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[10NL] AQs...Good spot for a jam?

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  1. #1

    Default [10NL] AQs...Good spot for a jam?

    SB is 35/27 over 116 hands. First 3bet.

    BB is 24/16 over 1,000 hands.

    PokerStars - $0.10 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
    Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

    Hero (BTN): $24.81
    SB: $13.07
    BB: $14.05
    UTG: $10.78
    CO: $10.00

    SB posts SB $0.05, BB posts BB $0.10

    Pre Flop: (pot: $0.15) Hero has Q A

    fold, fold, Hero raises to $0.25, SB raises to $1.10, BB calls $1.00, Hero calls $0.85

    Flop: ($3.30, 3 players) 9 5 7
    SB bets $1.60, BB raises to $3.20, Hero ???

    Equilab says;

    www.pokerstrategy.com
    Board: 9d5d7c
    Equity Win Tie
    BU 39.25% 38.35% 0.89% { AdQd }
    SB 24.63% 23.37% 1.27% { 99+, AKs, AQo+ }
    BB 36.12% 35.56% 0.56% { QQ-99 }

    We're ahead of both players ranges here. I think BB has capped his range, I hardly ever expect to see KK+ here and mostly 99-QQ although even 99 is a little loose to cold call a 3bet pre-flop. I think it's very difficult for villain (BB) to call with TT-JJ especially if he has no diamond. If SB was splashing about and we assume he is going to fold - we're still 47/53 against BB's range.

    Time to jam?
    Currently grinding live cash games. Life is good.
  2. #2
    I'm just really confused by the raise but I can't imagine jamming is <0 ev and I don't really see a reason to call. I think our jamming range here is super strong so we should have a decent amount of fold equity with BB having 100bb behind.
  3. #3
    spoonitnow's Avatar
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    On the topic of calling vs shoving, I think you can probably shove and get the SB to fold some shit that he shouldn't fold in terms of maximizing your own EV. BB definitely has a big pair though with the possible random set here and there where he decided to play 99 goofy or something pre.
  4. #4
    I really don't think I'm calling this pre vs some dude who just 3b for the first time in 116 hands.

    Post flop, I'm not sure we're ever folding out two people here with a shove, and BB's stats make it look like he's flopped a set. I mean he surely has a HUD and knows this is SB's first 3b. Are we happy to shove when we usually get one call, and rarely get none or two? I'm not. I'm calling flop if I get here and probably shoving if the action comes back to me.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong

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