$4nl AA in the big blind

I find myself getting into bad situations playing big pocket pairs on a paired board.

Pre: After calling my 3-bet, I figure his range to be AA-JJ, AK-AJ.
Flop: Standard c-bet.
Turn: Check out of fear of check-raise. Call his bet since that's about the bet size I would have made. This is the trouble spot for me. I assume the range to be about the same since I don't really have a read on him.
River: I assume I'm ahead, but bet small in case he shoves.

888 Poker - $0.04 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

MP: 74.25 BB (VPIP: 69.70, PFR: 11.11, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 99)
CO: 80 BB (VPIP: 24.00, PFR: 4.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 25)
BTN: 87 BB (VPIP: 44.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 25)
SB: 38.25 BB (VPIP: 40.38, PFR: 30.77, 3Bet Preflop: 11.11, Hands: 52)
Hero (BB): 122.75 BB
UTG: 108.25 BB (VPIP: 45.45, PFR: 11.36, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 44)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has A A

UTG raises to 3 BB, fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 9 BB, UTG calls 6 BB

Flop: (18.5 BB, 2 players) Q 6 Q
Hero bets 9.25 BB, UTG calls 9.25 BB

Turn: (37 BB, 2 players) 7
Hero checks, UTG bets 25 BB, Hero calls 25 BB

River: (87 BB, 2 players) 7
Hero bets 39.75 BB, UTG calls 39.75 BB

Villain looks like a fish over 44 hands and one that is probably going to make calling mistakes. Do you think you are ahead OTT? If yes, then bet and if you get check raised then it is an easy fold. The flop looks scary but remember that when calculating equity there are less Qx combos so without looking at equilab/flopzilla I would guess with that range you posted then yes, you are indeed ahead OTT. Not so sure about the River bet. Are we only getting called by better?

(Disclaimer: 2nl player so may not be 100% correct advice)

This all depends on how wide he's opening UTG and calling the 3bet preflop, how many Qs he's likely to have in his range, and whether he's the type to call 3 streets with an underpair to the board on this runout imo. If he's going to station JJ-88 for 3 streets here I think we can happily bet/fold 3 streets.

Even against a continuing range of {QQ-66,AQs,KQs,QJs,AQo,KQo,QhJd,QhJs} on the river your hand has 53% equity. This contains all combos of AQ-KQ, half the combos of QJ, 77-66, and without the possibility of him having AA-KK.

With AA-KK in his range you have 58.65%, and discounting half the combos of kings you have 56%.

Realistically, I don't think he has that many Qs in his range. I would give him continuing range of {QQ-66,AQs,KQs,AQo} on the river which gives you 68% equity and a clear value bet. I like your river sizing as I'd imagine his calling range to be fairly elastic, your line looks fishy as hell, and he might think that you think you're trying to push him off a chop.

You have to lead because he's checking behind everything you beat, and literally has zero bluffs in his range.

Oh yeah, don't post results.

Can anyone tell me I'm using the alpha value correctly here. It's been a while.

On the river we're playing 65bb effective stacks and have a 87bb pot.

From Villain's pov, if he jams 65bb against Hero's 39.75bb bet then

25.25/(25.25+191.75) = 0.12

25.25 is the bet over and above the 39.75 call. 191.75 is Hero's bet + 65bb shove + 87bb pot.

So if Hero is folding more than 12% of the time Villain can jam atc profitably on the river? And villain should bet 12% of the total of his value bets as bluffs to be balanced?

If Hero never checks QQ, AdKd, or AcKc on the turn. Assuming he isn't 3betting a bluffing range. Then Hero's river betting range is solely AA-KK. If Hero is folding more than 1.44 combos of KK then he can be jammed on profitably with atc.

If Villain's value range is AQ, KQs, QQ, 77. (14 combos) then he should jam 1.68 combos to be balanced. However Hero is going to be folding more than 12% judging from his comments in the OP "River: I assume I'm ahead, but bet small in case he shoves."

So if Hero only calls with Aces then he's folding 50% of the time and Villain can turn hands such as 88 99 into bluffs on the river. If Villain bluffs 100% of the time with 88 then he's bluffing 30% of the time to capitalise on Hero's folding too much. So 30% of the time Hero picks off a bluff and 70% of the time he's paying off a value bet?

My math could be wrong here. My head is spinning. Is that right?

You need to 3-bet larger in general. I would go so far as to say that you should 3-bet even larger than that in this situation because our opponent seems like a loose/passive who will call this 3-bet with a very large portion of his opening range.

In the future, don't post the results of the hand because it will skew the advice that you get.

Turn + River combination is probably the least desirable between betting turn + betting river, checking turn and checking river and checking turn + betting river.

I don't hate the turn check, but I think you should follow that up again with a river check. By leading river again, you aren't letting him bluff. Betting river prevents him from taking a cheap showdown with some hands, but in most cases ppl will take that showdown on the turn when you give them the chance.

Thanks for the replies. I will omit results next time. Is there a way to spoiler them, or should I just wait until discussion has passed to post the result?

As for the hand:

I know I botched the turn. As soon as the hand was finished, I marked it to post here. Being first to act I probably should bet out on the turn and if I get raised, let it go. The river bet was trying to make up for the mistake on the previous street. I just wasn't sure what I would do should I check and he bets. I assume I should call depending on the bet size, but that's where I start having trouble. I downloaded open office last night so I can make a spreadsheet for distributions as per "Harrington on Online Cash Games; 6-max No Limit Holdem'".

Spoon:
I always bet 3x the initial raise. I keep my 3-bets consistent because I like the 3-bet light often enough. Not that the fish pay that much attention. How much should I be looking to 3-bet?

If you're going to be OOP postflop it pays to 3b bigger, but also against fish just go ahead and build pots with big hands.

Having a 45/11 isolated with AA screams big 3bet imo. Do you have any stats/reads on his 3b calling range? Because I suspect that you're giving him way too much credit with {AA-JJ, AK-AJ}. Knowing his AF or some other post-flop stats might also help interpret his turn-bet, but I would assume he's very loose passive post-flop as well. I personally don't like the x/c on the turn. Not betting seems to be a waste of value as he's probably calling with {99-JJ,89,45,XhXh,XcXc} and is probably going to check a draw behind a lot of the time. I'm not sure what to make of his turn-bet tbh. He's clearly fishy so he might bet {99-TT} there, but again, I would have to know how active he is post-flop. As played and without further reads/stats I'm always calling the turn and betting the river.