsure about river

    Villain is 18/11/3 (3bet) over 63 hands. FTCB 100%, 3/3.

    PokerStars - $0.10 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
    Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

    Hero (UTG): $11.62
    MP: $10.31
    CO: $10.10
    BTN: $10.15
    SB: $39.15
    BB: $31.08

    SB posts SB $0.05, BB posts BB $0.10

    Pre Flop: (pot: $0.15) Hero has A K

    Hero raises to $0.35, MP calls $0.35, fold, fold, fold, fold

    Flop: ($0.85, 2 players) 5 J A
    Hero bets $0.60, MP calls $0.60

    Turn: ($2.05, 2 players) 8
    Hero bets $1.45, MP calls $1.45

    River: ($4.95, 2 players) T
    Hero checks, MP bets $2.74, Hero ???

    Was unsure on the best line to take on river? I was going to b/f but I figured I'm probably only getting called here when I'm beat and the best I can hope for is AQ.

    If I c/c, I think his betting range is a little wider than his calling range. He may bet with some weird gutters that he missed like KT/QT where he only has 3rd pair. The problem is I don't think he has many worse Ax hands here and if he does I certainly don't expect him to bet the river with them.
    Currently grinding live cash games. Life is good.
  2. #2
    It's very very rare at these stakes that someone is going to have a betting range wider than their calling range. It's not exactly a board where a lot of stuff missed he is going to bluff at and he ain't betting something like KT although he may (probably not) call.

    I think you're beat here. AQ is probably betting here, but so is every AT, AJ, AK. Any set he may have in his range. But do an equity calc and figure it out.
  3. #3
    Given his fairly tight stats, I'd bet flop and turn a bit smaller (like $0.50 then turn pot is $1.85 to bet about $1.10 into) then I'd just b/f the river smallish too. It's really the only way you can pot control this type of hand a bit when OOP. One of the spots I keep finding myself in over and over again whenever I fail to do this is a big river pot vs a tight player with a hand like this.

    In this particular hand though, I also think the sample you have on him is small enough that I'm still going to assume there's value to be had, so as played, I'd still b/f about $2.50, but I think you're value towning yourself quite often.
  4. #4
    I probably end up stationing this getting almost 3:1 on a call, especially since most of my range checking here is c/f so this is near the top of my possible c/c range.
    Quote Originally Posted by Jay-Z
    I'm a couple hands down and I'm tryin' to get back
    I gave the other grip, I lost a flip for five stacks
  5. #5
    Quote Originally Posted by griffey24 View Post
    I probably end up stationing this getting almost 3:1 on a call, especially since most of my range checking here is c/f so this is near the top of my possible c/c range.
    I was goign to say this because imo he will be c/f here 100% if he folds this. However do you think that mattes? I mean this and AQ are probably the only hands that he bets twice and then checks the river.

    Against a more competent villain I think we have to be calling some % of our AK here as people will just fire a lot of their bluffs but against this guy I think we're ok folding and being really exploitable.
  6. #6
    Looking at hand combos:
    55-3
    AJ - 6
    Total possible strong hands on flop - 9, if we discount 20% due to potentially flop raising, that leaves 7
    AQ - 8
    ATs - 1
    JTs - 2 (discount 50%, might not call turn again, so that leaves 1)
    Note: I'm assuming he doesn't have KQ here. If he is somehow peeling KQ twice, then he also has so many more hands that might bluff (QJ/QT)

    Total hands that beat us on river - 11
    Getting about 3:1, we need to beat 3.5-4 of his combos on river.
    Does he bet 25% of his AQ combos on river? That's already 2 combos.He probably should bet AQ given most of our checking range is weaker than AQ.
    If he bets 50% of his AQ we already have enough combos to call. If not, we only need 2 more bluff combos.

    Also hero raised UTG, so villain probably has more AK combos than he might otherwise have. Up to 6 combos that we chop, that will also likely be betting here.
    Quote Originally Posted by Jay-Z
    I'm a couple hands down and I'm tryin' to get back
    I gave the other grip, I lost a flip for five stacks
  7. #7
    I'm either b/f river or c/c, I can take either line. I certainly don't intend to c/f river so I'm calling this.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  8. #8
    U can't fold that and looks like too much of a bet on his side: wants u to fold and steal the pot, if he wanted value woulda bet less.
    If things were to magically revert to January 1st, 2003, only I could take everything I know now in terms of poker ability/knowledge, bonus clearing, etc., I think it's safe to say that it would be trivially easy to make over a million dollars.
  9. #9
    Razvan729's Avatar
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    fold river. villain is value betting 55%pot. he will be good vs AK 90% times he bets river.

