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[NL10] Had to fold Top pair on flop

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  1. #1

    Default [NL10] Had to fold Top pair on flop

    PartyGaming - $0.10 NL - Holdem - 7 players
    Hand converted by PokerTracker 3


    UTG: $10.51
    UTG+1: $1.90
    MP: $10.92
    Hero (CO): $5.56
    BTN: $23.98
    SB: $10.43
    BB: $10.36


    SB posts SB $0.05, BB posts BB $0.10


    Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero has Q A


    fold, UTG+1 calls $0.10, MP calls $0.10, Hero raises to $0.50, fold, fold, fold, UTG+1 calls $0.40, MP calls $0.40


    Flop: ($1.65, 3 players) J Q 3
    UTG+1 checks, MP checks, Hero bets $0.80, UTG+1 calls $0.80, MP raises to $2.38, Hero fold, UTG+1 calls $0.60 and is all-in



    Stats:

    MP:
    Hands: 327 VPIP: 20.80 PFR: 11.01

    I'll post the rest of the hand later.

    I suppose it's allright for me to fold here, but I have some questions:

    1. Is my Betsize on the flop allright?
    2. What range would you all put MP on, and what does he hold here?
    The Time To Act Is Now...
  2. #2
    spoonitnow's Avatar
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    Your flop bet size should be larger. This board has tons of draws, and you're betting into multiple people. You've given them excellent odds to call.

    The fold is correct. The MP is a loose/passive who just check/raised into multiple people on a wet flop.
  3. #3
    Especially at 2nl you should just be going for tons of value here getting called by any Qx, all conceivable draws and probably plenty of strong Jx and maybe even some PPs. I'd just pot it.

    Also why are you short stacking 10nl? Buy in for full and keep auto top up on.

    At worst I'd expect a NFD to be raising but I mostly expect to see sets and JQ.
  4. #4
    Quote Originally Posted by ImSavy View Post
    Especially at 2nl you should just be going for tons of value here getting called by any Qx, all conceivable draws and probably plenty of strong Jx and maybe even some PPs. I'd just pot it.

    Also why are you short stacking 10nl? Buy in for full and keep auto top up on.

    At worst I'd expect a NFD to be raising but I mostly expect to see sets and JQ.
    So, the bet on the flop should be something like $1,40 or so?

    I know about auto top up, but I feel that is not for me. I would fear that I would lose track on how much I've lost. I play cash for fun, and to get some rake for that rake race where I collect some extra money. I don't plan to become a cash player moving up in stakes, as I don't have the time needed to become a serious cash player. I just want to get better, and have some fun with it. I hardly see anyone auto up at the tables I play at.

    I can reveal that he did have JQ, which was what I put him on. However, for once I wish I would have donked it all in, as the A came on the River Oh well...
    The Time To Act Is Now...
  5. #5
    Razvan729's Avatar
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    I'd go with 1-1.1 since 1.4 narrows to much the calling range.
    Folding is right.
    All posts are just my own opinion about a hand or a general situation... not advices on how you should play...
  6. #6
    Your raise pre flop was good. I think that the MP has JQ or KQ, but if I was on your place I will call him, because maybe like I said he has KQ, and maybe it will be dealt Ace on the turn or on the river. So for my opinion it will not be wrong move if you call him.
  7. #7
    Auto-top up maximises value, which is why it's suboptimal to not be maxed out. How annoyed are you gonna be when your nut flush gets called by a worse flush for just 50bb?

    Bet more on flop for sure, I'd be firing around $1.10 too, you're usually ahead here, certainly when villains call, and they're not folding hearts on flop.

    Folding now is correct, this guy looks passive and probably calls his flush draws and KQ, while he spazzes with monsters. It doesn't matter what card came down on the river. You should be happier to get it in good and lose than you would be to get it in bad and win. Rely on making +ev plays, and not on getting lucky. If you have no +ev play, that's when you fold.

    Range I'd give a passive guy when he raises here is QJ 33 maybe JJ, possibly big combo draws but maybe he calls these, idk. I'm not sure how anyone can flat call KThh for example, but you can bet your life there are people calling, and they'll have stats not too dissimilar to this. Generally, when a 20/11 c/r flop, he has top pair crushed.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  8. #8
    More about having a fullstack... if you aren't full stacked, then calling pocket pairs to pre flop raises becomes a lot worse, because you implied odds are much less. But I'm guessing you're often calling pairs to see if you hit set. If all you can win is 50bb when you hit your set, then your call pre flop was very likely to be -ev, losing you money in the long run. If you have 100bb, your implied odds are better and now we can setmine more often.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  9. #9
    Quote Originally Posted by Razvan729 View Post
    I'd go with 1-1.1 since 1.4 narrows to much the calling range..
    No it doesn't. Why would you assume it does?
  10. #10
    Because raz is a nit and thinks everyone folds a flush draw at $1.40.

