[10NL] 33...Set facing river donk AI

Villain is 22/17/5 over 148 hands. AF of 4. CB is 67%.

PokerStars - $0.10 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

SB: $8.00
BB: $12.02
UTG: $10.15
Hero (CO): $14.02
BTN: $8.57

SB posts SB $0.05, BB posts BB $0.10

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.15) Hero has 3 3

UTG raises to $0.30, Hero calls $0.30, fold, fold, fold

Flop: ($0.75, 2 players) 3 4 5
UTG bets $0.50, Hero raises to $1.65, UTG calls $1.15

Turn: ($4.05, 2 players) 7
UTG checks, Hero bets $2.60, UTG calls $2.60

River: ($9.25, 2 players) K
UTG bets $5.60 and is all-in, Hero ???

Villain looks like he hit his flush all day long here. Unless he somehow thinks he just hit a K and now his AK has to be the best hand, I just don't see what else he could have. I doubt he spews with many big pairs (TT-QQ), I guess he could have KK/AA.

I don't think he plays a bigger set this way and I also don't think he has any 6x hands either. I would expect a set to 3bet the flop or at least c/r jam the turn. I think a 6x hand c/r jams the turn as well but I just don't think villain has many (if any) 6x hands in his range at all here.

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Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

72 games 0.000 secs 14,400 games/sec

Board: 3h 4h 5c 7c Kh
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 75.000% 75.00% 00.00% 54 0.00 { 33 }
Hand 1: 25.000% 25.00% 00.00% 18 0.00 { KK+, AcKc, AdKd, AsKs, AhQh, AhJh, AhTh, AKo }

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After doing an equity calc this looks like a snap call. I don't think villain raises many suited Axhh hands below AT but even if he goes as low as A7s we still have 67% equity.

If villain isn't spewing w/ AK we still have 40% equity.

looks like your beat here always. i am folding this w/o any other reads.

this looks like a flush,66 or KK to me.

If he's the type to b/c A5/A4, mid pockets (88-TT), overs+BDFD like AQcc/AJcc, on the flop then this is a snap call.

He's liable to turn a lot of hands into bluffs here. I mean.. the only way his bluffs can win now is to shove. The pot odds are so good here.

even though your logic is perfect , i dont agree it works for 10nl, most of them will bet river for value. if it was 25nl+ and we'd have reads villain is a reg, i would be more inclined to agree 100% w/ you griffey.
just my opinion.

Get some balls raz yr opinions are valid

And change yr avatar

Originally Posted by Razvan729

even though your logic is perfect , i dont agree it works for 10nl, most of them will bet river for value. if it was 25nl+ and we'd have reads villain is a reg, i would be more inclined to agree 100% w/ you griffey.
just my opinion.

Yah for sure, for all I know ppl have 0% bluffing frequency in this spot at these stakes. I just think it's very easy to make decisions based on experience by calling 2 or 3 times in this spot and losing each time (ie: making the incorrect call) and then the 3rd or 4th time comes up and you fold when you would have won. Suddenly it goes from a 0% correct call (and clear fold), to a 25-33% correct call (and clear call) in this spot depending on if you would have called or folded in that fourth instance.

It's easy to over-estimate how often you'll lose in a spot, when even the right decision is supposed to be incorrect 75% of the time.

Originally Posted by kickass

Get some balls raz yr opinions are valid

And change yr avatar

agree, i need some to develop my game, mine seems to be useless :P

cant change it, when it comes to poker i'm still a donkey and ppl must be aware of that, except villains at my tables

again right, cant argue w/ you, but this is why you are who you are and i am not.
you have reached a level still far away from me and a lot of players.
you combine theory w/ practice and developed the ability to overcome the natural variance of he game which affects me in a very tilting way.

the fact that you can happy accept losing ,for ex. 10BI in a row, w/o affecting your game, because you know damn well that you made the correct play and that over the month, the year you will be the winning player, is, in my opinion the biggest step a player can do in developing his game.

short way: embracing variance

Originally Posted by griffey24

the 3rd or 4th time comes up and you fold when you would have won. Suddenly it goes from a 0% correct call (and clear fold), to a 25-33% correct call (and clear call) in this spot depending on if you would have called or folded in that fourth instance.

Yeah this is an interesting way to state it and it's something I think anyone in the BC especially should think about - not only should you lose that spot say 70% of the time, but it would not take much variance at all (ie. there's probably say a 20% chance that) the first 8 times you call that spot you lose, the long run is so long.

Calling if villain is Russian or Greek. This is 100% flush at this stake otherwise.

I'm calling, most of his flush draws are huge combo draws on the flop and the vast majority of 10nl players are just gonna gii on flop. His flop b/c means he's less likely to have nfd. Yeah a 22/17 is stacking flop with Axhh a lot more often than not. KK is my biggest concern but AK is certainly in his range, as are any Ax gutshots that he can turn into a bluff on a great scare river. Of course he still has flushes, but him not stacking the flop gives us a little more equity imo.

It actually depends on the information you have on the player. If he is a good player, AK is out of his range, maybe he has flush, a bigger set, or aces. If you think he will bet all in with aces then he could have them, but I think that most of the times you are going to be beaten