    i would also try 1.5/fold to get a cheaper SD.
    All posts are just my own opinion about a hand or a general situation... not advices on how you should play...
  10. #10
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    Fold river. I think there's a great possibility that villain is holding Q9o. Rereading the thread I'm kind of surprised that nobody has mentioned this hand. He probably just sucked you out on a straight draw.
    Last edited by Nostalgia; 12-07-2013 at 01:36 PM.
  11. #11
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nostalgia View Post
    Fold river. I think there's a great possibility that villain is holding Q9o. Rereading the thread I'm kind of surprised that nobody has mentioned this hand. He probably just sucked you out on a straight draw.
    I don't think villain shows up with Q9o very often. Maybe I'm missing some obvious humor here? Help me out.
  12. #12
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lukie View Post
    I don't think villain shows up with Q9o very often.
    Why not? It would certainly explain the all in river bet after three calls, no? Not really sure what you mean by obvious humor. Nobody else really seems to know what he had either. I just see a lot of random guesses.
  13. #13
    Quote Originally Posted by Nostalgia View Post
    Why not? It would certainly explain the all in river bet after three calls, no? Not really sure what you mean by obvious humor. Nobody else really seems to know what he had either. I just see a lot of random guesses.
    It's not an all-in on the river. Also, since he's 18/11 I think Q9o is pretty unlikely to be in his range preflop, and even if it was he's folded to 3/3 cbets so far so it doesn't look like he's chasing backdoor straight draws to the non-nuts too much.
  14. #14
    Quote Originally Posted by Nostalgia View Post
    Fold river. I think there's a great possibility that villain is holding Q9o. Rereading the thread I'm kind of surprised that nobody has mentioned this hand. He probably just sucked you out on a straight draw.
    Q9o??

    If someone offered me to wager my entire net worth and house and wife on villain having Q9o, I would snap wager it.

    An 18/11 doesn't call Q9o from UTG+1 vs UTG. And IF somehow he did (which I'd estimate at about 1% chance), he doesn't call the flop with Q9o. And if somehow he did (maybe 5%) he might not even call the turn with it (maybe 5%).

    So 1%*5%*5% = .0025% chance of having Q9o imo. I would love for hero to tell me he called and saw Q9o and then I can re-assess all of my poker understanding.
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    I gave the other grip, I lost a flip for five stacks
  15. #15
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    You guys really seem to over analyze the micros. On every other forum they generally expect people to make horrible calls OOP @ that level of play. Here, you dissect every micros hand like it's the WSOP.

    What a forum...

    If the people posting and playing were that good they wouldn't be playing the micros still.

    I've seen less than 9k hands in my life. What's your excuse for being stuck here?
  16. #16
    Razvan729's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nostalgia View Post



    I've seen less than 9k hands in my life.
    ^ that's the problem... btw, some people on this forum play an average monthly income in a day, so i would listen to them.
    All posts are just my own opinion about a hand or a general situation... not advices on how you should play...
  17. #17
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    I didn't say I wasn't listening I just said that I've never seen anybody on even one other forum analyze micros hands to this extent.

    A lot of you are out in the middle of bumblefuck Europe. It's difficult to not take what you say with a grain of salt at first. This forum wasn't even aware of reliable cashouts on WPN, Revolution, and Bovada. If you're unaware of that, you could be unaware of anything.
  18. #18
    Razvan729's Avatar
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    people from other forums dont play for a living, most people from here do and they do it quite well. this is just a reason
    All posts are just my own opinion about a hand or a general situation... not advices on how you should play...
  19. #19
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    Quote Originally Posted by Razvan729 View Post
    people from other forums dont play for a living, most people from here do and they do it quite well. this is just a reason
    Really? Nobody on 2p2 or CC plays for a living?

    Kind of arrogant/ignorant to assume that this is the only forum that has professional online players posting on it.

    I just find it odd that if someone is a long time pro and a seasoned vet of online poker that they would feel the need to make a beginner such as myself feel so stupid about suggesting Q9o. Typically, someone with that much experience in a venue doesn't even comment on what a beginner misinterprets.
  20. #20
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    Quote Originally Posted by Razvan729 View Post
    ^ that's the problem... btw, some people on this forum play an average monthly income in a day, so i would listen to them.
    They didn't actually say anything to me that would warrant listening. They just attempted to make me feel stupid for suggesting what I did without actually offering any assistance to help me understand. Once again: Kind of hard to imagine someone who plays for an average monthly income in a day would exhibit that kind of behavior. Again, this is the "beginner forum" is it not? If a beginner is made to feel out of place here because of their lack of knowledge where should they post on these forums? I have a few hands from my most recent session that I want to go over but now I'm extremely hesitant to post them.

