$5 - 6max - Zone

Bovada Zone , $0.05 BB (6 handed) -

BB ($5.39)
Hero (UTG) ($7.85)
MP ($7.72)
CO ($2.90)
Button ($5.20)
SB ($3.18)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with Q, K
Hero raises $0.20, MP calls $0.20, 3 folds, BB calls $0.15

Flop: ($0.62) J, K, 8 (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $0.45, MP calls $0.45, BB calls $0.45

Turn: ($1.97) 3 (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $1.50, 1 fold, BB calls $1.50

River: ($4.97) 2 (2 players)
BB bets $3.24 (All-In), Hero calls $3.24

Total pot: $11.45



ok this is the type of situation I was talking about in one of my posts, when villain x/c,x/c lead pot (or AI in this case)

lots of draws on flop in villains preflop flatting range as well as some hands we can get value from.
{AJs,KJs-KTs,QTs+,JTs,T9s,AJo,KJo-KTo,QTo+,JTo} about 100 combos.

that assumption is very accurate based on 17k hands in HEM.

but that's also assuming villains isn't a total fish who calls Any two suited from the blinds. which he may very well be but would you guys snap fold this?. also AA-KK,AK are 100% out of the question as 100BBers with re-raise pre.( ok its prob. like 98%, but you get the picture)

Yikes. You can tell it is a tough hand as no one has answered yet.

It's hard for me because the only equivalent I have is someone I've never seen before just sat down and this is their first hand.

You only have to be correct 29% of the time to be profitable if you call. So, then I ask myself "what hands does he play this way, especially on the flop when it is 3 way?" With your bet and a call, does he slowplay a set on a connected board? Some players do...they just never raise a set. But, those players will usually raise the turn, esp when the turn brings a flush draw. How about 2 pair? I would think 2 pair has even more to fear, given that an A or Q might kill KJ or J8. So, I would again expect a raise before the river...again "usually" for the "average player".

How about AK? yeah, he may well play it this way. Raising the flop may be over-repping his hand. Then, on the river, he's afraid you might check back.

But, I also see a lot of guys turn over QT, T9, even AQ in these situations, esp if they are spades. Heck, Kx might just figure he doesn't want to fold so he might as well bet out. It's not usually a smart play, but I see it all the time.

Ok, I've talked myself into it. I would call. I'm not sure there are twice as many combos that beat us as combos that are bluffs/poor value bets. On my good nights, I see QTss. On my bad nights, I see AK.

REALLY interested to see what others say. I am NOT confident in this situation. I was hoping as I typed it out, it would all become clear and easy. Nope.

Quick followup. I checked my database for cbet flop and turn and donked into w a large bet on the river. It's not a large sample, surprisingly. 19 times I folded. 29 times I called. I lost money no matter what I did, but I lost a lot less when I called. Again, that is not a large sample. One thing I did see is that it was almost always a situation where the villain caught a better hand on the river. Only a couple of times, was it a slowplayed strong hand. And, there were a lot more situations where the villain missed a draw.

So, according to my small sample, it was +EV to make the call because I lost less when I did call. It's just that the money already invested means you are not going to come out ahead overall no matter what you do.

Again, I would be interested in the thoughts/results of others.

Ugh tough spot. This feels like something like AQss, ATss, Q9ss or 9Tss or something like that to me.

Not enough hands make sense to me that he could be doing this with for value, so I'm clicking call.

I assumed hes going to have some value a non-zero % but mostly bluffs..AND he IS the type to call with any 2 suited..lol

I want to fold, but it's anonzoom and I just haven't a clue how crazy people are playing.

Originally Posted by acg123

AND he IS the type to call with any 2 suited..lol

How do you know this?

You should follow your database* I suppose but could the situation have been avoided in the first place?

I find myself dubious about the Turn bet. 3-way with top pair but not top kicker... AK should have raised preflop really but you never know.
The 3 doesn't really change anything but that just means you can expect at least one call and you've inflated the pot to the point of being All In with just top pair. Half Pot on the Flop might have been better too. I don't think you want to be risking a stack on one pair so you have to play slower earlier or be ready to give up.
Alternatively these hands might be the price you pay for the ones you take down on the Turn but I suspect that's not a good trade-off.

I would expect there to be modest pocket pairs in those calling hands (from people presumably thinking your CB is meaningless) but those should give up on Turn.

I would expect your flatting range info not to be terribly helpful as there will be such a wide variety of players contributing to it: you can't just assume this villain is in the middle of it (well you can -possibly have to- but it's not a reliable guide).


* Was there any pattern to whether you called or not? Whether you won the call? It might be that you should be calling with 2pair+ or some such (though obviously it'll be board-dependent too).

Originally Posted by OngBonga

How do you know this?

because I called river.

Originally Posted by Timlagor

I find myself dubious about the Turn bet. 3-way with top pair but not top kicker... AK should have raised preflop really but you never know.

theres a super small % of villains that flat AK IP, almost next to nothing OOP. villain 1 being IP vs. hero could have AK but I assume he would raise flop, or flat flop and raise turn.



The 3 doesn't really change anything but that just means you can expect at least one call and you've inflated the pot to the point of being All In with just top pair.

majority of the time this is good enough, villains average call down range include TPWK (hands likeKT,KJ,K7,K3s,K2s, etc.) second pair whether on the board or a PP, and nutter hands like Top set where they have the deck crippled.





I would expect there to be modest pocket pairs in those calling hands (from people presumably thinking your CB is meaningless) but those should give up on Turn.

agreed.




* Was there any pattern to whether you called or not? Whether you won the call? It might be that you should be calling with 2pair+ or some such (though obviously it'll be board-dependent too).

yes, its both. 2pair+ unless a flush hits or backdoor straight then 2pr would be no good. this hand concreted my read that villains take this line with either top set, or weak made hands that cant raise because they would only get called by better that got there on the river. for instance, 22, K2s,J2s,82s. it sounds dumb but the majority of villains will just flop a pair and think "I can beat a bluff so Im going to call him at least twice" then when they hit 2pr+ , they spazz shove. or if flop is 862r they float two streets with AK,AQ,AJ and when a A,K,Q, or J show up on turn or river, they once again spazz bet, either by shoving or leading for 2BBs over pot.

word.

Fold pre /thread
As played call. It´s close but I expect this unknown villain to bluff enough.

Originally Posted by acg123

word.

So the conclusion is that you should fold these with less than 2pair?
...but you're happy with your Turn Bet?

Originally Posted by Timlagor

So the conclusion is that you should fold these with less than 2pair?
...but you're happy with your Turn Bet?

yes. checking turn would be bad, so many rivers that put me in a tough spot vs. a PSB. ( A,Q,T,9,7 or spade. that's 20 cards plus 6 spades.) 26/46 = 56.6% of the time ill be in a tough spot with a "hero calling" hand. 43.4% im calling and still could have the worst hand so I wont win 43.4%.

if I bet 2/3 pot OTT I have some fold equity, and when a (A,Q,T,9,7 or spade) hit im probably folding anyway to a shove.

I agree though that the most EV thing we could probably do is fold pre. the games are unknown and its much easier to just play tighter when its anon.

conclusion:
bet turn, fold river.