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[5NL] AKo 4b pre, jam flop?

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  1. #1
    Mury's Avatar
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    Default [5NL] AKo 4b pre, jam flop?

    SB: $19.56 (391.2 bb) {47/23, 7/36 (19.4%) 3b, no reads on how he plays to 4b, 42% fold to CB, 93 hands
    BB: $14.23 (284.6 bb)
    Hero (MP): $5.22 (104.4 bb)
    CO: $11.51 (230.2 bb)
    BTN: $4.91 (98.2 bb) {48/17, 23 hands}

    Preflop: Hero is MP with A K
    Hero raises to $0.20, CO folds, BTN calls $0.20, SB raises to $0.80, BB folds, Hero raises to $2.20, BTN folds, SB calls $1.40

    Flop: ($4.70) 3 6 T (2 players)
    SB checks, Hero bets $3.01 and is all-in ??

    Okay so I've broken down opp's range as such:

    CALL 4B: 93 99+,A9s+,KQs,ATo+,74o
    CALL: 48 QQ-99,AQs+,AKo,74o
    RAISE: 6 KK+
    FLOP CALL: 29 QQ-99,AKs,7h4d,7s4d,7s4h,7c4d,7c4h,7c4s

    I added the combos of 74o in there just to account for any trash he will likely show up with from time to time. Based on this, I've calculated our eV to be +$2.13. However when I moved opp's folding freq to 0, I found we still had a +eV bet:



    I don't understand why we still have a +eV bet even when we have no fold equity here? I would expect it to be hugely -eV! Is my formula off? I don't think so:

    =(B4*B1)+(D4*B5*(B1+B2))+(D4*D5*(-B2))

    But anyways my main question in this hand is is jamming our best option here? I think we get bet into a fair bit OTT by his range when we check the flop and we just have to fold... or is 4b pre a bad option considering he's only stacking off KK+?

    ...thoughts?
  2. #2
    I'd normally expect to see TT+ and AK, with AQs and KQs pretty often, even against a guy like this.

    Jamming is mandatory imo given stacks, pot size and how much fold equity we are likely to have against the range I give him. Have a think about whether you'd need to call villain's shove too if he donk jammed: the answer is probably yes (not done the maths, but we're likely 25%+ against his range). Therefore shoving is going to be okay.

    4bet sizing is too big btw, as we end up making our bluffs more expensive and committing ourselves with a much wider range than we probably should. It's a large part of the reason why we'd need to call off a donk jam from villain too.
  3. #3
    I think that you didn't have to raise $2.20. Maybe it will be better if you only made a call. About the villain I think that he probably have a pocket pair like JJ,QQ or something. For that reason maybe you didn't have to go all-in. However there are two more cards to be dealt, so I hope that you hit Ace or King on the turn or on the river.
  4. #4
    spoonitnow's Avatar
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    If he always calls, you're putting in less than 30% of the money on the flop while getting out 32% of it (your equity). That's why it's +EV to shove regardless. The question is if it's more +EV than checking.
  5. #5
    I think your play is fine here. I would like better 4bet-allin to make it easier.
    Last edited by kingofdimonds; 07-18-2014 at 02:35 AM.
  6. #6
    4 bet is definitely the correct play,, but I think you could have 4bet smaller.....if u click it back to villain somewhere between $1.40 and $1.60.. you allow yourself the chance to c-bet the flop without having to shove and still be able to get folds from small pocket pairs that did not flop a set, A(x) hands (except for A10), and KQ. Also with a smaller 4bet you allow the villain a chance to shove all weaker aces and a majority of his bluff range.
  7. #7
    allin
  8. #8
    I think shoving is fine, but the question is if checking is better or if betting some amount like 0.80 is better (to induce shoves from AQ/AJ/KQ type stuff).
    Quote Originally Posted by Jay-Z
    I'm a couple hands down and I'm tryin' to get back
    I gave the other grip, I lost a flip for five stacks

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