    One thing you all seem to have in common is being European. Is there something stuck up your collective ass that I'm unaware of?
    Last edited by Nostalgia; 12-07-2013 at 06:25 PM.
  21. #21
    Quote Originally Posted by Nostalgia View Post
    I didn't say I wasn't listening I just said that I've never seen anybody on even one other forum analyze micros hands to this extent.

    A lot of you are out in the middle of bumblefuck Europe. It's difficult to not take what you say with a grain of salt at first. This forum wasn't even aware of reliable cashouts on WPN, Revolution, and Bovada. If you're unaware of that, you could be unaware of anything.
    Hahahah

    What a tool. Welcome to a forum where people actually try and help you do better as well as improve their own games at higher levels by actually thinking about hands instead of just posting "random guesses". Pity you can't see that.
  22. #22
    You suggested Q9o with poor reasoning. Someone said he doesn't think villain will have Q9o very often. You ask why not. Someone else very clearly states why not using logic that should be obvious. You go off your lid at everyone.

    No one knows about American cashouts because all good American regs have moved out the country and don't play on US facing sites. Plus, at least a few of the guys in this thread are Canadian. You ever heard of that country?

    Sorry that you can't take criticism of your thought processes
  23. #23
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pascal View Post
    You ever heard of that country?
    I can absolutely take constructive criticism it's just that many of you fill the stereotype of being nasty, arrogant little Europeans. If you would try actually being friendly and showing that you legitimately care about helping things would be a different story. As it is you seem to just like to point and laugh at anyone who's so new they still misunderstand what, to you, are basic concepts. I don't think I've made one post on this forum that wasn't responded to almost entirely with sarcasm and arrogance. Way to welcome newcomers to your forum.

    Canada? Yeah I've heard of it. Usually in the same sentence as the words fail and irrelevant.
    Last edited by Nostalgia; 12-07-2013 at 08:08 PM.
  24. #24
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pascal View Post
    Hahahah

    What a tool.
    See - If you didn't live in a 3rd world shithole you would realize that the word "tool" hasn't really been used in about 10 years. Once again...no wonder this forum has the absolute least traffic of any poker forum I can find online that didn't die five years ago.
    Last edited by Nostalgia; 12-07-2013 at 08:14 PM.
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    Ok: Fair is fair. CardsChat.com must have the worst players of any poker forum out there. When most of the threads make someone as new to poker as me /facepalm, you know something's wrong.

    Perhaps I'll put up with you European arrogance a little longer on here. Anything to become a legitimately good player.
  26. #26
    Speaking of arrogance.

    Merriam-Webster provides:

    1. An insulting way of thinking or behaving that comes from believing that you are better, smarter, or more important than other people.
    2. An attitude of superiority manifested in an overbearing manner or in presumptuous claims or assumptions.

    Quote Originally Posted by Nostalgia View Post
    You guys really seem to over analyze the micros. On every other forum they generally expect people to make horrible calls OOP @ that level of play. Here, you dissect every micros hand like it's the WSOP.

    What a forum...

    If the people posting and playing were that good they wouldn't be playing the micros still.

    I've seen less than 9k hands in my life. What's your excuse for being stuck here?

    Quote Originally Posted by Nostalgia View Post
    I can absolutely take constructive criticism it's just that many of you fill the stereotype of being nasty, arrogant little Europeans. If you would try actually being friendly and showing that you legitimately care about helping things would be a different story. As it is you seem to just like to point and laugh at anyone who's so new they still misunderstand what, to you, are basic concepts.

    Canada? Yeah I've heard of it. Usually in the same sentence as the words fail and irrelevant.
    Quote Originally Posted by Nostalgia View Post
    See - If you didn't live in a 3rd world shithole you would realize that the word "tool" hasn't really been used in about 10 years. Once again...no wonder this forum has the absolute least traffic of any poker forum I can find online that didn't die five years ago.
    Quote Originally Posted by Nostalgia View Post
    They didn't actually say anything to me that would warrant listening. They just attempted to make me feel stupid for suggesting what I did without actually offering any assistance to help me understand. Once again: Kind of hard to imagine someone who plays for an average monthly income in a day would exhibit that kind of behavior.

    One thing you all seem to have in common is being European. Is there something stuck up your collective ass that I'm unaware of?
    Quote Originally Posted by Nostalgia View Post
    I didn't say I wasn't listening I just said that I've never seen anybody on even one other forum analyze micros hands to this extent.

