Can SNG variance be this bad?

[misterthou]

Is it possible to have bad runs in 9-man SNGs that swing upwards of 20 buy-in loses? Or, am I just terrible?

I know my sample sizes are smallish, but it's just hard to keep the confidence up after these results.

I logged 42 games at $5.5 on Stars with an ROI of 17%. Moved up to $11 after depositing some more cash, lost a few buy-ins and decided to move down to $6.50 turbos. My first 102 games at $6.50 hovered between 10% and 15% ROI. However, over the last 21 games I've placed OTM 20 times with 1 first. 10% over 100 games is 10 buy-ins gained, 20 OTM finishes is 20 buy-ins lost. Now I'm negative.

Can STT SNGs really be this punishing?

[mikeneron]

I am facing the same situation as you. Seems that whenever I have a medium pocket pair hand against 2 overcards for all my chips (<10 BB), one of the overcards hits and I am out. Supposed to be close to a coin flip, but when this happens multiple times in a row combined with running into higher hands for all your chips preflop, it can really rack up the out of money finishes in a hurry. Mine has lasted a good month...only good thing is that I haven't lost a ton, so am hoping it turns around here shortly so I can get back on track. I feel your pain. I need a punching bag close by cause sometimes I feel like punching something

[fjuanl]

I really havent heard any stories where getting ITM 1 time in 21 games was considered normal variance. The highest streak of being out of the money that I've heard from winning players is around 12-14. I would say this is either a combination of variance and tilt or you just have leaks in your game. Post a trimmed hand history and you'll get some good feedback

http://poker-tools.flopturnriver.com...-Converter.php

[hangchiong]

how many tables do you play at once?
i suppose turbo game has more variance than normal ones due to push/shove preflop game.

[misterthou]

how many tables do you play at once?
i suppose turbo game has more variance than normal ones due to push/shove preflop game.

I play 6-8 tables, not adding new ones until I finish an entire set. Of the 120 at $6.50 around 90 are 6-tabling.

Also, I guess I didn't look too deep into my losing steak and just presented things as a general ran bad for 20ish games. I actually took the time to look into things in more depth.

Here's a more specific breakdown at $6.50 turbos.
97 games that played as I expected. Around 55% ITM, 12% ROI.
Followed by: 5 OTM, 1 2nd, 11 OTM, 1 1st, and then 6 OTM.

So, I guess a specific losing run was less than 11 games so far, but overall the last 24 look kinda bleak: 9% ITM, -72% ROI.

I'll post some tournament summaries when I'm off work later tonight.

[Illfavor]

That doesn't sound too bad to me. Your sample size is tiny, so any losing streaks will be amplified dramatically. I've had streaks very similar to this. If you're at -70% ROI after 50 games, then contact Houston.

[fjuanl]

Hard to tell, but with 55% ITM and only 12% ROI, I'm guessing you have an incredibly high amount of 3rds. You might be playing the bubble too tightly or getting too aggressive when you get ITM

[bjsaust]

I think I maxed at 19 game OOTM and a 25 buyin downswing.

Thats over a relatively small sample.

[misterthou]

I've converted 4 of my last 6 OTM games. I can't post links yet (yes, even to FTR) due to my post count. So, here's my best effort:
FTR/Online-Poker-Tournament-4027.html
FTR/Online-Poker-Tournament-4028.html
FTR/Online-Poker-Tournament-4029.html
FTR/Online-Poker-Tournament-4030.html

Reviewing these four I don't see any major leaks except for the last one, where I played flat stupid after my AK vs AJ badbeat. In this game, I think having the big stack (5x my stack after the badbeat) to my left made me tighten up too much -- blinding down to an obvious odds call where I was dominated. I should have pushed my K9s and T8s hands, if not one or two more.

In any case, if someone wants to review these and give me feedback that would be great. They're pretty representative of my usual play. Would be great to identify leaks I'm unaware of that I can work on.

[FlyingSaucy]

Turbos especially you will run into this.

[fjuanl]

Your preflop play was ok, but your biggest leak was postflop play. You don't get value on good hands and are a little too aggressive with mediocre hands in multiway pots


4027

Hand 1 - Really odd bet on the turn...you should bet 1/2 to 2/3rds of the pot. Flop check raise seems fine given the weak lead from manzilla

Hand 3 - First I dont like the preflop raise. If it was folded to you obviously raising on the button with A8 is fine, but against a UTG limper I don't like it (even if you know UTG is a loose player). I would fire out around 500 on the flop to represent a made hand

4028

Hand 3 - Even with good pot odds, Q3 does not play well in multiway pots. Unless you hit trips or 2 pair, your never really too confident in your hand. Its also a disadvantage being out of position. I think its best to be pretty tight here and be very careful postflop with middle and top pair

