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[10NL] 33...Set facing river donk AI
Villain is 22/17/5 over 148 hands. AF of 4. CB is 67%.
PokerStars - $0.10 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4
SB: $8.00
BB: $12.02
UTG: $10.15
Hero (CO): $14.02
BTN: $8.57
SB posts SB $0.05, BB posts BB $0.10
Pre Flop: (pot: $0.15) Hero has 3 3
UTG raises to $0.30, Hero calls $0.30, fold, fold, fold
Flop: ($0.75, 2 players) 3 4 5
UTG bets $0.50, Hero raises to $1.65, UTG calls $1.15
Turn: ($4.05, 2 players) 7
UTG checks, Hero bets $2.60, UTG calls $2.60
River: ($9.25, 2 players) K
UTG bets $5.60 and is all-in, Hero ???
Villain looks like he hit his flush all day long here. Unless he somehow thinks he just hit a K and now his AK has to be the best hand, I just don't see what else he could have. I doubt he spews with many big pairs (TT-QQ), I guess he could have KK/AA.
I don't think he plays a bigger set this way and I also don't think he has any 6x hands either. I would expect a set to 3bet the flop or at least c/r jam the turn. I think a 6x hand c/r jams the turn as well but I just don't think villain has many (if any) 6x hands in his range at all here.
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Text results appended to pokerstove.txt
72 games 0.000 secs 14,400 games/sec
Board: 3h 4h 5c 7c Kh
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 75.000% 75.00% 00.00% 54 0.00 { 33 }
Hand 1: 25.000% 25.00% 00.00% 18 0.00 { KK+, AcKc, AdKd, AsKs, AhQh, AhJh, AhTh, AKo }
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After doing an equity calc this looks like a snap call. I don't think villain raises many suited Axhh hands below AT but even if he goes as low as A7s we still have 67% equity.
If villain isn't spewing w/ AK we still have 40% equity.
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