    I'm betting $1.10 because I want to bet my flush draws here too, but I don't want to be bluffing too much. Plus I don't want to bloat the pot too much with tptk.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  11. #11
    Razvan729's Avatar
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    If he had a vpip of 30+ i'd go w/ 1.4 but 21/11 doesnt show as a huge fish/station. He had more TPs then FDs and what ong said about flop betting range.
    All posts are just my own opinion about a hand or a general situation... not advices on how you should play...
  12. #12
    Thank you everyone for all the advice so far. I understand from this, and the other thread that i need to work on betting the flop harder when hitting, all depending on villians stats of course.

    About auto top up, yes I must admit I call with many smaller pairs in the hope of catching a set. So I must have more money at the table to win more. I'll have to work on this aswell

    I've just read in another forum some words that I thought sounded really plausable. When you play cash, you must consider the money you put on the table as already lost. That in mind you don't mind loosing them, and therefore put the money in where it's needed without the fear of loosing to much. Sounds right, doesn't it?
  13. #13
    I don't consider money that I've put in the pot as lost. It's an investment. There's a critical difference. If you put a pound in a fruit machine, you've just lost 25p or whatever. The money you put into a pot is no longer yours, but it's still significant because you need to be happy that the money you put in will return you a profit.

    As for calling pocket pairs to setmine, there's plenty of talk about this in the stickies. I'll try to run through the basics here...

    First of all, you need to know the probability of hitting your set. Well that's around 1 in 9. Obviously that means you can expect to be c/f'ing 8 times out of 9 when you face a cbet. That means that 8x the call is immediately lost, meaning you need to be winning at least this back as an average when you do hit you set, otherwise you're leaking. But of course this assumes that a set always wins. Of course it doesn't. How often your set wins and how often you get paid off enough depends on villain's range... the tighter the better. He's not paying a set off with ace high, for example. So you need to be winning more than 9x your pre flop call, quite a bit more in fact.

    As a bare minimum, you should be looking to win 14x your investment with a set. This allows some breathing space for villain folds and coolers. But if villain is loose, then you should look to win more, because all too often villain will bet flop and then fold to your raise, or stop betting if you call, limiting your win, meaning you'll need more from the top of his range to balance out your average to ensure it remains above 9x pf investment.

    The problem you have is if you're not full stacked, then winning big pots with a set is a lot harder, simply because doubling up is not winning as much as it should be.

    When you get dealt a small pair, the first thing you should be doing is looking at your stack, and looking at the stacks of those left in the hand. How much can you win if you hit the flop? Is it 14x more than the call? That's your baseline, which you then adjust according to villains left to act.

    Basically, setmining without a full stack is a huge leak. Even if you're making money somehow, you would be winning more fullstacked.
    Last edited by OngBonga; 04-26-2014 at 09:16 AM.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  14. #14
    I've just had a session today with Auto Top up, and I lost more money than I usually lose, when I have a session with a minus. I think for now, I'll continue playing with the stacks I normally play with, and start using Auto Top up when I feel more secure about it. Don't know what it is, that I don't like about Auto Top up, it's just not for me at the moment

    But as I understand, I should be more selective about what pocket pairs to call with, depending on position, and the other players stacks and stats. Then I just have to live with not winning as much as I probably should. But again, I'm not playing cash to get up in levels, I play to have some fun, and to make some money on that rake race. I just want to get better, and appreciate all the help I can get.
    The Time To Act Is Now...
  15. #15
    I don't think playing with a short stack is in itself a leak, it's just that the vast majority of people who do play short stacked are not adjusting their game to play short optimally.

    Maybe you should start a discussion on shortstacking to get a wider opinion on the matter.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  16. #16
    It is a leak because you make the vast majority of your money through people being calling stations.
  17. #17
    On the other hand, some aggro regs might play too aggressively vs shortstacks, assuming them to be fish and thinking that losses are minimised. It's certainly an interesting discussion.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  18. #18
    $1.10 sounds good, it's a standard 2/3 pot continuation bet. If you don't have a reason to choose a certain betsize then go with this.
  19. #19
    Like Ong Bonga said you should start a discussion on shortstacking, and also it will help you if you read and some articles about cash games.
    There are also a lot of poker books for cash games that I think will help you:
    Cash Games (How to Win at No-Limit Hold'em Money Games) Vol.1 by Dan Harrington;
    Harrington on Cash Games, Volume II: How to Play No-Limit Hold 'em Cash Games by Bill Robertie;
    Harrington on Online Cash Games; 6-Max No-Limit Hold 'em by Dan Harrington;

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