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Nuts flash-draw. Would you choose bet on turn?

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  1. #1

    Default Nuts flash-draw. Would you choose bet on turn?

    macropoker.com
    MrUpStreak (UTG) ($10, (100bb))
    pokerdaxs (MP1) ($17.45, (174.5bb))
    BaQ88 (CO) ($10.05, (100.5bb))
    Joffster (BU) ($12.01, (120.1bb))
    HERO (SB) ($11.19, (111.9bb))
    exdaboo (BB) ($20.77, (207.7bb))

    Pre-Flop: ($0.15, 6 players) HERO is SB

    MrUpStreak folds, 3 folds, HERO raises to $0.30, exdaboo calls $0.20,

    Flop: ($0.6, 2 players)

    HERO bets $0.37, exdaboo raises to $1, HERO calls $0.63,

    Turn: ($2.6, 2 players)

    HERO checks,exdaboo bets $1.30, HERO calls $1.30,

    River: ($5.2, 2 players)

    HERO checks,exdaboo checks,

    Final Pot: $5.2, (52bb)
    HERO shows three of a kind, Aces)


    exdaboo shows three of a kind, Aces - King+Jack kicker)


    exdaboo wins $4.97, (49.7bb) (net +$2.37)

    HERO lost $2.6, (26bb)
  2. #2
    MadMojoMonkey's Avatar
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    Never post results.

    Reads on Villain?

    I'd just fold PRE. K8s is really marginal OOP. Depending on how trim you play your off-suit hands, it could be a reasonable hand in your range. I'm hoping that K8s is the absolute bottom of your range here? If so, then PRE is OK.

    C-bet OTF is fine, sizing is a bit on the small side, considering the wet board. I don't know what you think Villain has OTF, so I'm not sure if you think you can win with a K or not. Either way, you're relying on implied odds to make a profitable call to the raise. Problem is, without reads, I don't know if Villain will shut down when the flush completes or not, which makes all the difference in the world here.

    EZ fold OTT. Now the paired board means even if you catch your flush, it might lose to a boat. You're not getting the right price to draw (even with maximum implied odds) and there is little chance you are ahead, so EZ fold.

    Never post results.
  3. #3
    supa's Avatar
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    Iunno. BvB preflop seems fine. 1/2 pot flop cbet is my standard here. We have 35% equity against even nutted ranges so I think we're fine with expressed odds when we call the flop raise. Fold turn. Never post results
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  4. #4
    Reads / stats on villain? Pre is fine unless he's some crazy aggro.

    I would rather bet turn than c/c turn. Bet $1.3-1.4 but c/f river unimproved.
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  5. #5
    flop seems like a 3bet to me, he can get it in with worse draws and he's full of shit a ton here, just doesn't have much of a made hand raising range. We're OOP and going to get owned on a lot of runouts.

    I'd either 3bet/get-it-in on flop or call flop c/jam (or raise w/e) turn, especially on a card that removes even more made-hand combos from his range. Think PF is totally fine btw.
  6. #6
    Reads on villain are critical, OP. If you don't have HUD stats, do you have notes? Have you noticed if he's playing lots of hands or is tight? Does he bluff post flop very often? If you've played more than 20-30 hands with him and have no idea if he's tight or loose, then you really need to start learning how to profile villains before worrying about whether a semibluff is good here or not. Semibluff is good vs some people and not vs others.

    If this guy is playing solid, as played I can't fold this turn fast enough. Paired ace is a disaster unless there's enough hands in his range that also hate this ace. Can't see it myself. There's maybe 3 combos of diamonds he has. Otherwise he has trips or boat. If he's playing any suited crap, well that changes things a lot.

    Quote Originally Posted by bigspenda73 View Post
    flop seems like a 3bet to me
    I dig this.
    Last edited by OngBonga; 05-18-2013 at 09:37 PM.
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