    A lot of you are out in the middle of bumblefuck Europe. It's difficult to not take what you say with a grain of salt at first. This forum wasn't even aware of reliable cashouts on WPN, Revolution, and Bovada. If you're unaware of that, you could be unaware of anything.
    Erín Go Bragh
  27. #27
    He's overstayed his welcome imo, let's ban him.
  28. #28
    and lol at calling britain a part of europe
  29. #29
    and canada, too! commonwealth i suppose
  30. #30
    On the other hand, if Nostalgia is a troll account, it's probably one of the best-made ones I've seen.

    edit: searching his post history makes it extremely unlikely to be a troll, unfortunately
    Last edited by eugmac; 12-08-2013 at 06:10 AM.
  31. #31
    Quote Originally Posted by Nostalgia View Post
    You guys really seem to over analyze the micros. On every other forum they generally expect people to make horrible calls OOP @ that level of play. Here, you dissect every micros hand like it's the WSOP.
    As someone who posts on 2+2 and here the advice that you get here compared to the advice you'd get if you posted a hand in uNL doesn't even compare. There are maybe 3 or so people who post in those threads who have a grasp of the game as good as the best posters in here and their posts are never in as much detail as some of the people who post in here.

    I don't think you realise the privelledge that you have in that they don't have to post advice. If you want to bitch and cry about people calling you out on a stupid post you made (which we all have) then this forum isn't for you and nor are most poker forums. You're new to the game you're going to be wrong A LOT. Either get over it and learn to get better or stop posting.
  32. #32
    Quote Originally Posted by Nostalgia View Post
    Really? Nobody on 2p2 or CC plays for a living?

    Kind of arrogant/ignorant to assume that this is the only forum that has professional online players posting on it.

    I just find it odd that if someone is a long time pro and a seasoned vet of online poker that they would feel the need to make a beginner such as myself feel so stupid about suggesting Q9o. Typically, someone with that much experience in a venue doesn't even comment on what a beginner misinterprets.
    I can't tell if this post is about me or not. If so, def had no intention of making you feel stupid for thinking Q9o was possible here. At the same time, from a hand reading perspective I think it's an important concept to realize why villain really shouldn't have that hand here.

    It's irrelevant if this is the micros or high stakes. An 18/11 will have similar ranges at either stakes making Q9o unlikely. A 55/8 on the other hand will also have similar ranges at either stake, making Q9o MUCH MUCH more likely.
    Quote Originally Posted by Jay-Z
    I'm a couple hands down and I'm tryin' to get back
    I gave the other grip, I lost a flip for five stacks
  33. #33
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    Quote Originally Posted by griffey24 View Post
    I can't tell if this post is about me or not. If so, def had no intention of making you feel stupid for thinking Q9o was possible here.
    Really? It seemed pretty clear that you intended to do just that. As if you were attempting to earn some favor with your little friends here on this forum. Again - If you're such an experienced, knowledgeable, talented player maybe you should be a little easier on beginners. I'm sure there are numerous topics in this life that I know more about than you. Making you feel like a moron for it certainly wouldn't make me look better in the grand scheme.

    How about in the next thread where you guys analyze one of your pointless microstakes hands you actually post the result sooner than two weeks into the discussion? I just find it hard to believe that you're all walking poker Gods and yet you analyze a 10nl hand for days on end without actually coming to any conclusion. This entire thread is speculation and a waste of your time. Can we actually get to the point sometime soon?
    Last edited by Nostalgia; 12-08-2013 at 04:50 PM.
  34. #34
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    Quote Originally Posted by ImSavy View Post
    There are maybe 3 or so people who post in those threads
    Kind of ironic that you would write that. Every thread on this forum features the same 4 or 5 people posting. This forum is the smallest community of any poker community online.

    Constructive criticism is one thing - Being a total asshole is another. If what you're saying is that I have to expect to be treated like shit here in order to get any educational feedback well then I have to wonder why. Why can't you just say "No, Q9o doesn't add up and here's why"? What would be so horrible about that?

    It seems like some of you get some gratification about knowing more about poker than someone who just started playing. It makes you and the forum look ridiculous. Remember: This is the beginner's forum. If you're going to call something the beginner's forum then expect beginner's to post in it. There's no reason to make them feel stupid when they do. All you're doing is driving people away so this forum remains the least active and up to date poker forum on the internet.
  35. #35
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  37. #37
    I apologize to everyone for sending Nostalgia off the deep end, such that we don't get his enjoyable posts anymore
    Quote Originally Posted by Jay-Z
    I'm a couple hands down and I'm tryin' to get back
    I gave the other grip, I lost a flip for five stacks
  38. #38
    He wasn't as fun as slevin or even dwarfman, so I'm not too bothered.
  39. #39
    Mind you, rereading this thread was worth it. I just realized Nostalgia called griffey's breakdown of villain's range to be a bunch of random guesses lol, and then was surprised when he was called out by griffey when he suggested Q9o.

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