Hand 4 - I dont like this preflop raise because:

a) JTo doesnt fare well against the ranges that most players call with
b) Theres too many opponents left to act
c) There is an 8BB stack behind you, which means you'll be pot commited if that person pushes all in
d) You only have 14BB's, which can result in a lot of awkward postflop decisions

Hand 7 - Fine

4029

Hand 1 - Ouch, well played tho

Hand 2 - I think this is fine

Hand 3 - After seeing the ATx flop, I'd rather just check/fold with 5 people seeing the flop

Hand 5 - I don't like raising preflop and folding to the shoves of the short-stacks in the blinds because you lose such a big percentage of your stack without getting to showdown. Depending on their calling ranges, I would think this would be a profitable push

Hand 7 - Pretty awkward spot with only 10BB's. I'm only pushing or folding here. Some people would recommend folding preflop, but it should be close either way

Hand 8 - I'm probably folding this knowing that the big blind is going to be calling every time and 22 is never a large favorite against random hands

Hand 20 - Hard to imagine folding this, but I think its very close. You should probably be folding everything but 99+ AK/AQ

4030

Hand 1 - With 5 players in the pot, theres no way I would be betting with second pair here. I'd also check/fold to decent sized bets with top pair bad kicker

Hands 2-3 seem fine

Hand 4 - Against a late position raiser your AK should be in really good shape, so I would reraise to around 320 and bet any flop. As played, your flop raise is wayy too small and you lost a lot of value by checking the turn and river. I would have liked to see a flop raise of around 350 instead

Hand 7 - Not only is your hand pretty weak, theres still 3 players left to act after your push. I'm only playing roughly 99+, AQ+ here

T7 (sb) - This should be a profitable push with a 10BB stack in the BB who should be calling you really tight. If this seems wrong, I'd look into getting the trial version of SNGWiz and reading up about ICM

Hand 10 - Looks good to me with two 10bb stacks in the blinds

K9s - definetly a push there...you might have missed a few other pushes too

[misterthou]

Thanks for your feedback, fjuanl. Very appreciated!

4027

Hand 1 - Really odd bet on the turn...you should bet 1/2 to 2/3rds of the pot. Flop check raise seems fine given the weak lead from manzilla

Yeah, no idea what I was doing on the turn and river here. I think him calling my check-raise made me question being ahead. But, retarded play nevertheless.

4028

Hand 4 - I dont like this preflop raise because:

a) JTo doesnt fare well against the ranges that most players call with
b) Theres too many opponents left to act
c) There is an 8BB stack behind you, which means you'll be pot commited if that person pushes all in
d) You only have 14BB's, which can result in a lot of awkward postflop decisions

I have ~14bb left and the stacks are roughly equal amongst the remaining 4 players left to act. I've always felt this is a good place to put in a raise as a steal attempt since it's the last time I'll likely be able to raise/fold without being committed. I don't expect a flat call often here and expect to either take down the pot or fold to a shove. If there is a call, the flop is easy to evaluate given a connected and likely not dominated hand. This is actually a play I do a lot. Is my fold equity not enough here to be profitable?

4029

Hand 7 - Pretty awkward spot with only 10BB's. I'm only pushing or folding here. Some people would recommend folding preflop, but it should be close either way

This is a clear push for me, not sure why I didn't here. Perhaps I was distracted and thought I was deeper than 10bb.

Hand 8 - I'm probably folding this knowing that the big blind is going to be calling every time and 22 is never a large favorite against random hands

Yeah, you're right. We have 18.45% equity if we fold, 11.76% if we push and lose against BB, and 23.83% if we push and win against BB. We need a hand that wins more than 55.34% of the time which 22 doesn't against ATC. Looks like 44 is the minimum pair here that's profitable.

4030
Yeah, forgot the T7 and think there was another one somewhere in there too. I reviewed this in SNGEGT yesterday so I know there were a few pushing leaks. I believe I passed on the T7 simply because I pushed 3 hands prior and wanted to not look like I was pushing in every obvious spot. Although, that's stupid and I probably shouldn't worry about that should I?

[fjuanl]

The main reason why I didnt like the JTo preflop raise was because of the 8BB stack in the SB. If SB shoves, the pot is giving you 2.5/1 odds to call, which prices you in. All of a sudden you can lose 60% of your stack just because you wanted to steal 150 chips. I don't have a big problem with this play if all the remaining players are tight and have mid/large stacks

[oshow]

I had a 16 buy in drop yesterday..I was going crazy. It was a combo of mistakes and just being unlucky...when i get my posts up to the point where I can post trny trims I will