[10NL] AKs...Turn top two pair...close decision?

BB - 16/16 over 25 hands.

UTG is virtual unknown, 13/7 over 16 hands.

PokerStars - $0.10 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

SB: $9.53
BB: $26.74
UTG: $19.27
Hero (MP): $10.00
CO: $6.22
BTN: $8.73

SB posts SB $0.05, BB posts BB $0.10

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.15) Hero has A K

UTG raises to $0.30, Hero calls $0.30, fold, fold, fold, BB calls $0.20

Flop: ($0.95, 3 players) J K 2
BB checks, UTG bets $0.70, Hero calls $0.70, BB calls $0.70

Turn: ($3.05, 3 players) A
BB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets $2.65, BB raises to $6.85, fold, Hero ???

I decide to flat pre because I generally don't like 3betting unknown UTG opens.

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Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

1,672 games 0.000 secs 334,400 games/sec

Board: Jd Kc 2c Ad
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 38.756% 38.76% 00.00% 648 0.00 { AhKh }
Hand 1: 61.244% 61.24% 00.00% 1024 0.00 { KK+, JJ, 22, AcQc, AJs, AcTc, KJs, QTs, AJo, KJo, QTo }

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I need 34% equity to call, I have 39% so I feel it's pretty close here. How does my range look for villain?

you can discount KK+ for BB.

looks more like sets/straights then draws+TP,2pair.

KJ will b/c,b/3bet,c/r flop cause board is very wet rather then c/c so i would discount that also

cant call, you shove or fold,but i prefer folding since this is prob the top of you b/f range in this spot.

i would still 3bet pre.
,

Originally Posted by Razvan729

i prefer folding since this is prob the top of you b/f range in this spot.

Are there any hands you don't fold Razvan??

bottom of my calling range here would be JJ, i would even consider folding 22. i am tooooooooooo tight.

in my opinion, a decent player has the bottom of his turn raising range w/ AJo, and i cant find here reasons to believe villain is bad.

Best you can hope for here is AK for a chop, but I'd expect to see QT here pretty much always. Villains just don't mess around with bluffs oop 3-way on this board and I'd expect sets to c/r the flop and worse 2-pair to call turn.

bb is at least 150% in profit, and we only have his stats? Did you see how he won his stack?

I'll be 3betting this pre. As played turn is puke, looks a lot like QT but he can also have AJ and possibly some Ax flush draws. I'd discount sets. This feels close. I can't honestly say what I do here, I think I'm more than capable of shoving and sighing when he flips QT, but I think I can fold this too. I'm certainly not calling turn, we either have the required equity vs his range to stack it, or we don't, in which case fold.

Doesn't bb pretty much always have AJ or QT?

We all think bb calls the flop with second pair? I think not so much def AJcc but surely not all combos but he might even raise flop with that I think he has straight always mebbe AK

I'm not usually an advocate of folding top two, but if there was a time to fold I think this is a reasonable one.